AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares eased from a near two-year high on Thursday as a long-awaited U.S. tax cut plan failed to inspire investors, though sentiment remained supported by global growth prospects and receding worries about political risks in Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump proposed slashing tax rates for businesses to 15% from the current 35% for public corporations and 39.6 percent for small businesses, and on overseas corporate profits returned to the country. But the one-page plan, billed as the biggest tax cut in history by the administration, offered no specifics on how it would be paid for without increasing the deficit, which many analysts think would be difficult to achieve. The world's share markets have been bolstered by relief over the first round of the French presidential election and also by signs of solid global economic growth in recent months. Asian shares have been helped by an upturn in global trade but the U.S. economy is a big wild card going forward because of the uncertainty on its fiscal and trade policies, said Alex Wolf, senior emerging market economist at Standard Life Investments in Hong Kong. China's growth accelerated at the fastest pace since mid-2015 in the January-March quarter, while South Korea on Thursday also reported stronger than expected first-quarter growth, fueled by improving global demand. In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to have slowed, with economists expecting the advance reading of U.S. GDP on Friday to show growth slowing to 1.2% in the first quarter from 2.1% in the preceding quarter. Still, investors remained upbeat overall, not least because the steady recovery in the jobs market over the past several years has brought down the jobless rate to its lowest in almost a decade. The U.S. Congress inched toward a deal to fund the government through September but was preparing to possibly extend a midnight Friday deadline in order to wrap up negotiations and avoid an imminent government shutdown. Analysts noted, however, that any breakdown in talks and a subsequent government shutdown could raise fresh worries about Trump's ability to push his agenda down the road. The disappointment on the tax plan prompted falls in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar. The ECB is scheduled to hold a policy meeting on Thursday, with the focus on the potential for a scaling back of monetary stimulus in the months ahead. The yen showed no reaction after the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged, as expected, with traders looking for more clues from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's news conference later in the day.
  • Gold prices rebounded mildly in Asia on Thursday as investors came in after a recent sharp dip following the French election results and as investors took positions on potential geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula where the U.S. has moved to setup a sophisticated anti-missile system to deter North Korea from launching ballistic missiles. Overnight, gold prices traded slightly below breakeven on Wednesday, weighed by a shift in sentiment towards riskier assets, as investors digested bullish comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and awaited a tax reform update from President Donald Trump. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed Monday, that the tax reform plan would cut the business tax rate to 15 percent. Mnuchin’s comments came ahead of an eagerly awaited update from President Donald Trump on his tax reform plan. Expectations of a bullish tax reform plan, underpinned a recovery in the dollar, which weighed on dollar denominated gold. Gold is sensitive to moves in the dollar – A rise in the dollar makes dollar-denominated assets such as gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, decreases demand. Gold prices have been under pressure since pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election. Recent polls predict an easy victory for Emmanuel Macron in the runoff vote for the French presidency, scheduled for May 7.
  • Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a general sentiment of globally bloated markets, though traders said that prices seemed to have found support around current levels. Traders said the falls in recent weeks were due to a realization that global oil markets remained oversupplied, despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year to tighten the market and prop up prices. While the United States reported a drop in its commercial crude oil stocks on Wednesday, albeit from near-record highs, its gasoline inventories surged as refiners produced more fuel than the market could consume. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production continued its relentless rise, and is now up 10 percent since mid-2016 at 9.27 million bpd, at comparable levels to the peak oil glut between late 2014 and early 2016. Rystad Energy expects U.S. shale oil output to grow by 100,000 bpd each month for the rest of this year and into 2018 if oil prices hold around $50-$55 a barrel, well above estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for monthly gains of about 29,000 bpd in 2017 and 57,000 bpd in 2018. Still, with an expectation that OPEC would lobby for an extension of the production cuts to cover all of 2017, analysts said there was support for prices around current levels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th April 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,280 1,289 1,300
Silver-XAG 17.70 18.05 18.95-19.20
Crude Oil 50.05 51.10-51.90 52.50
EURO/USD 1.0905 1.0955-1.1000 1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2950 1.3015 1.3070
USD/JPY 111.40 112.00-112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th April 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,259-1,248 1,239 1,232
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.00 16.60 16.10
Crude Oil 49.00-48.30 47.60 47.00
EURO/USD 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750 1.0710
GBP/USD 1.2840 1.2775 1.2700-1.2630
USD/JPY 110.90-110.50 109.90 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (27th April 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1270.55/oz and intraday low of US$1265.38/oz. Gold down by 0.386% at US$1268.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1314 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1248-1230. Buy above 1260-1232 with risk below 1232, targeting 1277-1289-1300 and 1307-1314.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,259-1,248
S2     1,239
S3     1,232
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,280
R2     1,289
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.582

Buy
20-DMA   1266.81 Buy
50-DMA  

1246.17

Buy
100-DMA   1216.03 Buy
200-DMA   1253.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.615 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.346 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down on Wednesday from made its intraday high of US$17.62/oz after setting intraday low of US$17.63/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.512% at US$17.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.93), breakage above will lead to 18.05-18.50. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.70-16.15 targeting 18.05-18.45-18.90 and 19.20-19.50; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 18.05-19.50 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.70-17.30 and 17.00-16.70-16.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-17.00
S2     16.60
S3     16.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.70
R2     18.05
R3     18.95-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.817 Buy
20-DMA   18.08 Sell
50-DMA   17.86 Buy
100-DMA   17.35 Buy
200-DMA   17.93 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.379 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.051 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$50.17/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.93/bbl and settled down by 0.202% at US$49.24/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 51.55 which is a major support and breakage above will call for 52.00-50.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.05-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting 49.00-48.30 and 47.60-47.00. Buy above 49.00-47.00 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 50.05-51.10-51.90 and 52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.00-48.30
S2     47.60
S3     47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.05
R2     51.10-51.90
R3     52.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.716 Sell
20-DMA   51.18 Buy
50-DMA   51.11 Buy
100-DMA   51.97 Buy
200-DMA   49.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.230 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.329 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0855/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0950/EUR and settled the day down by 0.202% at US$1.0902/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0651), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0905-1.1060 targeting 1.0840-1.0800 and 1.0750-1.0700-1.0635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1060. Buy above 1.0840-1.0800 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0750-1.0800 and 1.0840-1.0905-1.0930.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0840-1.0800
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0710

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0905
R2     1.0955-1.1000
R3     1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.667 Buy
20-DMA   1.0704 Buy
50-DMA   1.0677 Buy
100-DMA   1.0635 Buy
200-DMA   1.0835 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.968 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2803/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2863/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0623% at US$1.2874/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2900-1.3070 with targets at 1.2840-1.2775-1.2700 and 1.2630-1.2575, breakage above 1.3070 look for further upside with 1.3105 as targets. Buy above 1.2840-1.2630 with stop loss closing below 1.2550 targeting 1.2900-1.2950 and 1.3015-1.3070.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840
S2     1.2775
S3     1.2700-1.2630

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2950
R2     1.3015
R3     1.3070

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.368

Buy
20-DMA   1.2600 Buy
50-DMA   1.2460 Buy
100-DMA   1.2433 Buy
200-DMA   1.2610 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.643 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0112 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.77/USD and settled the day down by 0.0270% at JPY111.03/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-109.20 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 112.60-113.20 with stop below 109.20. Sell below 111.40-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 110.90-110.50 and 109.90-109.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.50
S2     109.90
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40
R2     112.00-112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   85.175 Buy
20-DMA   110.02 Sell
50-DMA   111.78 Sell
100-DMA   113.44 Sell
200-DMA   108.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.315 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.371 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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