AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stock markets edged down on Tuesday following a flat close on Wall Street, as investors searched for the next catalyst following France's presidential election, while oil inched higher on expectations OPEC supply cuts will be extended. Liberal Moon Jae-in is widely expected to win the presidency, following months of leadership vacuum after former President Park Geun-hye was removed on charges of bribery and abuse of power. The polls opened at 6 a.m. and will close at 8 p.m.. The winner is expected to be sworn in on Wednesday after the Election Commission releases the official result. Allies and neighbors are closely watching the election amid escalating tensions over North Korea's accelerating development of weapons since it conducted its fourth nuclear test in January last year. It conducted a fifth test in September and is believed ready for another. German industrial production fell by less than expected in March and trade proved resilient, data showed on Tuesday, supporting expectations for a robust performance of Europe's biggest economy in the first quarter. Industrial output edged down by 0.4 percent on the month, data from the Economy Ministry showed. This was better than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a drop of 0.6 percent. The decline was driven by a 2.5 percent fall in energy output. Manufacturing production was down 0.5 percent while construction output rose 1.5 percent. The February reading was revised down to a rise of 1.8 percent from a previously reported increase of 2.2 percent. In January, industrial production rose by 1.3 percent. In the first quarter as a whole, industrial production rose 1.4 percent on the quarter, the ministry said. Separate data released from the Federal Statistics Office showed that seasonally adjusted exports rose by 0.4 percent on the month. This came in better than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 0.2 percent.
  • Gold prices inched down in European trade on Tuesday, holding near the prior session's seven-week low amid fading demand for safe-haven assets. The yellow metal hit its lowest since on Monday as safe-haven demand ebbed after market-friendly centrist Emmanuel Macron beat far-rightist Marine Le Pen to clinch the French presidency. The victory for Macron signaled that political risks in France and across Europe are receding, in the wake of the populist surge which resulted in Brexit and propelled Donald Trump to the White House, dampening demand for the yellow metal, which is often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty.
  • Crude prices in Asia held onto gains on Tuesday late into the session, but sentiment remained cautious ahead of weekly industry estimates of U.S. oil and refined product stockpiles. The API reports its estimats of crude and refined product stocks at the end of last week after the market close on Tuesday. The figures are followed on Wednesday by official data from the U.S. EIA. Analysts expected crude supplies fell by 1.8 million barrels, with gaoline stocks expected to drop by 875,000 barrels and distillate inventories down by 950,000 barrels. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Monday, after Russia and Saudi Arabia supported the idea of extending the supply-cut agreement into 2018 to drain the glut in supply. Oil prices bounced off lows, as oil ministers from both Russia and Saudi Arabia said they would consider extending production cuts into 2018. Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, that a production cut extension for a longer period will help “speed up” market rebalancing. Novak’s comments on a possible deal extension for longer than the widely anticipated six-month period were echoed by Saudi oil chief Khalid Al-Falih, who said that he was “confident the agreement will be extended into the second half of year and possibly beyond." OPEC is expected to decide at talks on May 25 whether to extend the current deal to cut production for an additional six-months to the end of the year. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million bpd. The positive start to the week for oil futures, came on the heels of a 6% loss sustained in the previous week, after concerns over rising U.S. oil output cast a doubt on OPEC’s efforts to rein in supply in the industry. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported Friday, its weekly U.S. rig count rose by 6 to 703. It was the sixteenth straight weekly increase amid expectations that U.S. shale output was set for its biggest increase this month.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,240 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.30 16.60-16.80 17.00
Crude Oil 46.50-47.15 48.40 49.20
EURO/USD 1.0955 1.1000-1.1054 1.1120
GBP/USD 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100 1.3190
USD/JPY 114.00-114.60 115.30 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,207 1,200 1,190
Silver-XAG 16.10-15.65 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 46.00-45.30 44.00 43.60-42.90
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0840 1.0750 1.0705
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2840 1.2775-1.2700
USD/JPY 113.20-112.60 112.00 111.40-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (9th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Monday and made its intraday high of 1236.40/oz and intraday low of US$1220.77/oz. Gold up by 0.038% at US$1225.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1234-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1221-1207 and 1200-1190. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,190
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,234-1,240
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.260

Buy
20-DMA   1263.13 Sell
50-DMA  

1247.05

Sell
100-DMA   1222.61 Buy
200-DMA   1250.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.2115 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   16.10-15.65 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Monday from made its intraday high of US$16.42/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.20/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.184% at US$16.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.10-15.65
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.30
R2     16.60-16.80
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   18.601 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.60 Sell
100-DMA   17.33 Sell
200-DMA   17.80 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   3.817 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.458 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$46.96/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.71/bbl and settled up by 0.259% at US$46.44/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.50-49.20 with stop loss at 49.20; targeting 46.00-45.30 and 44.00-43.60-42.90. Buy above 46.00-42.90 with risk daily closing below 42.90 and targeting 46.50-47.15 and 48.40-49.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.00-45.30
S2     44.00
S3     43.60-42.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.50-47.15
R2     48.40
R3     49.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.834 Sell
20-DMA   49.56 Sell
50-DMA   50.03 Sell
100-DMA   51.61 Sell
200-DMA   49.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.612 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.219 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0915/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1021/EUR and settled the day down by 0.880% at US$1.0922/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1110 targeting 1.0890-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0890-1.0750 with risk below 1.0750 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0840
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0955
R2     1.1000-1.1054
R3     1.1120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.109 Buy
20-DMA   1.0819 Buy
50-DMA   1.0732 Buy
100-DMA   1.0669 Buy
200-DMA   1.0829 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.523 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0077 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2928/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2988/GBP and settled the day down by 0.331% at US$1.2936/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3015-1.3190 with targets at 1.2900-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2775-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3015-1.3070
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3190

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.363

Buy
20-DMA   1.2808 Buy
50-DMA   1.2545 Buy
100-DMA   1.2469 Buy
200-DMA   1.2598 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.720 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY112.38/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.28/USD and settled the day up by 0.274% at JPY113.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.60-110.50 with targets of 113.20-114.00-and 114.60-115.30 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.20-112.60-112.00 and 111.40- 110.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20-112.60
S2     112.00
S3     111.40-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00-114.60
R2     115.30
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.882 Buy
20-DMA   110.71 Buy
50-DMA   111.71 Buy
100-DMA   113.10 Sell
200-DMA   109.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   92.192 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.572 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING