AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks handed back earlier modest gains and drifted lower on Monday, running short of incentives to push past two-year highs with many key markets closed for holidays. Pyongyang fired what appeared to be a short-range ballistic missile early on Monday. The dollar and U.S. stocks would face downward risks if trouble for the Trump administration becomes a long-term concern, said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities. Sterling suffered its steepest fall since January on Friday after an opinion poll showed the governing Conservatives' lead over the Labour opposition down to just 5 percentage points with less than two weeks before a general election.
  • The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Monday, moving away from last week's 6-1/2-month lows and shrugging off news of North Korea's latest missile test as investor attention turned to the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hike next month. San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said in Singapore on Monday that medium-term trends in U.S. inflation remained "pretty favorable," despite some recent soft consumer price data. The U.S. economy was at or near the Federal Reserve's goals of full employment and stable prices, Williams said, adding that the U.S. central bank wanted to ensure markets stayed calm as the Fed slowly returned interest-rate policy to normal. Data on Friday indicated the U.S. economy was modestly expanding, which might allow the Fed to raise interest rates further and to begin paring its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Gross domestic product grew at an annual 1.2 percent in the first quarter, faster than the 0.7 percent reported last month, though softening business investment and moderate consumer spending might impede an acceleration in the second quarter. Rates futures implied traders saw a nearly 90 percent chance the Fed would increase rates by a quarter point to 1.00-1.25 percent at its June 13-14 policy meeting. North Korea fired what appeared to be a short-range ballistic missile on Monday that landed in the sea off its east coast, South Korea's military said, the latest in a series of missile tests defying world pressure and threats of more sanctions. With U.S. and UK markets closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday, major currency pairs were likely to tread water, with few incentives to take new positions. Continuing political turmoil in Washington also kept investors cautious. U.S. President Donald Trump, returning to the White House after a nine-day trip to the Middle East and Europe, attacked the media and dismissed leaks as "fake news" on Sunday, following reports his son-in-law tried to set up a secret channel of communication with Moscow before Trump took office. Net long positioning on the euro rose to its highest in more than three years in the week through May 23, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. Fading political risk in France and a stronger eurozone economy have led to heightened speculation that the European Central Bank may scale back its massive monetary stimulus. ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak at the European Parliament later on Monday. Last week Draghi said there was "no reason to deviate from the indications" that the central bank has already laid down. The latest weekend polls showed the Conservative Party's lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed sharply since last week's terror attack in Manchester, suggesting Prime Minister Theresa May might not win by the landslide predicted just a month ago Four opinion polls published on Saturday showed that May's lead had contracted by a range of 2 to 6 percentage points, indicating the election could be much tighter than thought when she called the snap vote.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday as a relentless rise in U.S. drilling undermined an OPEC-led push to tighten supply. Trading activity will be subdued on Monday due to public holidays in China, the United States and Britain. The OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed last week to extend a pledge to cut production by around 1.8 million bpd until the end of the first quarter of 2018. But the decision did not go as far as many investors had hoped and led to a heavy sell-off. An initial agreement, in place since January, would have expired in June this year. Despite the ongoing cuts, oil prices have not risen much beyond $50 per barrel. Much of OPEC's success will depend on output in the United States, which is not participating in the cuts and where production has soared 10 percent since mid-2016 to over 9.3 mn bpd, close to top producer levels Russia and Saudi Arabia. U.S. drillers have now added rigs for 19 straight weeks, to 722, the highest amount since April 2015 and the longest run of additions on record, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc. Almost all of the recent U.S. output increases have been onshore, from so-called shale oil fields. Analysts say that reducing bloated global fuel inventories will be key to reining in ongoing oversupply. While it is hard to come by reliable global oil inventory data, regional stock levels for the United States, Europe and parts of Asia suggest that inventories have dipped in recent weeks, albeit from record levels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th May 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,276 1,284 1,290
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.70 18.10 18.50
Crude Oil 50.10-51.00 51.60 52.50
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1260-1.1295 1.1365
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2970 1.3015 1.3100
USD/JPY 111.50 112.00-112.60 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th May 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,252 1,247 1,241
Silver-XAG 17.20-16.90 16.60 16.10-15.65
Crude Oil 49.00 48.40-47.70 46.95
EURO/USD 1.1170-1.1130 1.1100 1.0480
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2770-1.2700 1.2620
USD/JPY 111.00 110.50-109.70 109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th May 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1269.32/oz and intraday low of US$1253.02/oz. Gold down by 0.915% at US$1266.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1244) and breakage above will call for 1292-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing ktrend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1258-1276 keeping stop loss closing above 1284 and targeting 1247-1241 and 1228-1221. Buy above 1247-1207 with risk below 1207, targeting 1254-1264-1270 and 1276-1284.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260-1,252
S2     1,247
S3     1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,276
R2     1,284
R3     1,290

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.567

Buy
20-DMA   1242.80 Buy
50-DMA  

1254.21

Buy
100-DMA   1236.57 Buy
200-DMA   1243.34 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.305 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.953 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.32/oz and intraday low of US$17.09/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.168% at US$17.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.36), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.20-15.30 targeting 17.50-17.70 and 18.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.50-18.50 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 17.20-16.90-16.30 and 16.10-15.65.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.20-16.90
S2     16.60
S3     16.10-15.65

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.50-17.70
R2     18.10
R3     18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.163 Buy
20-DMA   16.70 Buy
50-DMA   17.43 Sell
100-DMA   17.44 Sell
200-DMA   17.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.426 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.023 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$49.93/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.16/bbl and settled down by 5.07% at US$49.85/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.74 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.10-52.50 with stop loss at 52.50; targeting 49.00-48.40-47.70 and 46.5-46.00. Buy above 49.00-46.95 with risk daily closing below 46.90 and targeting 50.10-51.00 and 51.70-52.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.00
S2     48.40-47.70
S3     46.95

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.10-51.00
R2     51.60
R3     52.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.284 Sell
20-DMA   48.61 Sell
50-DMA   49.60 Sell
100-DMA   51.06 Sell
200-DMA   49.74 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.192 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1159/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1234/EUR and settled the day down by 0.321% at US$1.1180/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0702), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1420 targeting 1.1170-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.1000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.1170-1.1048 with risk below 1.1048 targeting 1.1200-1.1260-1.1300 and 1.1365-1.1420.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1170-1.1130
S2     1.1100
S3     1.0480

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1260-1.1295
R3     1.1365

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.195 Buy
20-DMA   1.1048 Buy
50-DMA   1.0862 Buy
100-DMA   1.0755 Buy
200-DMA   1.0821 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.267 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0106 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2930/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3014/GBP and settled the day down by 0.239% at US$1.2939/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2900-1.3100 with targets at 1.2800-1.2775 and 1.2700-1.2620, breakage above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3150 as targets. Buy above 1.2800-1.2620 with stop loss closing below 1.2620 targeting 1.2900-1.2970 and 1.3015-1.3070-1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800
S2     1.2770-1.2700
S3     1.2620

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2970
R2     1.3015
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.340

Buy
20-DMA   1.2926 Buy
50-DMA   1.2732 Buy
100-DMA   1.2559 Buy
200-DMA   1.2589 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.570 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0040 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.94/USD and settled the day down by 0.420% at JPY111.34/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.50-109.20 with targets of 112.00-112.60 and 113.20-114.60 with stop below 114.60. Sell below 112.00-113.20 with risk above 113.20 targeting 111.10-110.50 and 109.70-109.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.50-109.70
S3     109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50
R2     112.00-112.60
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.325 Buy
20-DMA   112.28 Sell
50-DMA   111.23 Buy
100-DMA   112.48 Sell
200-DMA   110.04 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   47.993 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0398 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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