AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was flat Thursday as the market assessed the fallout from Trump's sacking of FBI Director James Comey. There are concerns Comey's abrupt dismissal could prove a distraction for the Trump administration's economic agenda. The dollar remains supported by expectations of further U.S. tightening this year. The pound was steady at the $1.29 mark ahead of the BoE rate decision and inflation report. The BoE is expected to keep policy on hold, raise its inflation projections and lower growth forecasts as Brexit talks proceed. The yen rose against the dollar supported by a bigger-than-expected Japanese current account surplus in March. The euro was flat below $1.09 as ECB chief Draghi said Wednesday it was too early to remove monetary stimulus. The ECB is due to release its economic bulletin and the EU its economic forecasts. The kiwi fell as the RBNZ kept its key rate at a record low of 1.75% and stood neutral on future policy.
  • The yen gained on Thursday in Asia as current account figures supported in otherwise thin trade ahead of key central bank meeting s in Europe later in the day. after the unadjusted current account for March came in at a surplus of ¥2.908 trillion, wider than the ¥2.643 trillion seen. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar fell on Thursday as the central bank held interest rates at a record low 1.75% and signaled a neutral stance on policy remains. Ahead, the market awaited the latest views from the European Central Bank after President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday it was too early for the ECB to suggest that euro zone inflation had met objectives and investors turned attention to the Bank of England’s quarterly report scheduled for Thursday, which will include its economic outlook, latest interest rate decision and minutes from the most recent policy meeting. Overnight, the dollar traded roughly flat against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investors reacted negatively to President Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director James Comey. In what was quiet day for top-tier economic data release, investors questioned whether Trump’s abrupt dismissal of FBI Director, James Comey, could prove a distraction and delay the Trump administration’s economic agenda. The New York times reported that days before he was fired, Comey asked the Justice Department for additional resources for the bureau's investigation into Russia's interference in the presidential election. Despite the dip in the dollar, sentiment remained bullish, as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark rate in June, after a flurry of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Officials. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan reiterated his view on Tuesday, that three total rate hikes in 2017, is the “baseline scenario” and insisted that the Fed would continue to monitor changes in economic activity, which could pave the way for a more hawkish or dovish approach to future rate hikes. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggested that faster interest rate hikes would be needed should unemployment continue to drop below the level of “natural employment” and cause the economy to overheat.
  • Oil prices rose by around 1 percent on Thursday, and Brent was firmly back over $50 per barrel, as a fall in U.S. fuel inventories and a bigger than expected cut in Saudi supplies to Asia tightened the market. The OPEC and other producers including Russia have pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year. So far, however, there have been few signs that markets have tightened significantly as producers shielded their biggest customers, especially in Asia, from the cuts. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has notified several Asian refiners of its first cuts in crude allocations for regional buyers since OPEC's output reduction took effect in January. Saudi Aramco will reduce oil supplies to Asian customers by about 7 million barrels in June. In the United States, crude stockpiles posted their biggest weekly drawdown since December last week as imports dropped sharply, while inventories of refined products also fell. Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels in the week to May 5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. At 522.5 million barrels, crude stocks were the lowest since February. While U.S. oil inventories fell, the country's crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA continued to rise, jumping above 9.3 million bpd last week, in what is now a more than 10 percent increase since its mid-2016 trough. BMI said that "continued output growth... particularly in the U.S." would cap price upside gains from the supply cuts, adding that it expected average 2017 prices of $57 per barrel for Brent and of $53.75 a barrel for WTI.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,240 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.30 16.60-16.80 17.00
Crude Oil 48.00-48.40 49.20 50.10
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0955 1.1000 1.1054-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 114.60-115.30 116.00 116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,221-1,207 1,200 1,190
Silver-XAG 16.10-15.65 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 47.15-46.50 46.00 45.30-44.00
EURO/USD 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750 1.0705
GBP/USD 1.2890-1.2840 1.2770 1.2705
USD/JPY 114.00-113.20 112.60 112.00-111.40

Intra-Day Strategy (11th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1225.48/oz and intraday low of US$1217.44/oz. Gold up by 0.147% at US$1218.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1260) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1234-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1221-1207 and 1200-1190. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,221-1,207
S2     1,200
S3     1,190
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,234-1,240
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.260

Buy
20-DMA   1263.13 Sell
50-DMA  

1247.05

Sell
100-DMA   1222.61 Buy
200-DMA   1250.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.2115 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.787 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed on Wednesday from made its intraday high of US$16.32/oz after setting intraday low of US$16.12/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.030% at US$16.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.35), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-15.30 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.10-15.65
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.30
R2     16.60-16.80
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   18.601 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.60 Sell
100-DMA   17.33 Sell
200-DMA   17.80 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   3.817 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.458 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$47.76/bbl and made an intraday low of US$46.00/bbl and settled up by 2.51% at US$47.33/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.00-50.10 with stop loss at 50.10; targeting 47.15-4.50 and 46.00-45.30-44.00. Buy above 47.15-44.00 with risk daily closing below 44.00 and targeting 48.00-48.40 and 49.20-50.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     47.15-46.50
S2     46.00
S3     45.30-44.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.00-48.40
R2     49.20
R3     50.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.107 Sell
20-DMA   48.98 Sell
50-DMA   49.77 Sell
100-DMA   51.49 Sell
200-DMA   49.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.910 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.110 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0852/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0897/EUR and settled the day down by 0.064% at US$1.0865/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0900-1.1110 targeting 1.0840-1.0800 and 1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0840-1.0705 with risk below 1.0705 targeting 1.0900-1.0955 and 1.1000-1.1055.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0840-1.0800
S2     1.0750
S3     1.0705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0955
R2     1.1000
R3     1.1054-1.1120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.401 Buy
20-DMA   1.0841 Buy
50-DMA   1.0745 Buy
100-DMA   1.0677 Buy
200-DMA   1.0826 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   9.291 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2924/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2987/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0618% at US$1.2935/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2950-1.3100 with targets at 1.2950-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2910-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2890-1.2840
S2     1.2770
S3     1.2705

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.3015-1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.367

Buy
20-DMA   1.2850 Buy
50-DMA   1.2571 Buy
100-DMA   1.2482 Buy
200-DMA   1.2595 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.720 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0107 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.61/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.37/USD and settled the day up by 0.254% at JPY114.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 114.00-111.40 with targets of 114.60-115.30 and 116.00-116.40 with stop below 116.40. Sell below 114.60-116.50 with risk above 116.50 targeting 114.00-113.20 and 112.60-112.00- 111.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.00-113.20
S2     112.60
S3     112.00-111.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.60-115.30
R2     116.00
R3     116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.269 Buy
20-DMA   111.25 Buy
50-DMA   111.73 Buy
100-DMA   113.04 Sell
200-DMA   109.45 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   90.540 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.716 Sell

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