AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Resilient Asian stocks edged up to a two-year high on Monday, shaking off threats from by a ransomware attack that locked some 200,000 computers in more than 150 countries at the weekend, a missile test by North Korea, and weak U.S. data. The weekend cyber attack, which slowed down after a security researcher stumbled on a way to at least temporarily limit the worm's spread, was expected to speed up on Monday when employees returning to work turned on their computers. But with little evidence of widespread disruption in the region on Monday, and governments and businesses taking precautions to contain the impact, investors appeared unalarmed, at least for now. North Korea said on Monday it had successfully tested a newly developed mid-to-long range missile on Sunday aimed at verifying its capability to carry a "large scale heavy nuclear warhead." The missile landed in the sea 97 km (60 miles) south of Russia. South Korea's military said it needs further analysis on the North's claim of technical advancement and that the possibility of the isolated nation mastering missile re-entry technology is low. North Korea is believed to be developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and reaching the U.S. mainland.
  • Dollar started the week on the defensive on Monday, after U.S. economic data came in shy of expectations and another missile test by North Korea over the weekend underpinned the perceived safe-haven yen. On Monday, North Korea said it had successfully conducted a newly developed mid-to-long range missile test on Sunday, supervised by leader Kim Jong Un and aimed at verifying the capability to carry a "large scale heavy nuclear warhead," according to the North's official KCNA news agency. The North fired a ballistic missile that landed in the sea near Russia on Sunday in a launch that Washington called a message to South Korea, days after its new president took office pledging to engage Pyongyang in dialogue On Friday, U.S. data showed a smaller-than-expected 0.4 percent increase in April retail sales from the previous month, while a disappointing report on consumer prices raised concerns about the retail sector and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates at its meeting next month. The central bank has forecast two more hikes this year after a quarter point increase in March. Net dollar long positions fell in the week ended May 9 to their lowest since early October, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. In that week, the euro marked its first net long positioning since early May 2014, as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief following pro-European Emmanuel Macron's victory over anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of France's presidential election on May 7. China reported industrial production rose a less than expected 6.5%, missing a 7.5% gain seen. As well, China said retail sales for April rose 10.&% on year, more than the 10.^% seen, and fixed-asset investment gained 8.9%, below the 9.1% expected. Last week, gold prices were higher on Friday to end the week little changed as the weaker dollar boosted demand for the precious metal. At the same time, the Labor Department reported that the annual rate of inflation slowed to 2.2% in April from 2.4% in March.
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's two top oil producers, agreed on Monday to extend oil output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018 in a bid to erode a global crude glut, pushing up prices. The timing of the announcement ahead of OPEC's next official meeting on May 25 and the statement's strong wording surprised markets, and the move will go a long way to ensure that other OPEC members and other producers who participated in the initial round of cuts fall into line. In a joint statement that followed an earlier meeting, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak said they had agreed to prolong an existing deal by another nine months until March 2018. The ministers pledged "to do whatever it takes" to reduce global inventories to their five-year average and expressed optimism they will secure support from producers beyond those in the current deal, the statement said. Under the current agreement that started on Jan. 1, the OPEC, and other producers including Russia pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year. Saudi, the defacto leader of OPEC, and Russia, the world's biggest producer, together control a fifth of global supplies. While it was broadly expected that OPEC and Russia would agree to extend the cut, the timing and wording of the statement sent crude prices up more than 1.5 percent in Asian trading. An OPEC source familiar with the market situation told Reuters earlier on Monday that oil inventories in floating storage have declined by one-third since the start of the year. Russia and Saudi Arabia together control around 20 million bpd in daily output.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,240 1,248 1,259-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.90 17.30 17.70
Crude Oil 48.90-49.20 50.10 50.70-51.40
EURO/USD 1.0955 1.1000 1.1054-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 114.60-115.30 116.00 116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,226-1,221 1,207 1,200
Silver-XAG 16.10-15.65 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 48.40-48.00 47.15 46.50-46.00
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.0840-1.0800 1.0750
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770 1.2705
USD/JPY 113.20 112.60 112.00-111.40

Intra-Day Strategy (15th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1231.58/oz and intraday low of US$1224.31/oz. Gold up by 0.300% at US$1228.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1247) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1234-1266 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1221-1207 and 1200-1190. Buy above 1232-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1239-1248 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,226-1,221
S2     1,207
S3     1,200
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,234-1,240
R2     1,248
R3     1,259-1,266

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.470

Buy
20-DMA   1251.53 Sell
50-DMA  

1245.72

Sell
100-DMA   1226.25 Buy
200-DMA   1247.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.218 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.996 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.47/oz and intraday low of US$16.29/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.920% at US$16.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.34), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.10-14.90 targeting 16.60-16.80 and 17.36-17.70; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 16.60-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.10-15.65
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.90
R2     17.30
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.038 Buy
20-DMA   17.01 Sell
50-DMA   17.47 Sell
100-DMA   17.35 Sell
200-DMA   17.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.817 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.452 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$48.06/bbl and made an intraday low of US$47.34/bbl and settled up by 0.167% at US$47.86/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.00-50.10 with stop loss at 50.10; targeting 47.15-4.50 and 46.00-45.30-44.00. Buy above 47.15-44.00 with risk daily closing below 44.00 and targeting 48.00-48.40 and 49.20-50.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.40-48.00
S2     47.15
S3     46.50-46.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.90-49.20
R2     50.10
R3     50.70-51.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.621 Sell
20-DMA   48.59 Sell
50-DMA   49.59 Sell
100-DMA   51.40 Sell
200-DMA   49.45 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.771 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.854 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0854/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.0933/EUR and settled the day up by 0.654% at US$1.0931/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.0955-1.1120 targeting 1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0800-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.0900-1.0705 with risk below 1.0705 targeting 1.0955-1.1000 and 1.1055-1.1120.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900
S2     1.0840-1.0800
S3     1.0750

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0955
R2     1.1000
R3     1.1054-1.1120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.295 Buy
20-DMA   1.0871 Buy
50-DMA   1.0758 Buy
100-DMA   1.0687 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.982 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0053 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2843/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2898/GBP and settled the day up by 0.038% at US$1.2883/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2950-1.3100 with targets at 1.2880-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2705 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2770
S3     1.2705

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.3015-1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.662

Buy
20-DMA   1.2883 Buy
50-DMA   1.2595 Buy
100-DMA   1.2494 Buy
200-DMA   1.2594 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.720 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0090 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY113.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.94/USD and settled the day down by 0.421% at JPY113.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 113.20-111.40 with targets of 114.60-115.30 and 116.00-116.40 with stop below 116.40. Sell below 114.60-116.50 with risk above 116.50 targeting 114.00-113.20 and 112.60-112.00- 111.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20
S2     112.60
S3     112.00-111.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.60-115.30
R2     116.00
R3     116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.315 Buy
20-DMA   111.70 Buy
50-DMA   111.70 Buy
100-DMA   112.96 Buy
200-DMA   109.56 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   56.295 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.786 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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