AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks edged higher for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as investors focused on strong corporate earnings and the dollar gave back some of its recent gains. U.S. President Donald Trump's abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey prompted some unwinding of risky bets in early Asian trading but strategists said investors were cheered by a strong slate of corporate earnings, reflecting the cyclical rebound in the first quarter of 2017 was still in place. Markets were also relieved when U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross signaled the Trump administration would attempt to use existing tools to aggressively enforce trade rules and insist on fairer treatment for U.S. goods, rather than adopt the slash-and-burn approach Trump promoted on the campaign trail in 2016.
  • Dollar traded higher against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, buoyed by an uptick in expectations that the Federal Reserve is poised to increase its benchmark rate in June. The dollar is on track for a two-day win streak as investors’ expectations for a June rate hike soared to the highest level on Tuesday amid slew of comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors mulled over hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Esther George on Tuesday. George said that the U.S. central bank should keep gradually raising short-term interest rates despite the recent slowdown in GDP and car sales. U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb on rate hike expectations; the U.S. 10-Year hit a five-week high of 2.409, up 1.37%. Investors considered the impact of newly elected French president Emmanuel Macron’s plans to introduce a “Buy European Act”, which would block companies from outside the European trading bloc from bidding for public contracts within the European Union.
  • Gold prices were higher in European trade on Wednesday, bouncing off the prior session's eight-week low after U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly fired FBI Director James Comey in a move that shocked Washington. Rekindled fears that North Korea could be gearing up for another weapons test also supported gold. Trump fired Comey on the advice of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Attorney General Jeff Sessions, over his handling of an election-year email scandal involving then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Democrats immediately accused Trump of having political motives, as Comey had been leading his agency's investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and possible collusion with Trump's campaign. Market analysts warned that Comey's firing could create a sideshow that may delay the Trump Administration's plans on tax reform and infrastructure spending, weighing on the dollar. China's April producer price inflation cooled more than expected in a sign manufacturing activity may be losing momentum along with other sectors of the economy as domestic demand remains muted and the government cracks down on financial risks. China PPI gained 6.4% in April compared to the 6.9% forecast, while consumer prices increased 1.2% on year.
  • Crude prices held gain on Wednesday as industry estimates showed a much sharper draw in U.S. crude inventories expected, though higher than seen gasoline stocks dimmed sentiment. Crude inventories in the U.S. fell a more than expected 5.79 million barrels, the API reported in estimates released on Tuesday for the week ended May 5. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.17 million barrels, compared to a draw expected, and distillate stocks fell by 1.17 million barrels, more than forecast. Supplies at the oil storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 130,000 barrels. The API figures are followed on Wednesday by official data from the U.S. EIA at 10:30 a.m. EDT. The two sets of data often diverge. Analysts expected crude supplies fell by 1.786 mn barrels, with gasoline stocks down by 538,000 barrels and distillate inventories down by 1.013 mn barrels. Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Tuesday, as concerns over rising U.S. oil output returned, after the EIA raised its near-term outlook for U.S. oil production and revised down its projections for oil prices. Oil prices pared gains in mid-afternoon trade, as sentiment turned bearish, after the EIA raised its U.S. oil production forecast to an average of 9.3 million barrels per a day bpd in 2017 and 10 million bpd in 2018. The EIA revised down its projection for average oil prices in 2017 to $52.60 a barrel for Brent and $50.68 for WTI. Crude futures bounced back from a 6% loss sustained in the previous week on Monday, after oil ministers from both Russia and Saudi Arabia said they would consider extending production cuts into 2018. Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, that a production cut extension for a longer period will help “speed up” market rebalancing while Saudi oil chief Khalid Al-Falih said that he was “confident the agreement will be extended into the second half of year and possibly beyond." OPEC is expected to decide at talks on May 25 whether to extend the current deal to cut production for an additional six-months to the end of the year In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,240 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.30 16.60-16.80 17.00
Crude Oil 46.50-47.15 48.40 49.20
EURO/USD 1.0955 1.1000-1.1054 1.1120
GBP/USD 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100 1.3190
USD/JPY 114.60-115.30 116.00 116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,207 1,200 1,190
Silver-XAG 16.10-15.65 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 46.00-45.30 44.00 43.60-42.90
EURO/USD 1.0890-1.0840 1.0750 1.0705
GBP/USD 1.2950-1.2890 1.2840 1.2770
USD/JPY 114.00-113.20 112.60 112.00-111.40

Intra-Day Strategy (10th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1236.40/oz and intraday low of US$1214.15/oz. Gold up by 0.147% at US$1220.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1234-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1221-1207 and 1200-1190. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,190
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,234-1,240
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.260

Buy
20-DMA   1263.13 Sell
50-DMA  

1247.05

Sell
100-DMA   1222.61 Buy
200-DMA   1250.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.2115 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.787 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Tuesday from made its intraday high of US$16.29/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.20/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.184% at US$16.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.10-15.65
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.30
R2     16.60-16.80
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   18.601 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.60 Sell
100-DMA   17.33 Sell
200-DMA   17.80 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   3.817 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.458 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$46.75/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.51/bbl and settled down by 0.77% at US$46.12/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.50-49.20 with stop loss at 49.20; targeting 46.00-45.30 and 44.00-43.60-42.90. Buy above 46.00-42.90 with risk daily closing below 42.90 and targeting 46.50-47.15 and 48.40-49.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.00-45.30
S2     44.00
S3     43.60-42.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.50-47.15
R2     48.40
R3     49.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.834 Sell
20-DMA   49.56 Sell
50-DMA   50.03 Sell
100-DMA   51.61 Sell
200-DMA   49.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.612 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.219 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0862/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0932/EUR and settled the day down by 0.457% at US$1.0872/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1110 targeting 1.0890-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0890-1.0750 with risk below 1.0750 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1110.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0890-1.0840
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0955
R2     1.1000-1.1054
R3     1.1120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.788 Buy
20-DMA   1.0829 Buy
50-DMA   1.0738 Buy
100-DMA   1.0673 Buy
200-DMA   1.0827 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.291 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2901/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2960/GBP and settled the day down by 0.177% at US$1.2931/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3015-1.3190 with targets at 1.2900-1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950-1.2890
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3015-1.3070
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3190

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.804

Buy
20-DMA   1.2808 Buy
50-DMA   1.2545 Buy
100-DMA   1.2469 Buy
200-DMA   1.2598 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.720 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.12/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.32/USD and settled the day up by 0.644% at JPY113.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.60-110.50 with targets of 113.20-114.00-and 114.60-115.30 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.20-112.60-112.00 and 111.40- 110.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.00-113.20
S2     112.60
S3     112.00-111.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.60-115.30
R2     116.00
R3     116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.234 Buy
20-DMA   110.98 Buy
50-DMA   111.73 Buy
100-DMA   113.07 Sell
200-DMA   109.38 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   89.540 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.716 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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