AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were slightly higher on Friday after a sluggish start, while the dollar held most of the gains it made overnight on strong U.S. economic data as some risk appetite returned despite caution over political turbulence in the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump's dismissal of Comey last week set off a political firestorm that led to Wall Street's biggest sell-off in over eight months on Wednesday after media reported that Comey had written a memo stating that Trump had asked him to drop a probe into his former national security advisor's Russian connections On Thursday, Trump tersely denied the allegations and decried a "witch hunt" against him. The Justice Department's appointment on Wednesday of a special counsel to probe possible ties between Russia and Trump's presidential campaign helped calm markets and lifted Wall Street on Thursday. Temer refused on Thursday to resign after the Supreme Court authorized an investigation into the allegations. The investigation raised the possibility a second Brazilian president could fall in less than a year and sparked doubts Congress would pass Temer's ambitious austerity agenda.
  • The dollar slipped back lower against other major currencies on Friday, hovering within close distance of a six-month trough as political turmoil continued to weigh on demand for the greenback. The greenback briefly strengthened after the release on Thursday of upbeat data on U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area. But the dollar remained under broad selling pressure following reports this week that U.S. President Donald Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to end the agency's investigation into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia. Former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed on Wednesday by the Justice Department as a special counsel to take over the probe into Russia's interference in the 2016 election.
  • Gold gained in Asia on Friday on heightened risk sentiment over political turmoil in Brazil and the U.S. and a potentially softer outlook for Fed rate hikes this year as the Trump administration faces headwinds on its economic stimulus plans. Overnight, gold futures pulled back from two-week highs on Thursday, after stronger U.S. manufacturing and initial jobless claims data dented the ‘flight to safety’ trade. Demand fell for traditional safe-havens such as gold, U.S. treasuries, and the yen, as investors turned attention to better than expected U.S. economic data, despite continued political turmoil in Washington. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Tuesday that its Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to a seasonally adjusted 38.8, from 22.0 in the preceding month, well above analysts’ expectations of a rise to 19.5. In a separate report on Tuesday, The Labor Department said the number of Americans who filed for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 12, dropped by 4000 to 232,000. Meanwhile, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester on Thursday repeated her call for further U.S. interest rate hikes in the wake of recent U.S. economic data, showing that the rate of employment and inflation is close to matching the Fed’s objectives.
  • Crude prices staged a mild rally in Asia on Friday with U.S. crude nearing the key $50 a barrel mark ahead of weekly rig count figures expected to set the near-term tone ahead of next week's meeting of OPEC and allied producers on production cuts. In figures reported last Friday, oilfield servcies firm Baker Hughes said U.S. drillers added 9 oil rigs to take the total to 712, rigs for the 17th weekly gain in a row and extending an 11-month drilling recovery to the highest level since August 2015, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, as investors remained optimistic that OPEC would reach an agreement to extend the current supply-cut deal beyond June at its meeting next week. In what was a choppy day of trade, oil futures recovered from a more than 1% slump, as investors' optimism that OPEC would seek an extension of the current deal to cut global production offset concerns over the rising level of U.S. shale production. The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday, crude oil inventories fell by 1.75 million barrels last week, which was the sixth-straight week of declining crude stockpiles but the dip in inventories fell short of expectations of a draw of around 2.4 million barrels. Despite the high level of compliance from OPEC members with the deal to rein in supply, global production remains above the five-year average, as non-OPEC members, who are not part of the supply-cut agreement have ramped up production. In its monthly report last Thursday, OPEC estimated that non-OPEC production this year would grow by 950,000 barrels per day (bpd). OPEC and other producers are set to meet on May 25 to decide whether to extend the current supply-cut deal amid growing optimism for a prolonged period of cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed earlier this week that production cuts needed to be extended for a period of nine months until March 2018. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, however, warned that OPEC’s effort to rein in the glut in supply may fail even if the oil group agrees to extend its supply-cut agreement.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,264-1,270 1,276
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.30 17.50 17.70
Crude Oil 50.10-51.00 51.70 52.20
EURO/USD 1.1130-1.1170 1.1200 1.1260-1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,241 1,228-1,221 1,207
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 49.20-48.40 48.00 47.15-46.50
EURO/USD 1.1100 1.1054 1.1000-1.0955
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770 1.2705
USD/JPY 111.10 110.50-109.70 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (19th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1264.92/oz and intraday low of US$1245.83/oz. Gold down by 1.076% at US$1246.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1247) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1276 keeping stop loss closing above 1284 and targeting 1241-1228 and 1221-1207. Buy above 1241-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1264-1270 and 1276-1284.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,241
S2     1,228-1,221
S3     1,207
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,251
R2     1,264-1,270
R3     1,276

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.209

Buy
20-DMA   1244.35 Sell
50-DMA  

1248.54

Sell
100-DMA   1230.75 Buy
200-DMA   1245.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.200 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.734 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.94/oz and intraday low of US$16.42/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.838% at US$16.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 16.80-17.36 and 17.50-17.70; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.80-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.30
R2     17.50
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.494 Buy
20-DMA   16.74 Sell
50-DMA   17.42 Sell
100-DMA   17.38 Sell
200-DMA   17.66 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.817 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.284 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$49.58/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.02/bbl and settled up by 0.838% at US$49.32/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.10-52.20 with stop loss at 52.20; targeting 49.20-48.40 and 48.00-47.15-46.50. Buy above 49.20-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 49.20-50.10 and 50.70-51.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20-48.40
S2     48.00
S3     47.15-46.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.10-51.00
R2     51.70
R3     52.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.869 Sell
20-DMA   48.14 Sell
50-DMA   49.41 Sell
100-DMA   51.23 Sell
200-DMA   49.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.771 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.322 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1074/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1171/EUR and settled the day down by 0.457% at US$1.1101/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1150-1.1300 targeting 1.1100-1.1054 and 1.1000-1.0955 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1110. Buy above 1.1100-1.0900 with risk below 1.0900 targeting 1.1150-1.1200 and 1.1260-1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1100
S2     1.1054
S3     1.1000-1.0955

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1130-1.1170
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1260-1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.714 Buy
20-DMA   1.0952 Buy
50-DMA   1.0801 Buy
100-DMA   1.0713 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.982 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0089 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2880/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3047/GBP and settled the day down by 0.246% at US$1.2935/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2970-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2705 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2770
S3     1.2705

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970
R2     1.3015-1.3070
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.372

Buy
20-DMA   1.2907 Buy
50-DMA   1.2656 Buy
100-DMA   1.2520 Buy
200-DMA   1.2593 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.894 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0077 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.618% at JPY111.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-109.70 with targets of 112.60-113.20 and 114.60-115.30-116.00 with stop below 116.40. Sell below 112.60-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 112.00-111.40 and 110.50-109.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.10
S2     110.50-109.70
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.079 Buy
20-DMA   112.26 Buy
50-DMA   111.48 Buy
100-DMA   112.75 Sell
200-DMA   109.76 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   20.295 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.275 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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