AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell on Thursday and the dollar was stuck near six-month lows against a basket of currencies as uncertainty mounted over U.S. President Donald Trump's future following reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation. The allegations have not only thrown doubt over the future of the pro-growth policies that Trump promised, but they have raised the possibility he could end up leaving the presidency. A small but growing number of Trump's fellow Republicans called on Wednesday for an independent probe of possible collusion between his 2016 campaign and Russia, and one even mentioned impeachment. The region's shares showed little reaction to news that former FBI chief Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, although the S&P mini futures were a shade higher while the dollar bounced modestly against the safe-haven yen. The U.S. currency was hurt as Treasury yields declined significantly with allegations against Trump lowering economic stimulus hopes. Home prices in China rose 0.7 percent in April, barely faster than the 0.6 percent increase in March, following tougher curbs aimed at driving speculators out of what had been a red hot market. Compared with a year ago, new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 10.7 percent in April, moderating from 11.3 percent in March, according to Reuters calculations based on data issued by the NBS on Thursday. Analysts say accelerated prices gains were likely supported by increased demand in smaller cities where property market curbs are less stiff.
  • The dollar wallowed near six-month lows against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as the U.S. political crisis appeared to deepen, threatening to delay efforts by President Donald Trump to implement his economic stimulus plans. The Justice Department appointed a former FBI director as special counsel to investigate possible collusion between President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign team and Russia. he appointment of a special counsel follows Trump's dismissal of James Comey, his FBI director who was investigating Russia's role in the U.S. election. Media then reported that Trump may have interfered with a federal investigation, a serious allegation that could even lead to his impeachment if verified. Trump's surprise election victory had initially sparked buying in the dollar and U.S. assets on hopes for his tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans, but such "Trump trades" have been wound back. Yet, U.S. political turmoil and softer-than-expected U.S. economic data such as retail sales, consumer inflation and housing starts in the past week is leading market players to discount the chance of more rate hikes. The yen gave a limited response to data showing Japan's GDP grew an annualized 2.2 percent in the first quarter, handily beating economists' forecast of 1.7% rise.
  • Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by plentiful supply despite ongoing efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by cutting production. The downward correction eroded gains from the previous session when prices rose on the back of a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and a slight dip in American production. The U.S. EIA said on Wednesday that crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels for the week to May 12, to 520.8 million barrels.. Overall oil supplies remain ample, with large amounts of crude from the United States and other producers being shipped to the big consumer regions in northern Asia, undermining the OPEC-led efforts to tighten the market Meanwhile, gasoline inventories dropped by only 0.413 mn against expectations for a draw of 0.731 million barrels while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.94 mn barrels, compared to expectations of a 1 million decline. The smaller than expected drawdown in both crude and gasoline inventories caused oil prices to dip but losses were pared later during session, as investors turned attention to OPEC’s meeting on May 25. OPEC is increasingly expected to extend the current deal to cut production at its meeting next week amid growing support for a deal extension from OPEC nations such as Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Venezuela. A report from the IEA on Wednesday, however, warned that OPEC’s effort to rein in the glut in supply may fail even if the oil group agrees to extend its supply-cut agreement. Despite the recent rally, oil futures have erased most of the gains achieved since November, when OPEC and other producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 mn bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,264-1,270 1,276 1,284
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.30 17.50 17.70
Crude Oil 48.40-48.90 49.20 50.10
EURO/USD 1.1170 1.1200 1.1260-1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,248 1,240 1,228-1,221
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 48.00 47.15-46.50 45.40
EURO/USD 1.1130-1.1100 1.1054 1.1000-1.0955
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770 1.2705
USD/JPY 111.10 110.50-109.70 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (18th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1261.15/oz and intraday low of US$1236.38/oz. Gold up by 1.947% at US$1260.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1247) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1264-1284 keeping stop loss closing above 1284 and targeting 1254-1247 and 1240-1228-1221. Buy above 1254-1228 with risk below 1228, targeting 1264-1270 and 1276-1284.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,248
S2     1,240
S3     1,228-1,221
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,264-1,270
R2     1,276
R3     1,284

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.815

Buy
20-DMA   1246.79 Sell
50-DMA  

1247.85

Sell
100-DMA   1229.81 Buy
200-DMA   1246.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.200 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.644 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.81/oz and intraday low of US$16.74/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.356% at US$16.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 16.80-17.36 and 17.50-17.70; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.80-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.30
R2     17.50
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.705 Buy
20-DMA   16.87 Sell
50-DMA   17.44 Sell
100-DMA   17.37 Sell
200-DMA   17.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.817 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.322 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$49.36/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.14/bbl and settled up by 1.249% at US$48.20/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.40-50.10 with stop loss at 50.10; targeting 48.00-47.15 and 46.50-46.00. Buy above 48.00-46.00 with risk daily closing below 46.00 and targeting 49.20-50.10 and 50.70-51.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.00
S2     47.15-46.50
S3     45.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.40-48.90
R2     49.20
R3     50.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.036 Sell
20-DMA   48.17 Sell
50-DMA   49.40 Sell
100-DMA   51.31 Sell
200-DMA   49.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.771 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.684 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1079/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1161/EUR and settled the day up by 0.694% at US$1.1158/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1170-1.1300 targeting 1.1130-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.1000-1.0955 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.1130-1.0900 with risk below 1.0900 targeting 1.1170-1.1200 and 1.1260-1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1130-1.1100
S2     1.1054
S3     1.1000-1.0955

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1170
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1260-1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.622 Buy
20-DMA   1.0934 Buy
50-DMA   1.0793 Buy
100-DMA   1.0707 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.982 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0073 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2904/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2989/GBP and settled the day up by 0.410% at US$1.2967/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2970-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2705 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2770
S3     1.2705

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970
R2     1.3015-1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.314

Buy
20-DMA   1.2902 Buy
50-DMA   1.2641 Buy
100-DMA   1.2514 Buy
200-DMA   1.2593 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.894 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0081 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.97/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.11/USD and settled the day down by 2.03% at JPY110.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-109.70 with targets of 112.60-113.20 and 114.60-115.30-116.00 with stop below 116.40. Sell below 112.60-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 112.00-111.40 and 110.50-109.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.10
S2     110.50-109.70
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.734 Buy
20-DMA   112.12 Buy
50-DMA   111.65 Buy
100-DMA   112.87 Sell
200-DMA   109.67 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   18.295 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.654 Sell

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