AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. economy likely hit a soft patch in the first quarter as an unseasonably warm winter and rising inflation weighed on consumer spending, in a potential setback to President Donald Trump's promise to boost growth. Reduced business investment in inventories and government spending cuts also crimped gross domestic product growth. A Reuters survey of economists conducted last week forecast GDP rising at a 1.2 percent annual rate, but many economists lowered their estimates after the government on Thursday released advance reports on the goods trade deficit and inventories in March. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting the economy growing at only a 0.2 percent rate in the first quarter, which would be the weakest performance in three years. The economy grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter. The government will publish its advance first-quarter GDP estimate on Friday at 8:30 a.m. The expected sluggish first-quarter growth pace, however, is not a true picture of the economy's health. The labor market is near full employment and consumer confidence is near multi-year highs, suggesting that the mostly weather-induced slowdown in consumer spending is probably temporary. First-quarter GDP tends to underperform because of difficulties with the calculation of data that the government has acknowledged and is working to rectify. Trump is targeting infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation to achieve his goal of faster economic growth. Economists estimate that growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, braked to below a 1.0 percent rate in the first quarter. That would be the slowest pace in nearly four years and follows the fourth quarter's robust 3.5 percent growth rate.
  • Gold prices rebounded in Asia on Friday after President Donald Trump unleashed a stream of comments covering the viability of an existing free trade pact with South Korea to making Seoul pay for a sophisticated anti-missile system deployed now on its soil as well as the need for Saudi Arabia to pay more for U.s. military protection and the prospect of a war with North Korea. Trump’s tax reform plan would boost the dollar offset weaker than expected economic data. Gold prices struggled to hold onto gains, despite the release of weaker than expected economic data as both Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders fell short of expectations while a bullish pending Home Sales print capped upside momentum. The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday, its Pending Home Sales Index, declined 0.8 percent to 111.4. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 257,000 for the week ended April 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Meanwhile, new orders for U.S. durable goods rose 0.7 percent in March, which was far less than the 2.3% rise in February and well below expectations for a 1.2% increase.
  • The dollar was almost unchanged against other major currencies on Friday, as geopolitical tensions re-emerged and investors eyed the release of U.S. economic reports later in the day. Markets were jittery after U.S. President Donald Trump said he will either renegotiate or terminate a "horrible" trade deal with South Korea. The comments came shortly after Trump said that there is a chance the U.S. could have ‘a major conflict with North Korea.’ Market participants were also looking ahead to the release of reports on U.S. first-quarter growth and consumer sentiment, due later Friday. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said there isn’t enough evidence to change the ECB’s inflation outlook. The remarks came after the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.0%, in line with forecasts. Data earlier showed that Japan’s household spending declined 2.0% in March, compared to expectations for a 0.8% fall. Data also showed that Japan’s consumer price index rose by an annualized rate of 0.2% last month, below expectations for a 0.3% gain. Meanwhile, industrial production dropped 2.1% in March, according to preliminary data, compared to forecasts for a 0.8% slide.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday but were still on track for a second straight weekly loss on concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market. Traders said that Friday's rises came on the back of OPEC saying it was keen to find a deal that would ensure a drawdown of excess fuel supplies. OPEC and other producers including Russia originally pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 mn bpd only during the first half of the year. But OPEC has come under pressure to extend the cuts to cover all of 2017 in order to counter bulging supplies elsewhere. The ongoing supply overhang is in part due to surging U.S. production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has risen by 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.27 million bpd. Consultancy Rystad Energy expects U.S. shale oil output to grow by 100,000 bpd each month for the rest of this year and into 2018, well above estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for monthly gains of about 29,000 bpd in 2017 and 57,000 bpd in 2018. Outside the United States, rising output in Libya, an OPEC-member exempt from the cuts, was adding to plentiful supplies.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th April 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,280 1,289 1,300
Silver-XAG 17.70 18.05 18.95-19.20
Crude Oil 50.05 51.10-51.90 52.50
EURO/USD 1.0905 1.0955-1.1000 1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2915-1.2950 1.3015 1.3070
USD/JPY 111.40 112.00-112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th April 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,259-1,248 1,239 1,232
Silver-XAG 17.20-17.00 16.60 16.10
Crude Oil 49.00-48.30 47.60 47.00
EURO/USD 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750 1.0710
GBP/USD 1.2890-1.2840 1.2775 1.2700-1.2630
USD/JPY 110.90-110.50 109.90 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (28th April 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1269.49/oz and intraday low of US$1261.11/oz. Gold down by 0.341% at US$1264.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1314 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1248-1230. Buy above 1260-1232 with risk below 1232, targeting 1277-1289-1300 and 1307-1314.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,259-1,248
S2     1,239
S3     1,232
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,280
R2     1,289
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.582

Buy
20-DMA   1266.81 Buy
50-DMA  

1246.17

Buy
100-DMA   1216.03 Buy
200-DMA   1253.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.615 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   8.346 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down on Thursday from made its intraday high of US$17.47/oz after setting intraday low of US$17.22/oz. Silver settled by down by 1.374% at US$17.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.93), breakage above will lead to 18.05-18.50. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.20-16.10 targeting 17.70-18.05-18.45 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.70-19.20 with stop loss above 19.20; targeting 17.20-17.00 and 16.70-16.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.20-17.00
S2     16.60
S3     16.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.70
R2     18.05
R3     18.95-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.061 Buy
20-DMA   18.03 Sell
50-DMA   17.84 Sell
100-DMA   17.36 Sell
200-DMA   17.92 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.379 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.051 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$49.40/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.19/bbl and settled up by 0.040% at US$49.19/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 51.55 which is a major support and breakage above will call for 52.00-50.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.05-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting 49.00-48.30 and 47.60-47.00. Buy above 49.00-47.00 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 50.05-51.10-51.90 and 52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.00-48.30
S2     47.60
S3     47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.05
R2     51.10-51.90
R3     52.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.716 Sell
20-DMA   51.18 Buy
50-DMA   51.11 Buy
100-DMA   51.97 Buy
200-DMA   49.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.230 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.329 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0850/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0932/EUR and settled the day down by 0.284% at US$1.0871/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0651), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0905-1.1060 targeting 1.0840-1.0800 and 1.0750-1.0700-1.0635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1060. Buy above 1.0840-1.0800 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0750-1.0800 and 1.0840-1.0905-1.0930.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0840-1.0800
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0710

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0905
R2     1.0955-1.1000
R3     1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.203 Buy
20-DMA   1.0713 Buy
50-DMA   1.0681 Buy
100-DMA   1.0638 Buy
200-DMA   1.0834 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.968 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2838/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2916/GBP and settled the day up by 0.435% at US$1.2903/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2915-1.3070 with targets at 1.2840-1.2775-1.2700 and 1.2630-1.2575, breakage above 1.3070 look for further upside with 1.3105 as targets. Buy above 1.2890-1.2630 with stop loss closing below 1.2550 targeting 1.2900-1.2950 and 1.3015-1.3070.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2890-1.2840
S2     1.2775
S3     1.2700-1.2630

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2915-1.2950
R2     1.3015
R3     1.3070

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

69.748

Buy
20-DMA   1.2640 Buy
50-DMA   1.2479 Buy
100-DMA   1.2440 Buy
200-DMA   1.2608 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.643 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0112 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.59/USD and settled the day up by 0.180% at JPY111.23/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-109.20 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 112.60-113.20 with stop below 109.20. Sell below 111.40-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 110.90-110.50 and 109.90-109.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.50
S2     109.90
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40
R2     112.00-112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   85.175 Buy
20-DMA   110.02 Sell
50-DMA   111.78 Sell
100-DMA   113.44 Sell
200-DMA   108.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.315 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.371 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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