AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Sterling slipped on Tuesday after a suspected suicide attack killed at least 19 people and wounded 59 at a pop concert in the English city of Manchester, while the euro held gains made after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was "too weak". Despite the explosion, at a concert by U.S. singer Ariana Grande, European markets were poised for a positive start. The attack came just two-and-a-half weeks before an election that Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to win easily, although polls showing that the contest was tightening added to sterling's woes. If the blast is confirmed as a terrorist incident, it would be the deadliest attack in Britain by militants since four British Muslims killed 52 people in suicide bombings on London's transport system in July 2005. Overnight, Wall Street closed as much as 0.8 percent higher, driven by defense and technology stocks, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced arms deals and other investments with Saudi Arabia over the weekend that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said could add up to $350 billion. An uncertain political climate in the U.S. continued to weigh on the dollar, but a slowdown in Japanese manufacturing activity limited losses versus the yen. The White House is set to deliver Trump's first full budget to lawmakers later on Tuesday. The plan would cut $3.6 trillion in government spending over 10 years, balancing the budget by the end of the decade. Presidential budgets are often ignored by Congress, which controls federal purse strings. But the budget plan, which proposed the sale of half the country's strategic oil reserves, weighed on crude futures, offsetting optimism over expectations that other major oil producers would agree to extend supply curbs this week.
  • The dollar fell to a more than six-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday, extending its losses from last week, as an uncertain U.S. political climate and a buoyant euro weighed on the greenback. The dollar fell more than 2 percent last week, logging its worst performance in more than a year, amid growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president's team and Russia. Political turmoil in Washington has also raised worries that there could be delays in Trump's efforts to implement his economic stimulus plans. The greenback was also pressured by a rallying euro, which hit a more than six-month high against the dollar on Monday after Germany's Angela Merkel prefaced a summit of G7 leaders later this week by saying a "too weak" currency was behind her country's massive trade surplus. Speaking to students at a secondary school in Berlin, Merkel said that Germany's huge export earnings were propelled by two factors over which the government had no influence, namely the euro's exchange rate and oil prices.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed the sale of half the country's strategic oil reserves, even as producer club OPEC and its allies cut output to tighten the market. The White House budget plan would gradually sell off half of the nation's emergency oil stockpile to raise $16.5bn from October 2018, documents released on Monday showed. It also suggested opening up more production in Alaska. The budget, which will be delivered to Congress on Tuesday, is meant as a proposal and may not take effect in its current form. But it reveals the administration's policy hopes, which include ramping up American energy output. The plan was released just a day after Trump left OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia following his first overseas state-visit. Any large release of U.S. strategic reserves would jolt oil markets, where the OPEC and other producers, including Russia, have pledged to cut output by 1.8 million bpd in order to tighten the market. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and other participating producers will meet on May 25 and are expected to extend the period of the cut from just the first half of this year to all of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. Oystein Berentsen, managing director for oil trading company Strong Petroleum in Singapore said the White House proposal was a surprise, but added that over a 10 year period the sales would only amount to around 95,000 bpd. Releasing reserves would add supplies to already high and rising U.S. production of 9.3 mn bpd, not far off levels of top suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia. The White House plan moves come after Goldman Sachs warned of "risks for a renewed surplus later next year if OPEC and Russia's production rises to their expanding capacity and shale grows at an unbridled rate." Demand may also slow. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that quarterly GDP growth in the OECD area decelerated sharply to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2017, compared with 0.7% in the previous quarter.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,264-1,270 1,276 1,284
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.50 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 51.00 51.70-52.20 53.00
EURO/USD 1.1260-1.1295 1.1365 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3015-1.3070 1.3100 1.3180
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,258 1,249-1,241 1,228
Silver-XAG 16.90-16.60 16.10 15.65-15.30
Crude Oil 50.10 49.20-48.40 48.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1170-1.1130 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770
USD/JPY 111.00 110.50-109.70 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Monday and made its intraday high of 1262.46/oz and intraday low of US$1251.66/oz. Gold up by 0.273% at US$1260.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1245) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1264-1284 keeping stop loss closing above 1284 and targeting 1254-1247 and 1241-1228-1221. Buy above 1254-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1264-1270 and 1276-1284.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,258
S2     1,249-1,241
S3     1,228
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,264-1,270
R2     1,276
R3     1,284

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.856

Buy
20-DMA   1243.88 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.96

Buy
100-DMA   1232.95 Buy
200-DMA   1245.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.826 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.098 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.19/oz and intraday low of US$16.83/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.601% at US$17.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-15.30 targeting 17.36-17.50 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.40-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.90-16.30-16.10 and 15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90-16.60
S2     16.10
S3     15.65-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.50
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.811 Buy
20-DMA   16.69 Buy
50-DMA   17.43 Sell
100-DMA   17.41 Sell
200-DMA   17.63 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.426 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.166 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$51.41/bbl and made an intraday low of US$50.72/bbl and settled up by 0.176% at US$51.00/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.24 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.00-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting 50.10-49.20 and 48.40-48.00-47.15. Buy above 49.20-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 49.20-50.10 and 50.70-51.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10
S2     49.20-48.40
S3     48.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.00
R2     51.70-52.20
R3     53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.603 Sell
20-DMA   48.42 Sell
50-DMA   49.54 Sell
100-DMA   51.19 Sell
200-DMA   49.68 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.771 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.138 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1160/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1263/EUR and settled the day up by 0.945% at US$1.1236/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1260-1.1365 targeting 1.1200-1.1170-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.1000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.1170-1.1054 with risk below 1.1054 targeting 1.1200-1.1260 and 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200
S2     1.1170-1.1130
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1260-1.1295
R2     1.1365
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.981 Buy
20-DMA   1.0990 Buy
50-DMA   1.0827 Buy
100-DMA   1.0730 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.363 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0112 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2964/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3042/GBP and settled the day up by 0.061% at US$1.3000/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2970-1.3100 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840 and 1.2775-1.2700, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2705 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2950-1.3015 and 1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2970
S2     1.2900-1.2840
S3     1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3015-1.3070
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.379

Buy
20-DMA   1.2921 Buy
50-DMA   1.2673 Buy
100-DMA   1.2528 Buy
200-DMA   1.2594 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   72.570 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0077 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.92/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.60/USD and settled the day up by 0.279% at JPY111.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.10-109.20 with targets of 112.00-112.60 and 113.20-114.60 with stop below 114.60. Sell below 112.00-113.20 with risk above 113.20 targeting 111.10-110.50 and 109.70-109.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.50-109.70
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.781 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Buy
50-DMA   111.41 Buy
100-DMA   112.69 Sell
200-DMA   109.81 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   31.295 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.183 Sell

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