AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks retreated on Thursday, taking their cues from a subdued session on Wall Street, while the dollar retained gains made after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy statement. At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate steady, as expected, but downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth and emphasized the strength of the labor market, a sign it was still on track for two more rate increases this year. Attention now turns to U.S. non-farm payrolls for March, due on Friday, after separate data showed private employers added 177K jobs in April. That was higher than expected but the smallest increase since October. Economists polled by Reuters expect U.S. private payroll employment likely grew by 185K jobs in April, up from 89,000 in March. Japan is closed for the Golden Week holiday. Rising exports point to continued profit growth in the second quarter, with sentiment supported by hopes for economic stimulus from a new president. Political concerns, which have taken a backseat recently, may re-emerge, with a U.S. House of Representatives vote on a revised bill to repeal Obamacare due later in the session after two failed attempts to corral enough support to pass the legislation. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Republican leadership is confident there is enough backing for the bill to pass, after key moderate leaders met with President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Even if the bill passes the House, it could face an uphill battle in the Senate. Following a debate between French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron, who will face off in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, a poll showed some 63 percent of voters found market favorite Macron to be more convincing In commodities, oil prices slipped on Thursday after a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories last week.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market, in a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year. In a bullish statement following the end of a two-day policy meeting, the central bank also said consumer spending continued to be solid, business investment had firmed and inflation has been "running close" to the Fed's target. The labor market continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed and "the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid," policymakers added. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at its last meeting in March to a target range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent. Before this week's meeting most Fed policymakers had made it clear that in contrast to previous years the central bank feels more confident in its forecast of two more rate increases in 2017. The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington September 16 2015. The Federal Reserve, facing this week its biggest policy decision yet under Chair Janet Yellen, puts its credibility on the line regardless of whether it waits or raises interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Wednesday's affirmation from the Fed that it was optimistic on economic growth and that its rate rise plans remained intact bolstered the dollar against the euro and yen and pushed Treasury yields slightly higher. Policymakers have been buoyed by recent economic data that showed a surge in business investment and the fastest wage growth in a decade. The unemployment rate also fell in March to near a 10-year low. The rate-setting committee is also gearing up to announce sometime this year when and how the Fed will begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Wednesday's statement offered no new details. Fed officials will hold their next policy meeting on June 13-14.
  • Crude oil lost ground on Thursday, falling for a third out of four sessions and trading near its lowest since late March after data showed a lower than expected decline in U.S. inventories. U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected last week, while gasoline inventories grew as demand remained weak, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, keeping concerns about global supply on a simmer. Crude inventories fell by 930,000 barrels in the week to April 28, much less than analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks have steadily declined for the last four weeks, but at 527.8 million barrels they are still 3 percent higher from this time a year ago. While the market takes direction from U.S. inventories and rising production, investors are also monitoring whether producing countries have been complying with their 2016 deal to cut output around 1.8 million bpd by the middle of the year market is expecting OPEC and other producers to extend production cuts well into the second half of the year. Russia, contributing the largest production cut outside OPEC, said as of May 1, it had cut output by more than 300K bpd since hitting peak production in October. However the latest Reuters survey of OPEC production showed the country's compliance had fallen slightly. OPEC meets on May 25 to discuss extending the agreement. Iraqi fuel oil exports have soared since January despite a reduction in the country's crude production in line with OPEC supply cuts, industry sources said, in what could be a way to boost output of refined products and maintain oil revenues. Iraq on average exported between 80,000 and 160,000 tonnes of fuel oil per month in 2016, data collected by Thomson Reuters Oil Research showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,239 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.80 17.00 17.30-17.70
Crude Oil 47.60 48.30-49.00 50.05
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.0955-1.1000 1.1055
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2950-13015 1.3070
USD/JPY 112.60-113.20 114.00 114.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221 1,221 1,207
Silver-XAG 16.30-16.10 15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 47.00 46.50-46.00 45.30
EURO/USD 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750 1.0900
GBP/USD 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700 1.2890
USD/JPY 112.00 111.40 110.90-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (4th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1256.81/oz and intraday low of US$1235.77/oz. Gold down by 0.052% at US$137.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1239-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1232-1226 and 1221-1207. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221
S2     1,221
S3     1,207
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,239
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.316

Buy
20-DMA   1267.66 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.83

Buy
100-DMA   1220.20 Buy
200-DMA   1251.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.711 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.546 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Wednesday from made its intraday high of US$16.61/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.42/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.182% at US$16.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.30-16.10
S2     15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.80
R2     17.00
R3     17.30-17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   21.079 Buy
20-DMA   17.69 Sell
50-DMA   17.73 Sell
100-DMA   17.73 Sell
200-DMA   17.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.084 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.340 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$48.21/bbl and made an intraday low of US$47.27/bbl and settled down by 1.184% at US$47.54/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 51.55 which is a major support and breakage above will call for 52.00-50.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 47.60-50.05 with stop loss at 50.05; targeting 47.00-46.50 and 46.00-45.30. Buy above 47.00-45.30 with risk daily closing below 45.00 and targeting 48.30-49.00 and 50.05-51.10-51.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     47.00
S2     46.50-46.00
S3     45.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.60
R2     48.30-49.00
R3     50.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.604 Sell
20-DMA   50.56 Sell
50-DMA   50.53 Sell
100-DMA   51.81 Sell
200-DMA   49.25 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0882/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0936/EUR and settled the day down by 0.293% at US$1.0884/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1110 targeting 1.0890-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0890-1.0750 with risk below 1.0750 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0840-1.0800
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900
R2     1.0955-1.1000
R3     1.1055

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.926 Buy
20-DMA   1.0762 Buy
50-DMA   1.0652 Buy
100-DMA   1.0652 Buy
200-DMA   1.0832 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.663 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2864/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2946/GBP and settled the day up by 0.556% at US$1.2865/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2890-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840
S2     1.2775-1.2700
S3     1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2890
R2     1.2950-13015
R3     1.3070

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.062

Buy
20-DMA   1.2725 Buy
50-DMA   1.2512 Buy
100-DMA   1.2452 Buy
200-DMA   1.2602 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.643 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0114 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.76/USD and settled the day up by 0.669% at JPY112.72/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-109.9 with targets of 112.60-113.20 and 114.00-114.60 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 112.60-114.60 with risk above 114.60 targeting 112.00-111.40-110.90 and 110.50-109.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00
S2     111.40
S3     110.90-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.60-113.20
R2     114.00
R3     114.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   88.139 Buy
20-DMA   110.07 Buy
50-DMA   111.71 Buy
100-DMA   113.37 Sell
200-DMA   109.03 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.192 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.107 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING