AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks posted their biggest daily rise in a month on Monday following modest gains in U.S. shares, though the greenback came under renewed pressure as Washington's political turmoil undermines confidence in U.S. economic policy. With U.S. President Donald Trump touring in the Middle East and Europe and no major economic indicators due this week, investors are hoping for a week of consolidation after a flurry of U.S. political controversies rattled markets. U.S. stocks ended up on Friday but closed below their session highs on renewed concerns about Trump's presidency, following two new media reports of possible coordination between Russia and his election campaign. Recent economic improvement in the euro zone has raised market expectations the European Central Bank will tone down its dovish language at its next Governing Council meeting next month.
  • The dollar inched higher on Monday, but remained close to six-month lows against a basket of currencies as investors assessed the impact of the latest bout of U.S. political turmoil and a resurgent euro. U.S. President Donald Trump, now on a trip to the Middle East, left behind political drama in Washington that some fear could derail his administration's promises of tax reform and fiscal stimulus, if not his presidency. Those fears threaten to offset much of the dollar-positive sentiment generated by expectations for a U.S interest rate rise next month. Trump's budget proposal, set to be unveiled on Tuesday, will include cuts to Medicaid and propose changes to other assistance programs for low-income citizens, the Washington Post reported on Sunday. Uproar over Trump's recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president's election campaign team and Russia, has pressured the dollar. A current White House official is a significant person of interest in investigation, the Washington Post said on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The second reading of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be released on Friday and is expected to be revised up from a preliminary estimate of annual growth of 0.7 percent. That would be the weakest growth in three years, though many economists think it will just prove to be a blip. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that the U.S. central bank's expected plans for rate increases may be too fast for an economy that has shown recent signs of weakness. Several Fed policymakers are due to speak this week, and the central bank on Wednesday will publish minutes of its May meeting, which preceded the most recent political developments. Net long positioning on the euro rose to its highest in more than three years in the week ended May 16, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. Recent economic improvement in the euro zone have raised market expectations the European Central Bank will tone down its dovish language at its next Governing Council meeting next month.
  • Gold drifted weaker in Asia on Monday as Donald Trump's first visits abroad as president were in focus with a flurry of deals signed in Saudi Arabia in the first stop and with investors shrugging off the latest missile test by North Korea at the weekend. In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for fresh indications on the possible timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Revised data on U.S. first quarter growth and private sector survey data out of the euro zone will also be in focus. The Justice Department on Wednesday appointed a former FBI director as special counsel to investigate possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia. The appointment of a special counsel comes after Trump fired James Comey, his FBI director who was leading a probe into Russia’s role in the election and reports that he attempted to interfere with the judicial process, leading to talk of possible impeachment. Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by reports that an OPEC-led supply cut may not only be extended into next year but might also be deepened to tighten the market and prop up prices. Prices have risen because of expectations that a pledge by the OPEC and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million bpd would be extended to March 2018, instead of covering just the first half of this year. The option of deepening the production cut was also being discussed ahead of a meeting of OPEC and its allies in Vienna on May 25, sources said. This is because OPEC's oil supplies in 2017 have so far not actually fallen when compared with last year, when oversupply was seen at its worst. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects "OPEC net oil export revenues will rise to about $539 billion dollars in 2017, versus 2016". OPEC's pledge to tighten the market is also being undermined by oil drillers in the United States. Goldman Sachs says that the U.S. rig count for new oil production had jumped by 404 since May last year, a rise of 128 percent. U.S. oil production has already climbed by 10 percent, or almost 900,000 bpd, since mid-2016 to 9.3 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,258 1,264-1,270 1,276
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.30 17.50 17.70
Crude Oil 51.00 51.70-52.20 53.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1260-1.1300 1.1365
GBP/USD 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100 1.3180
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,249-1,241 1,228 1,221-1,207
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 50.10 49.20-48.40 48.00
EURO/USD 1.1170-1.1130 1.1100 1.1054
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770
USD/JPY 111.10 110.50-109.70 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Friday and made its intraday high of 1256.28/oz and intraday low of US$1246.13/oz. Gold down by 0.653% at US$1254.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1247) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1258-1276 keeping stop loss closing above 1284 and targeting 1247-1241-1228 and 1221-1207. Buy above 1247-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1264-1270 and 1276-1284.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,249-1,241
S2     1,228
S3     1,221-1,207
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,258
R2     1,264-1,270
R3     1,276

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.455

Buy
20-DMA   1243.59 Sell
50-DMA  

1249.65

Sell
100-DMA   1231.78 Buy
200-DMA   1245.35 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.200 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.124 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.84/oz and intraday low of US$16.55/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.691% at US$16.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 16.80-17.36 and 17.50-17.70; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.80-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.30
R2     17.50
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.896 Buy
20-DMA   16.69 Sell
50-DMA   17.42 Sell
100-DMA   17.39 Sell
200-DMA   17.64 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   55.426 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.233 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$50.49/bbl and made an intraday low of US$49.28/bbl and settled up by 0.838% at US$50.45/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.00-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting 50.10-49.20 and 48.40-48.00-47.15. Buy above 49.20-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 49.20-50.10 and 50.70-51.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10
S2     49.20-48.40
S3     48.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.00
R2     51.70-52.20
R3     53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.636 Sell
20-DMA   48.25 Sell
50-DMA   49.47 Sell
100-DMA   51.21 Sell
200-DMA   49.63 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.771 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.082 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1096/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1211/EUR and settled the day up by 0.945% at US$1.1207/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1365 targeting 1.1170-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.1000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.1170-1.1054 with risk below 1.1054 targeting 1.1200-1.1260 and 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1170-1.1130
S2     1.1100
S3     1.1054

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1260-1.1300
R3     1.1365

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.068 Buy
20-DMA   1.0972 Buy
50-DMA   1.0814 Buy
100-DMA   1.0721 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.113 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2919/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3039/GBP and settled the day down by 0.765% at US$1.3034/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2970-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2705 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2970
S2     1.2900-1.2840
S3     1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3015-1.3070
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.379

Buy
20-DMA   1.2921 Buy
50-DMA   1.2673 Buy
100-DMA   1.2528 Buy
200-DMA   1.2594 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.894 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0077 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.03/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.69/USD and settled the day down by 0.188% at JPY111.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.10-109.20 with targets of 112.00-112.60 and 113.20-114.60 with stop below 114.60. Sell below 112.00-113.20 with risk above 113.20 targeting 111.10-110.50 and 109.70-109.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.10
S2     110.50-109.70
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.781 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Buy
50-DMA   111.41 Buy
100-DMA   112.69 Sell
200-DMA   109.81 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   31.295 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.183 Sell

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