AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell on Monday, with electronics heavyweights such as Samsung Electronics knocked lower by a slide in U.S. tech shares and caution ahead of this week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. Electronics shipments have helped lead an export revival for many of Asia's trade-reliant economies. The Fed will begin a two-day meeting ending on Wednesday at which it is widely expected to hike interest rates. The focus is on whether the Fed thinks the U.S. economy is robust enough to withstand further rate increases through 2017 and how it plans to whittle down its massive balance sheet. A rate hike accompanied by a message suggesting that the Fed may raise rates more than expected in 2017 would support the dollar but be negative for equity markets. Equities navigated through last week's potential landmine events relatively unscathed. Congressional testimony by former FBI Director James Comey caused few market ructions, and the fallout of Britain's surprise parliamentary election result, at which the ruling party lost the majority, was mostly contained to the pound.
  • Sterling steadied on Monday as British Prime Minister Theresa May scrambled to pick up the pieces and reunite her Conservative Party after a disastrous election that could disrupt Brexit negotiations. The pound had tumbled by as much as 2.5 percent in the previous session to its lowest since mid-April after no single party won a clear claim to power in the UK election on Thursday - a result flagged by some analysts as the worst possible election outcome due to uncertainty. May is now trying to unite a disillusioned party around her to not only support her in the Brexit talks but also to strike a deal with a small Northern Irish party that will enable her to stay in power. The euro showed little reaction, after projections following the first round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday showed that President Emmanuel Macron's fledgling party was set to secure a huge majority. The outcome of initial results was in line with expectations. French President Emmanuel Macron's party is on track for a comfortable majority in the National Assembly. Macron's La République en Marche won 32% of the vote in the first round of the parliamentary elections. The dollar was off 0.14% at 110.19 yen on some safe-haven buying of the Japanese unit.
  • Japanese data released Monday were mixed, with the PPI flat.
  • Gold prices kicked off the week with modest losses in European trading on Monday, as investors looked ahead to a Federal Reserve policy meeting, while keeping an eye on political developments in the U.K. A key focus for markets this week is the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday. With the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates, investors' focus will be on any fresh hints on the pace of further tightening in the months to come and next year. Market players will also pay close attention to details of the Fed's plan to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year. The median Fed policymaker forecast is for two more rate increases by year-end, after already raising its benchmark interest rate once this year, by a quarter percentage point in March. But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data combined with growing uncertainty about the Trump administration's ability to pass tax and healthcare reforms sparked doubts over the Fed's ability to raise rates as much as it would like before the end of the year. Besides the Fed, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on inflation, retail sales, producer prices, building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, consumer sentiment as well as surveys on manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia and New York regions.
  • Oil prices edged lower in European trading on Monday, giving back small overnight gains as the market weighed a relentless increase in U.S. drilling against ongoing efforts by major producers to cut output and reduce a global glut. Oil prices suffered their third straight weekly loss last week, amid concern that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance the market remained in focus.
  • Energy services company Baker Hughes said on Friday that U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 21st week in a row, the longest such streak on record, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The U.S. rig count rose by 8 to 741, extending a year-long drilling recovery to the highest level since April 2015. The increase in U.S. drilling activity and shale production has mostly offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market. Last month, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to assess global supply and demand levels. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for July inched down 0.6 cents, or about 0.4%, to $1.498 a gallon, while July heating oil shed 0.1 cents to $1.429 a gallon. Natural gas futures for July delivery dipped 2.1 cents to $3.018 per million British thermal units.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,278 1,286 1,300-1,307
Silver-XAG 17.50-18.05 18.30 18.60
Crude Oil 46.00 46.95-47.50 48.40
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1290-1.1370 1.1425
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2980
USD/JPY 110.40 111.10 111.60-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254-1,246 1,241
Silver-XAG 16.90 16.60 16.10-15.65
Crude Oil 45.22-44.45 43.90 43.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1100-1.1055 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2720 1.2670-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 110.00 109.50-109.00 108.55

Intra-Day Strategy (12th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1281.62/oz and intraday low of US$1264.52/oz. Gold down by 1.141% at US$1266.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1241) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1307 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1246-1240. Buy above 1260-1240 with risk below 1240, targeting 1270-1278-186 and 1294-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254-1,246
S3     1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,278
R2     1,286
R3     1,300-1,307

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.060

Buy
20-DMA   1265.18 Buy
50-DMA  

1259.79

Buy
100-DMA   1244.13 Buy
200-DMA   1240.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.109 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   6.899 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$17.44/oz and intraday low of US$17.16/oz. Silver settled by down by 1.4908% at US$17.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.49), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-15.65 targeting 17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.70-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 17.20-16.90-16.30 and 16.10-15.65.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90
S2     16.60
S3     16.10-15.65

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.50-18.05
R2     18.30
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.771 Buy
20-DMA   17.21 Buy
50-DMA   17.34 Sell
100-DMA   17.49 Sell
200-DMA   17.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.945 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0724 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$46.16/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.24/bbl and settled up by 0.459% at US$45.89/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.76 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.00-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.20-44.50 and 43.90-43.00. Buy above 45.22-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.00-46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22-44.45
S2     43.90
S3     43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.00
R2     46.95-47.50
R3     48.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.189 Sell
20-DMA   48.64 Sell
50-DMA   49.30 Sell
100-DMA   50.54 Sell
200-DMA   49.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.682 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.877 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1164/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1236/EUR and settled the day down by 0.169% at US$1.1194/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1250-1.1425 targeting 1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.0970 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1200-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1250-1.1290-1.1365 and 1.1425-1.1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200
S2     1.1100-1.1055
S3     1.0970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1250
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.189 Buy
20-DMA   1.1192 Buy
50-DMA   1.0945 Buy
100-DMA   1.0809 Buy
200-DMA   1.0823 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.508 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0082 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2634/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2955/GBP and settled the day down by 1.613% at US$1.12746/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2720-1.2950 with targets at 1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2670-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2720
S2     1.2670-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2980

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.82

Buy
20-DMA   1.2903 Buy
50-DMA   1.2810 Buy
100-DMA   1.2619 Buy
200-DMA   1.2573 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.050 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.75/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.80/USD and settled the day up by 0.345% at JPY110.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.00.00-108.00 with targets of 110.40-111.00-111.40 and 112.00-112.60 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.40-112.00 with risk above 110.200 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.55-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00
S2     109.50-109.00
S3     108.55

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.40
R2     111.10
R3     111.60-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.706 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Sell
50-DMA   111.05 Buy
100-DMA   112.03 Sell
200-DMA   110.50 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.838 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.473 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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