AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks declined for a third consecutive day on Friday as fresh falls in commodities raised concerns about the health of the global economy, though the euro bucked the broad weakness on receding concerns about France's presidential election. Chinese stocks led regional losers, falling to a three-month low as concerns about tighter financial regulations weighed on banking shares while oil plays such as Petrochina and Sinopec tumbled on oil's retreat below the $45 per barrel mark. In the latest attempts by Beijing to reduce leverage in the nation's banking system, regulators are turning their attention to capital rotation, breaches of arbitrage rules and illegal transactions, the official Shanghai Securities News reported on Friday, citing bank sources. While regulatory enforcement sprees are not new to China, investors fear there may be no let up in a new wave of tightening soon after President Xi Jinping last week made a rare speech on financial stability. Xi called for increased efforts to ward off systemic risks to help maintain financial security, the official Xinhua news agency said. The weakness in commodities washed over to stocks, countering some fairly solid earnings reports and some cautious optimism about U.S. President Donald Trump's reform plans after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a healthcare overhaul. Traders also remained cautious ahead of Friday's U.S. government payrolls report, following March's underwhelming 98K figure. Economists on average expect 185K jobs were created in April.
  • Gold gained on Friday in Asia in cautious trade ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data expected to point the way for a Fed rate hike in June with 185,000 jobs expected, compared to a disappointing 98,000 in March. Overnight, gold prices sank to a six-week low on Thursday, as investors’ optimism for a June rate hike rose to its highest level, after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged but downplayed slower first-quarter economic growth. Gold prices slumped to a six-week low, after uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the French presidential election eased, following a strong performance by pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron in a TV presidential debate against Marine Le Pen ahead of the final vote on Sunday. Meanwhile, investors’ expectations of a June rate hike hit its highest level, after the Federal Reserve released a somewhat hawkish statement on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank left its key benchmark rate unchanged but downplayed the significance of slower first quarter economic activity. The dollar held steady against other major currencies on Friday, as investors awaited the release of key U.S. employment data due later in the day and markets geared up for the second round of the French presidential election. Meanwhile, sentiment on the greenback remained fragile following a mixed bag of U.S. economic data on Thursday, as initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week while factory orders eased in March. Market participants were now looking ahead to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday, fir further indications on the strength of the job market. Elsewhere, mixed U.S. economic data failed to stem the slide in gold prices, after initial jobless claims fell more than expected while factory orders eased in March. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 238,000 in the week ended April 29, well below economists’ estimates. The Commerce Department said factory orders edged up 0.2% in March, a significant slowdown from February's gain of 1.2%, and below forecasts of 0.4% rise.
  • Crude prices reversed course and fell sharply in Asia on Friday with weekly rig count data expected to set the tone along with nonfarm payrolls as an indicator of broad economic health in the key U.S. market. Reports on Thursday said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers look likely to extend their agreement to limit supplies beyond its June expiry to help clear a glut, but downplayed the chances of additional steps such as a bigger cut in the face of a massive supply response from the U.S. to higher prices. That increased production will get a fresh weekly view later on Friday with the latest weekly rig count report. Last week, U.S. drillers added rigs for the 15th week in a row, data from energy Services Company Baker Hughes showed last Friday, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The U.S. rig count rose by 9 to 697, extending an 11-month drilling recovery to the highest level since August 2015. Crude prices plunged to a session low of $45.31, just shy of the November 30. low of $45.22, the day OPEC and other producers including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 mn bpd for a period of six-month months until June. Despite, data from the IEA, showing that 99% of the targeted cut has been implemented during the first quarter of 2017, oversupply jitters returned as producers, who are not part of the deal to curb supply, the U.S. in particular, ramped up output, which has dampened OPEC’s effort to reduce global supply. Saudi oil chief Khalid al-Falih acknowledged last week, that the first quarter of cuts failed to stem the glut in supply to below the five-year average but hinted at the possibility of extending the supply-cut agreement beyond June. OPEC is expected to decide at talks on May 25 whether to extend production the current deal to cut production for additional six-months to the end of the year. The slide came a day after the EIA revealed that U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected. For the week ended April 26, the EIA said that crude oil inventories fell by 0.930 million, which was far less than expectations of a draw of 2.333 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,239 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.80 17.00 17.30-17.70
Crude Oil 45.30 46.00-46.50 47.00
EURO/USD 1.1000-1.1054 1.1120 1.1160
GBP/USD 1.2950-13015 1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 112.60-113.20 114.00 114.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,232-1,226 1,221 1,207
Silver-XAG 16.30-16.10 15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 44.00-43.60 42.90 42.00
EURO/USD 1.0955-1.0900 1.0840 1.0750
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700
USD/JPY 112.00 111.40 110.90-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (5th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1241.10/oz and intraday low of US$1225.61/oz. Gold down by 0.769% at US$1227.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1239-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1232-1226 and 1221-1207. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,232-1,226
S2     1,221
S3     1,207
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,239
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.316

Buy
20-DMA   1267.66 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.83

Buy
100-DMA   1220.20 Buy
200-DMA   1251.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.711 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.546 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Thursday from made its intraday high of US$16.61/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.20/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.791% at US$16.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.30-16.10
S2     15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.80
R2     17.00
R3     17.30-17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   24.385 Buy
20-DMA   17.60 Sell
50-DMA   17.69 Sell
100-DMA   17.34 Sell
200-DMA   17.84 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.743 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.340 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$47.73/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.26/bbl and settled down by 4.456% at US$45.45/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.30-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 44.00-43.60 and 42.90-42.00. Buy above 44.00-42.00 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 45.30-46.00 and 46.50-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.00-43.60
S2     42.90
S3     42.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.30
R2     46.00-46.50
R3     47.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   19.602 Sell
20-DMA   50.09 Sell
50-DMA   50.29 Sell
100-DMA   51.70 Sell
200-DMA   49.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.260 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0874/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0986/EUR and settled the day up by 0.900% at US$1.0983/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1110 targeting 1.0890-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0890-1.0750 with risk below 1.0750 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0955-1.0900
S2     1.0840
S3     1.0750

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1000-1.1054
R2     1.1120
R3     1.1160

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.683 Buy
20-DMA   1.0787 Buy
50-DMA   1.0718 Buy
100-DMA   1.0658 Buy
200-DMA   1.0831 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.663 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0073 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2931/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2931/GBP and settled the day up by 0.427% at US$1.2920/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2890-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2775-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950-13015
R2     1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.918

Buy
20-DMA   1.2757 Buy
50-DMA   1.2523 Buy
100-DMA   1.2458 Buy
200-DMA   1.2601 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.207 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY112.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.04/USD and settled the day down by 0.239% at JPY112.45/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-109.90 with targets of 112.60-113.20 and 114.00-114.60 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 112.60-114.60 with risk above 114.60 targeting 112.00-111.40-110.90 and 110.50-109.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00
S2     111.40
S3     110.90-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.60-113.20
R2     114.00
R3     114.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.454 Buy
20-DMA   110.37 Buy
50-DMA   111.68 Buy
100-DMA   113.18 Sell
200-DMA   109.19 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   74.192 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.107 Sell

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