AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday, as strong earnings and manufacturing data boosted risk appetite, while expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a June rate increase later in the session lifted the dollar. Hung Tran, executive managing director at the Institute of International Finance, said investors are currently struggling to price in outcomes amid a volatile political environment. Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for the Buddha's birthday, and Japan is shut from Wednesday until Friday for the Golden Week holiday. Markets are awaiting word from the Fed, which concludes its two-day meeting later on Wednesday. With the central bank largely expected to hold interest rates steady, the focus will be on language about future increases. Since the last meeting, economic data has been mixed, with the economy growing at a sluggish 0.7% annual pace in the first quarter as consumer spending almost stalled. A decline in U.S. new vehicle sales for April, following a disappointing March is also prompting worries that the industry, which has seen a nearly uninterrupted boom since 2010, may be on a downward swing. But a surge in business investment and the fastest wage growth in a decade suggest activity will regain momentum as the year progresses. The weak U.S. auto sales figures could make market participants wary of actively buying the dollar against the yen for now, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore. Eurozone unemployment remained at 9.5 percent in March, the lowest level since April 2009, while manufacturing growth for April was at or near six-year highs in France and Germany, and rose to a three-year peak in the UK. That followed data from Asian economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Japan that all showed faster manufacturing growth in April. While growth in China eased more than expected, the world's second-largest economy nevertheless avoided a sharp loss of momentum.
  • The dollar traded below a six-week high against the yen on Wednesday, as the market awaited the Federal Reserve's policy statement for hints on the U.S. interest rate outlook, while the kiwi strengthened after strong New Zealand jobs data. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, but investors will look to see whether the central bank downplays the recent soft patch in the economy to leave the door open for a rate increase in June. The greenback had pulled away from its six-week high after weak U.S. April auto sales data released on Tuesday added to recent worries about the outlook for the U.S. economy, which hit a soft patch in the first quarter. Market participants may be wary of actively buying the dollar against the yen for now, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore. The euro saw a relief rally last week, after Emmanuel Macron's victory against anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen in the first round of France's presidential elections. The runoff vote is on May 7. Macron and Le Pen will square off in a televised debate on Wednesday, ahead of Sunday's runoff vote. Opinion polls still show Macron, a centrist candidate, holding a strong lead of 20 points over Le Pen with just four days to go to the final vote, in what is widely seen as France's most important election in decades. The kiwi's gains also came in the wake of a rise in global dairy prices at an international auction. The auction results can affect the New Zealand dollar as the dairy sector generates more than 7 percent of the country's gross domestic product.
  • Crude prices gained in Asia on Wednesday in a rebound from a sharp drop of more than 2% overnight after a surprise draw in industry estimates of U.S. inventories, but the market remained cautious ahead of official figures. U.S. crude inventories fell a more than expected 4.16 million barrels at the end of last week, the API said Tuesday, with gasoline supplies showing a surprise draw of 1.93 million barrels and distillates fell 440K barrels. The industry figures are followed Wednesday by official data from the EIA. The two sets of figures often diverge and have in the past two weeks whipsawed the market. Analysts, in upward revised estimates, expect crude oil inventories dropped 2.333 million barrels at the end of last week, while distillates rose by 723,000 barrels and gasoline supplies increased by 1.322 million barrels. Overnight, crude futures settled more than 2% lower on Tuesday, as investors weighed the impact of an OPEC-led deal to drain the glut in supply against the uptick in global output. Oil prices slid 2%, adding to the 1% loss sustained in the previous session, as investors fretted about the sharp rise in U.S. production, despite expectations that U.S. crude stockpiles are set to fall for a fourth straight week. Russian oil production fell to 11 million bpd last month, close to its output target under the deal with OPEC, Energy Ministry data showed on Tuesday. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The deal to cut supply came into effect in January this year for a period of six-months until June. Meanwhile, Libya added to the glut in supply, after the country resumed output and production rose above 760,000 bpd to the highest rate since 2014, Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of the National Oil Corp. said on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,259 1,270-1,280 1,289
Silver-XAG 17.00-17.30 17.70 18.05-18.95
Crude Oil 48.30-49.00 50.05 51.10-51.90
EURO/USD 1.0955-1.1000 1.1055 1.1110
GBP/USD 1.2950-13015 1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 112.60-113.20 114.00 114.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,248-1,239 1,232 1,221
Silver-XAG 16.80-16.60 16.30 15.90
Crude Oil 47.60-47.00 46.50 45.30
EURO/USD 1.0890 1.0840-1.0800 1.0955-1.1000
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700
USD/JPY 112.00 111.40 110.90-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1269.49/oz and intraday low of US$1261.11/oz. Gold down by 0.052% at US$1264.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1260-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1254-1248 and 1240-1230. Buy above 1250-1232 with risk below 1232, targeting 1260-1277 and 1289-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,248-1,239
S2     1,232
S3     1,221
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,259
R2     1,270-1,280
R3     1,289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.097

Buy
20-DMA   1269.49 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.80

Buy
100-DMA   1218.67 Buy
200-DMA   1252.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.711 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   4.205 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Tuesday from made its intraday high of US$16.98/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.77/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.237% at US$16.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-16.10 targeting 17.36-17.70 and 18.05-18.45-18.90; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.40-19.20 with stop loss above 19.20; targeting 17.00-16.80 and 16.60-16.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.80-16.60
S2     16.30
S3     15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00-17.30
R2     17.70
R3     18.05-18.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.994 Buy
20-DMA   17.88 Sell
50-DMA   17.79 Sell
100-DMA   17.35 Sell
200-DMA   17.89 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.084 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.219 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$49.26/bbl and made an intraday low of US$47.34/bbl and settled down by 1.537% at US$48.02/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 51.55 which is a major support and breakage above will call for 52.00-50.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.00-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 48.30-47.60 and 47.00-46.50. Buy above 48.30-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 49.00-50.05-51.10 and 51.90-52.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     47.60-47.00
S2     46.50
S3     45.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.30-49.00
R2     50.05
R3     51.10-51.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.830 Sell
20-DMA   50.73 Sell
50-DMA   50.67 Sell
100-DMA   51.87 Sell
200-DMA   49.22 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.230 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0887/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0932/EUR and settled the day up by 0.293% at US$1.0929/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0890
S2     1.0840-1.0800
S3     1.0955-1.1000

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0955-1.1000
R2     1.1055
R3     1.1110

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.123 Buy
20-DMA   1.0752 Buy
50-DMA   1.0702 Buy
100-DMA   1.0647 Buy
200-DMA   1.0833 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.663 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0062 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2863/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2938/GBP and settled the day up by 0.426% at US$1.2937/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2950-1.3100 with targets at 1.2910-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2775-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950-13015
R2     1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.736

Buy
20-DMA   1.2709 Buy
50-DMA   1.2507 Buy
100-DMA   1.2449 Buy
200-DMA   1.2609 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.643 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0125 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.30/USD and settled the day up by 0.143% at JPY111.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-109.9 with targets of 112.60-113.20 and 114.00-114.60 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 112.60-114.60 with risk above 114.60 targeting 112.00-111.40-110.90 and 110.50-109.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00
S2     111.40
S3     110.90-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.60-113.20
R2     114.00
R3     114.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   88.139 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   111.71 Buy
100-DMA   113.37 Sell
200-DMA   109.03 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.192 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.107 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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