AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks shook off a sluggish start and edged up on Monday, with Japan outperforming on upbeat earnings, while the dollar regained traction as the U.S. government looked likely to avoid a shutdown. Asian shares initially took their cue from Wall Street, which dipped on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter. The mood brightened slightly, however, on news that U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, thus averting a government shutdown. Overall reaction was still limited as many markets in Asia and Europe are closed for Labour Day. While U.S. consumer spending has almost stalled, a surge in business investment and wage growth suggested activity would regain momentum as the year progresses, limiting Wall Street losses. Moreover, strong earnings have kept the U.S. equity market at or near record levels. Asian markets were little fazed by China's official manufacturing survey on Sunday which showed growth in the country's factories slowed more than expected in April to a six-month low. As trading resumed on Monday the safe-haven yen initially rose against the dollar in response to Saturday's missile test by North Korea. The greenback was up 0.1 percent at 111.620 yen JPY=, edging back towards a four-week peak of 111.780 scaled last week when Emmanuel Macron's victory against anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen in the first round of France's presidential elections reduced demand for the safe-haven currency. The runoff vote is on May 7. The euro was still in range of the 5-1/2-month high of $1.0951 struck early last week on relief over the first round of the French presidential elections.
  • The dollar edged higher against a basket of the other major currencies in quiet trade on Monday, with several markets in Asia and Europe closed for the May Day holiday. The dollar was boosted after U.S. Congressional leaders reached a deal late Sunday to fund the government, averting a government shutdown later this week. The deal, which includes a $12.5 billion increase for defense and $1.5 billion for border security, must now be passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate by Friday, in order to avoid the first government shutdown since 2013. The U.S. Department of Labor said Friday that the employment cost index, the broadest measure of labor costs, increased 0.8% in the first quarter, the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2007. The data offset another report showing that the U.S. economy posted its slowest growth in three years in the three months to March, with gross domestic product growing at a 0.7% annual rate. The slowdown was due in large part to a near-stagnation in consumer spending, which grew by just 0.3%. The yen’s losses were held in check as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments around North Korea, following another North Korean missile test-launch on Saturday which Washington and Seoul said was unsuccessful. The euro was a touch lower, with EUR/USD dipping 0.09% to 1.0886, but demand for the single currency continued to be underpinned by Friday’s stronger-than-forecast euro zone inflation data. The annual rate of inflation in the euro area rose by 1.9% in April, Eurostat said, the highest level in over three years. The data fueled expectations that the European Central Bank could adopt a more hawkish stance at its next policy meeting in June. The pound shrugged off data on Friday pointing to a showdown in UK growth at the start of the year as higher inflation, which has risen sharply since the Brexit vote, eroded consumer spending. Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned in the run-up to the election called by Prime Minister Theresa May, who says she wants to strengthen her hand ahead of Brexit negotiations.
  • Oil prices edged lower during European morning hours on Monday, starting the week off in negative territory as rising U.S. shale production continued to feed concerns about a global supply glut Trading activity was expected to remain light on Monday, with most markets in Europe, the U.K. and Asia closed for the May Day holiday. Crude has been under pressure in recent weeks amid fears that an ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 15th week in a row, data from energy Services Company Baker Hughes showed on Friday, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The U.S. rig count rose by 9 to 697, extending an 11-month drilling recovery to the highest level since August 2015. The relentless increase in U.S. output has overshadowed pledged output cuts by major producers. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January and June, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels. A final decision on whether or not to extend the deal beyond June will be taken by the oil cartel on May 25. Iran's oil minister said on Saturday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries had given positive signals for an extension of output cuts, which Tehran would also back. Natural gas futures for June delivery inched up 0.4 cents to $3.280 per million British thermal units.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,280 1,289 1,300
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.70 18.05 18.95-19.20
Crude Oil 50.05 51.10-51.90 52.50
EURO/USD 1.0905 1.0955-1.1000 1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2950-13015 1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.60 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,259-1,248 1,239 1,232
Silver-XAG 17.00-16.80 16.60 16.10
Crude Oil 49.00-48.30 47.60 47.00
EURO/USD 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750 1.0710
GBP/USD 1.2910-1.2890 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700
USD/JPY 111.40 110.90-110.50 109.90

Intra-Day Strategy (1st May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1268.43/oz and intraday low of US$1267.97/oz. Gold up by 0.189% at US$1267.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1314 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1248-1230. Buy above 1260-1232 with risk below 1232, targeting 1277-1289-1300 and 1307-1314.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,259-1,248
S2     1,239
S3     1,232
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,280
R2     1,289
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.889

Buy
20-DMA   1269.67 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.55

Buy
100-DMA   1217.88 Buy
200-DMA   1253.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.711 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   6.127 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down on Friday from made its intraday high of US$17.40/oz after setting intraday low of US$17.14/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.232% at US$17.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-16.10 targeting 17.36-17.70 and 18.05-18.45-18.90; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.40-19.20 with stop loss above 19.20; targeting 17.00-16.80 and 16.60-16.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00-16.80
S2     16.60
S3     16.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.70
R2     18.05
R3     18.95-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.516 Buy
20-DMA   17.96 Sell
50-DMA   17.82 Sell
100-DMA   17.36 Sell
200-DMA   17.91 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.084 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.156 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$49.73/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.79/bbl and settled down by 0.223% at US$49.12/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 51.55 which is a major support and breakage above will call for 52.00-50.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.05-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting 49.00-48.30 and 47.60-47.00. Buy above 49.00-47.00 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 50.05-51.10-51.90 and 52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.00-48.30
S2     47.60
S3     47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.05
R2     51.10-51.90
R3     52.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.289 Sell
20-DMA   51.03 Buy
50-DMA   50.92 Buy
100-DMA   51.94 Buy
200-DMA   49.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.230 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.462 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0856/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0947/EUR and settled the day up by 0.211% at US$1.0894/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0651), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0905-1.1060 targeting 1.0840-1.0800 and 1.0750-1.0700-1.0635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1060. Buy above 1.0840-1.0800 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0750-1.0800 and 1.0840-1.0905-1.0930.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0840-1.0800
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0710

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0905
R2     1.0955-1.1000
R3     1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.270 Buy
20-DMA   1.0726 Buy
50-DMA   1.0687 Buy
100-DMA   1.0640 Buy
200-DMA   1.0834 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.663 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2887/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2964/GBP and settled the day up by 0.372% at US$1.2905/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2950-1.3100 with targets at 1.2910-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2910-1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2775-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950-13015
R2     1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

69.739

Buy
20-DMA   1.2622 Buy
50-DMA   1.2469 Buy
100-DMA   1.2436 Buy
200-DMA   1.2609 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.643 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0118 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.71/USD and settled the day up by 0.260% at JPY111.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.40-109.9 with targets of 112.00-112.60 and 113.20-114.00 with stop below 109.20. Sell below 112.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.40-110.90 and 110.50-109.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40
S2     110.90-110.50
S3     109.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.60
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   88.139 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Sell
50-DMA   111.71 Sell
100-DMA   113.37 Sell
200-DMA   109.03 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.192 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.107 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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