AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The euro hit a six-month high against the dollar on Monday while Asian shares gained and U.S. stock futures briefly touched a record high, on investor relief after centrist Emmanuel Macron comfortably won the French presidential election. Macron's emphatic victory brought comfort to investors and European allies alike, who had been nervous about the risk of another populist upheaval, following Britain's vote to quit the EU and Donald Trump's election as U.S. president - neither of which had been predicted by pollsters or bookmakers. The common currency gave up gains later, with some market participants citing uncertainties on whether Macron's, rebranded La Republique En Marche, can get a parliamentary majority in elections in June, as a factor. Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives won a decisive victory in a vote in Germany's northern state of Schleswig-Holstein on Sunday, boosting her prospects of winning a national election in September. Stock markets had a welcome surprise on Friday from solid U.S. employment numbers. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 211,000 last month after a paltry gain of 79,000 in March, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 percent, near a 10-year low and well below the most recent Federal Reserve median forecast for full employment. The hiring rebound supports the U.S. central bank's contention that the pedestrian 0.7 percent annualized economic growth in the first quarter was likely "transitory," and its optimism that economic activity would expand at a "moderate" pace. China's import growth slowed faster than expected in April, as inbound shipments of commodities such as iron ore and copper weakened, while export growth more than halved, in line with a general cooling in demand for electronic gadgets. China's April imports rose 11.9 percent, cooling from March's 20.3 percent rise, official data showed on Monday, and missing analysts' expectations for an 18 percent rise. Exports rose 8.0 percent from a year earlier, slowing from a 16.4 percent rise in the previous month and short of expectations of 10.4 percent. While the data shows trade remained robust at the beginning of the second quarter, analysts say the spurt in China's economic growth seen in the first three months of the year may be as good as it gets as policymakers seek to tighten speculative investment, especially in the property sector.
  • Gold held gains in in Asia on Monday after centrist Emmanuel Macron matched opinion poll expectations and beat anti-EU far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and despite weak China trade data. Overall, China said exports rose 8.0% in April year-on-year, below the 10.4% gain seen, while imports rose 11.9% also below the 18.0% gain expected for a trade balance surplus of $38.05 billion, wider than the $35.50 billion seen. Investors will also be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. data on inflation and retail sales to gauge if the economy is on a strong enough footing for another rate hike as soon as next month. Last week, gold prices retraced gains on Friday after data showing a strong rebound in U.S. jobs growth last month underlined expectations for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The precious metal ended the week down 3.26%, the largest week decline since early November. The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs last month, beating expectations for a gain of 185,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%, a near a 10-year low. The report also showed that the prior month’s figure of 98,000 was revised down to an even lower 79,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in April. However, downward revisions to previous months lowered the year-on-year increase to 2.5%, the smallest gain since August 2016, from 2.6% in March. The jobs data did little to alter the view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as Saudi Arabia's energy minister said an OPEC-led production cut scheduled to end in June would likely be extended to cover all of 2017, although a relentless increase in U.S. drilling capped gains. Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Monday oil markets were rebalancing after years of oversupply, but that he still expected the OPEC-led deal to cut output during the first half of the year to be extended. The OPEC, of which Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader, as well as other producers including Russia, pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year to prop up the market. The comments from Al-Falih and rising prices came after steep falls last week due to ample supply in countries that aren't participating in the cuts, including the United States where output is soaring. A decision on whether to continue the production cuts is expected at OPEC's next official meeting on May 25. Traders said the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election against far-right Marine Le Pen also supported oil prices as it raised hopes of a more stable European economy. U.S. drilling for new oil continued to pick up last week, with the rig count climbing by 6 to 703.Since a low point on May 27, 2016, U.S. producers have added 387 oil rigs, or about 123 percent, Goldman Sachs said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,239 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.80 17.00 17.30
Crude Oil 45.30 46.00-46.50 47.00
EURO/USD 1.1000-1.1054 1.1120 1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100 1.3190
USD/JPY 113.20-114.00 114.60 115.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,226-1,221 1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 16.30-16.10 15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 44.00-43.60 42.90 42.00
EURO/USD 1.0955-1.0900 1.0840 1.0750
GBP/USD 1.2950-1.2890 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700
USD/JPY 112.60-112.00 111.40 110.90-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (8th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Friday and made its intraday high of 1235.44/oz and intraday low of US$1225.95/oz. Gold down by 0.026% at US$1227.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1239-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1232-1226 and 1221-1207. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,226-1,221
S2     1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,239
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.063

Buy
20-DMA   1264.85 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.69

Buy
100-DMA   1221.69 Buy
200-DMA   1250.88 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.711 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.546 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Friday from made its intraday high of US$16.61/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.21/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.122% at US$16.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.30-16.10
S2     15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.80
R2     17.00
R3     17.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   21.204 Buy
20-DMA   17.79 Sell
50-DMA   17.76 Sell
100-DMA   17.35 Sell
200-DMA   17.88 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.562 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.292 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$46.64/bbl and made an intraday low of US$43.73/bbl and settled up by 2.24% at US$46.48/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.30-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 44.00-43.60 and 42.90-42.00. Buy above 44.00-42.00 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 45.30-46.00 and 46.50-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.00-43.60
S2     42.90
S3     42.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.30
R2     46.00-46.50
R3     47.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   19.602 Sell
20-DMA   50.09 Sell
50-DMA   50.29 Sell
100-DMA   51.70 Sell
200-DMA   49.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.260 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0947/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0990/EUR and settled the day up by 0.127% at US$1.0997/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1110 targeting 1.0890-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0890-1.0750 with risk below 1.0750 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0955-1.0900
S2     1.0840
S3     1.0750

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1000-1.1054
R2     1.1120
R3     1.1160

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.860 Buy
20-DMA   1.0807 Buy
50-DMA   1.0727 Buy
100-DMA   1.0664 Buy
200-DMA   1.0830 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.663 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0077 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2899/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2983/GBP and settled the day up by 0.464% at US$1.2980/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2890-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950-1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2775-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3015-1.3070
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3190

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.592

Buy
20-DMA   1.2788 Buy
50-DMA   1.2534 Buy
100-DMA   1.2464 Buy
200-DMA   1.2600 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.720 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.07/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.79/USD and settled the day up by 0.231% at JPY112.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.60-110.50 with targets of 113.20-114.00-and 114.60-115.30 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 113.00-115.30 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.60-112.00-111.40 and 110.90- 110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.60-112.00
S2     111.40
S3     110.90-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.20-114.00
R2     114.60
R3     115.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.78 Buy
20-DMA   110.49 Buy
50-DMA   111.69 Buy
100-DMA   113.14 Sell
200-DMA   109.25 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   75.192 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.421 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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