AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares turned mixed on Wednesday as investors everywhere awaited clarity on the Federal Reserve's future path for U.S. policy after a likely rate rise later in the day. Economic data out of China showed retail sales and industrial output topped forecasts in May, but a miss in urban investment reinforced views the world's second-largest economy will soon start to lose some momentum as lending costs rise and the property market cools. The U.S. central bank is scheduled to release its decision at 1800 GMT on Wednesday with a news conference to follow from Chair Janet Yellen. Investors fully expect a rate rise largely because Fed officials have told them to, so attention will rather be on the outlook for policy and particularly when the central bank might begin to wind down its massive portfolio of U.S. debt. It had spiked as high as 2.52 percent last November in the wake of President Donald Trump's surprise election victory. This leaves the market vulnerable to any hawkish spin from the Fed, which would likely slug Treasury prices while lifting the embattled U.S. dollar. The currency could do with the help having taken a fresh knock on Tuesday, when the head of Canada's central bank put his own hawkish spin on the outlook for rates there. It also lost ground to sterling GBP= after UK inflation data surprised on the high side and amid reports Britain's ruling Conservative Party was likely to sign a deal on Wednesday to form a minority government.
  • past an expected U.S. rate hike later in the day for clues on Federal Reserve policy for the rest of the year. The Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. eastern time (1800 GMT) on Wednesday at the end of a two-day policy meeting, followed by a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed may also provide more clues on how it plans to reduce its holdings of more than $4 trillion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities Economists polled by Reuters overwhelmingly see the U.S. central bank hiking its benchmark rate to a target range of 1.00 to 1.25 percent this week, though expectations for further rate increases are fading. What emerges from the Fed meeting "is certainly going to chart the course for a lot, including the strength of the dollar," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana, who spoke from Minneapolis. Traders and analysts appear divided over whether China's central bank will once again follow the Fed and raise its short-term rates, as it did in March. The Bank of Japan, which is also meeting this week, is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
  • Gold gained in Asia on Wednesday in cautious trade as investors awaited the latest Fed rate decision and forward-looking guidance on plans to trim its massive balance sheet. China reported industrial production for May rose a faster than expected 6.5% on year, and retail sales also gained a clip quicker at 10.7%, while fixed-asset investment came in a less than seen 8.6%. Overnight, gold prices traded at break-even on Tuesday, after expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates on Wednesday weighed on gold, as the precious metal struggled to capitalise on a slump in the dollar. In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds. Investors are expected to closely monitor Fed chair Janet Yellen’s press conference for any clues on future monetary policy, and an update on the Federal Reserve’s plan to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
  • Oil prices fell around 1 percent on Wednesday after data showed a build in U.S. crude stocks and OPEC reported a rise in its production despite its pledge to cut back on output. Crude prices have fall by more than 10 percent since late May, pulled down by an supply glut that persists despite a move led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production by almost 1.8 million bpd until the end of the first quarter of 2018. OPEC's own compliance with the cuts has been questioned, and the producer group said in a report this week that its output rose by 336,000 bpd in May to 32.14 million bpd. Adding to the supply surplus is rising U.S. production from shale drillers that has pushed U.S. output up by 10 percent over the last year to 9.3 million bpd, not far below levels by top exporter Saudi Arabia. Data from the API showed on Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels in the week to June 9 to 511.4 million, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. With supplies plentiful, strong demand is needed to support the market, but there are signs of a slowdown. More specifically for oil, there are signs of a slowdown in China, long the key component of fuel demand growth, as its economy slows. The nation's refiners have produced too much fuel for it to consume, forcing a drop-off in activity.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,278 1,286 1,300-1,307
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.50-18.05 18.30
Crude Oil 46.00 46.95-47.50 48.40
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1290-1.1370 1.1425
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2980
USD/JPY 110.40 111.10 111.60-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254-1,246 1,241
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 45.22-44.45 43.90 43.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1100-1.1055 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2720 1.2670-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 110.00 109.50-109.00 108.55

Intra-Day Strategy (14th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1268.83/oz and intraday low of US$1259.17/oz. Gold down by 1.141% at US$1266.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1241) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1307 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1246-1240. Buy above 1260-1240 with risk below 1240, targeting 1270-1278-186 and 1294-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254-1,246
S3     1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,278
R2     1,286
R3     1,300-1,307

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.923

Buy
20-DMA   1267.06 Buy
50-DMA  

1260.31

Buy
100-DMA   1245.22 Buy
200-DMA   1240.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.109 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   5.480 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.95/oz and intraday low of US$16.70/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.826% at US$16.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.49), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.50-18.05
R3     18.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.173 Buy
20-DMA   17.20 Buy
50-DMA   17.28 Sell
100-DMA   17.48 Sell
200-DMA   17.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.896 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0104 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$46.55/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.53/bbl and settled down by 0.152% at US$45.92/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.76 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.00-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.20-44.50 and 43.90-43.00. Buy above 45.22-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.00-46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22-44.45
S2     43.90
S3     43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.00
R2     46.95-47.50
R3     48.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.523 Sell
20-DMA   48.35 Sell
50-DMA   49.12 Sell
100-DMA   50.41 Sell
200-DMA   49.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.682 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.926 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1184/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1224/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0714% at US$1.1209/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1250-1.1425 targeting 1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.0970 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1200-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1250-1.1290-1.1365 and 1.1425-1.1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200
S2     1.1100-1.1055
S3     1.0970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1250
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.189 Buy
20-DMA   1.1192 Buy
50-DMA   1.0945 Buy
100-DMA   1.0809 Buy
200-DMA   1.0823 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.508 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0082 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2634/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2955/GBP and settled the day down by 1.613% at US$1.12746/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2720-1.2950 with targets at 1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2670-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2720
S2     1.2670-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2980

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.249

Buy
20-DMA   1.2880 Buy
50-DMA   1.2819 Buy
100-DMA   1.2622 Buy
200-DMA   1.2566 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.402 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.26/USD and settled the day up by 0.109% at JPY110.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.00.00-108.00 with targets of 110.40-111.00-111.40 and 112.00-112.60 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.40-112.00 with risk above 110.200 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.55-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00
S2     109.50-109.00
S3     108.55

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.40
R2     111.10
R3     111.60-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.706 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Sell
50-DMA   111.05 Buy
100-DMA   112.03 Sell
200-DMA   110.50 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.838 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.473 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING