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Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. stock futures and Asian shares slid on Thursday, hit by soft U.S. economic data, a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve and a media report that U.S. President Donald Trump is being investigated by a special counsel for possible obstruction of justice. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected on Wednesday and gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2-trillion portfolio of bonds. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the process could start "relatively soon", while projections of the Fed board members also showed they expect one more rate hike by the end of year. Yet the Fed's decision and confidence in continued U.S. economic growth was over-shadowed by surprisingly weak data released earlier in the day. Consumer prices unexpectedly fell on month in May and the annual increase in core CPI slipped to 1.7 percent, the smallest rise since May 2015, after advancing 1.9 percent in April. Investors' inflation expectations gauged by the spread between the 10-year inflation-linked bonds and conventional bonds fell to 1.726%, completely wiping out its rise since the U.S. presidential election. Retail sales fell 0.3% last month - the largest fall since January 2016 and way below economists' expectations for a 0.1 percent gain - amid declining purchases of motor vehicles and discretionary spending. Risk sentiment was also hit by fear of more U.S. political turmoil after the Washington Post reported that Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice. Mueller is investigating alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign. Trump's legal team denounced the report. The news came just after the No. 3 Republican in the House of Representatives, Steve Scalise, was shot by a gunman angry with Trump and other Republicans. Scalise was listed in critical condition. China's central bank left interest rates for open market operations unchanged on Thursday, unlike in March when it lifted short-term interest rates in what economists said was a bid to stave off capital outflows and further depreciation pressure on the yuan. Analysts had been split on whether China would follow the Fed again, noting the yuan is in much better shape than a few months ago after authorities' recent moves to flush out depreciation bets against the currency.
  • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months and said it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market. In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a recent run of mixed economic data. The U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as largely transitory. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. It expects to begin the normalization of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. The plan, which would feature halting reinvestments of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities, did not specify the overall size of the reduction They forecast U.S. economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2017, an increase from the previous projection in March. Inflation was expected to be at 1.7 percent by the end of this year, down from the 1.9 percent previously forecast. The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation has retreated to 1.5 percent, from 1.8 percent earlier this year, and has run below the central bank's 2 percent target for more than five years. The Fed's estimates for the unemployment rate by the end of this year moved down to 4.3 percent, the current level, and to 4.2 percent in 2018, indicating the Fed believes the labor market will continue to tighten.
  • Oil prices wallowed near their lowest levels in seven months early on Thursday, hurt by high global inventories and doubts over OPEC's ability to implement production cuts. Both benchmarks are hovering near levels last reached in late November last year when production cuts led by the OPEC were first announced in an effort to prop up prices. OPEC's pledge was to cut some 1.2 million bpd, while other producers including Russia would bring the total reduction to almost 1.8 million bpd. However, some OPEC members including Nigeria and Libya have been exempt from cutting, and their rising output undermines efforts led by Saudi Arabia. A weekly report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude inventories fell less than expected while gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly swelled in week ended May 2. Inventories of U.S. crude rose by roughly 1.66m barrels in the week ended June 2, far below expectations of draw of around 2.7m barrels. Gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by roughly 2m barrels against expectations for a decline of 457,000 barrels while distillate stockpiles dipped by 328,000 barrels, compared to expectations of a 686,000 rise.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,278 1,286 1,300-1,307
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.50-18.05 18.30
Crude Oil 45.22 46.00 46.95-47.50
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1290-1.1370 1.1425
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2980
USD/JPY 110.00-110.40 111.10 111.60-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254-1,246 1,241
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 44.45-43.90 43.00 45.22
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1100-1.1055 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2720 1.2670-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 109.50-109.00 108.55 108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (15th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1280.56/oz and intraday low of US$1257.02/oz. Gold down by 0.723% at US$1260.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1241) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1307 and targeting 1260-1254 and 1246-1240. Buy above 1260-1240 with risk below 1240, targeting 1270-1278-186 and 1294-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254-1,246
S3     1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,278
R2     1,286
R3     1,300-1,307

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.743

Buy
20-DMA   1267.39 Buy
50-DMA  

1260.27

Buy
100-DMA   1245.75 Buy
200-DMA   1239.81 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.746 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   3.909 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$17.05/oz and intraday low of US$16.87/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.826% at US$16.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.49), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.50-18.05
R3     18.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.870 Buy
20-DMA   17.22 Buy
50-DMA   17.25 Sell
100-DMA   17.48 Sell
200-DMA   17.47 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.896 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$46.55/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.53/bbl and settled down by 0.152% at US$45.92/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.20-47.50 with stop loss at 47.50; targeting 44.50-43.90 and 43.00-42.30. Buy above 44.45-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 45.22-46.00 and 46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.45-43.90
S2     43.00
S3     45.22

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.22
R2     46.00
R3     46.95-47.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.399 Sell
20-DMA   48.04 Sell
50-DMA   48.97 Sell
100-DMA   50.31 Sell
200-DMA   49.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.682 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.115 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1192/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1295/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0624% at US$1.1216/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1250-1.1425 targeting 1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1054-1.0970 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1200-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1250-1.1290-1.1365 and 1.1425-1.1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200
S2     1.1100-1.1055
S3     1.0970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1250
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.285 Buy
20-DMA   1.1217 Buy
50-DMA   1.0989 Buy
100-DMA   1.0822 Buy
200-DMA   1.0822 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0059 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2817/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2749/GBP and settled the day down by 0.1560% at US$1.12749/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2720-1.2950 with targets at 1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2670-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2720
S2     1.2670-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2980

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.249

Buy
20-DMA   1.2880 Buy
50-DMA   1.2819 Buy
100-DMA   1.2622 Buy
200-DMA   1.2566 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.402 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.80/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.33/USD and settled the day up by 0.445% at JPY109.56/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.00 with targets of 110.40-111.00-111.40 and 112.00-112.60 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.40-112.00 with risk above 110.200 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.55-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.00
S2     108.55
S3     108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.40
R2     111.10
R3     111.60-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.697 Buy
20-DMA   110.63 Sell
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   111.90 Sell
200-DMA   110.62 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   44.838 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.532 Sell

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