AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks steadied on Friday, taking in stride the resumption of the U.S. technology rout overnight, and European shares look set for a positive start following Thursday's losses. The Japanese yen remained near a two-week low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected even as its U.S. counterpart signaled further tightening As expected, the central bank offered a more upbeat view on private consumption and overseas economies, signaling its confidence that the recovery was gaining momentum. Data overnight showing the number of Americans filing for unemployment fell more than expected last week, and better-than-expected business conditions in June bolstered the case for Federal Reserve tightening this year. On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates as widely expected, and also released some preliminary details of its plan to begin paring its $4 trillion-plus debt holdings. But it fell back to close flat, as monetary policy uncertainty added to existing concerns about Britain's political outlook after Prime Minister Theresa May failed to win a parliamentary majority in last week's election.
  • The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady on Friday and upgraded its assessment of private consumption and overseas growth, signaling its confidence that an export-driven economic recovery was broadening and gaining momentum. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is likely to reassure markets the BOJ will still lag well behind the Federal Reserve in dialing back its massive stimulus program, with inflation far from reaching the BOJ's 2 percent target, say sources familiar with its thinking. Friday's statement took a more upbeat view than that of the previous meeting in April, when the BOJ said consumption was "resilient". The BOJ meeting followed in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate review on Wednesday, when it raised interest rates for the second time in three months and outlined a plan to reduce its massive balance sheet. Private consumption has been a soft spot in Japan's otherwise strengthening economy, with its weakness blamed for keeping inflation subdued by discouraging companies from raising prices. The BOJ maintained its overall assessment of Japan's economy to say it was turning toward a moderate expansion. Kuroda is also expected to be grilled at the briefing on the inconsistency between the BOJ's 80-trillion-yen bond-buying pledge and a recent slowdown in actual bond purchases.
  • Gold rose slightly in Asia on Friday with sentiment subdued following the Fed rate hike and wavering fortunes for the dollar with investors focused on whether the Trump Administration can get back on track with its tax cut and stimulus policies in the face of a tense political debate over Russian interference in the 2016 election. Overnight, gold prices tumbled to three week lows on Thursday, pressured by a firmer dollar as risk-on sentiment resumed amid upbeat U.S. economic data and expectations of an additional rate hike later this year. A raft of better than expected economic reports tapered fears the US economy was set for a slowdown in the second quarter, stoking expectations of an additional rate hike, after the Federal Reserve maintained its outlook of three total rate hikes on Wednesday. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 237,000 in the week ended June 4, beating forecasts of a 3,000 decline. On the manufacturing front, investors cheered a pair of upbeat economic reports on manufacturing activity in the states of New York and Philadelphia. The Philly Fed said its index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased to 27.6 in June from 38.8 in May. Analysts had expected a reading of 24.
  • Oil prices were not far off six-month lows, held down by an ongoing supply overhang that persists despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and prop up crude markets. But prices for both benchmarks are still down by around 13 percent since late May, when producers led by the OPEC extended a pledge to cut production by 1.8 million (bpd) by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018. Rising U.S. oil output, particularly from shale drillers, is contributing to the ineffectiveness of the OPEC-led cuts. U.S. investment bank Jefferies said the low prices were due to "a relentless build in the U.S. rig count, weekly builds in U.S. inventories, rising production in Nigeria and Libya, and weak compliance by key OPEC members Iraq and the UAE." High exports and production from Russia is also contributing to the ongoing glut. Top producer Russia, not an OPEC member but participating in the deal, is expected to export 61.2 mn tonnes of oil via pipelines in the third quarter (around 5 million bpd), against 60.5 mn tonnes in the second quarter, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations. Add in Russia's tanker shipments and its total exports are likely more than 9 million bpd. In the United States, which is not participating in any deal to hold back production, oil output has risen more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.3 million bpd, and the EIA expects that figure to rise above 10 million bpd in 2018. In a sign of the continuing supply overhang, traders are again hiring oil tankers to store unsold crude while they wait for higher prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,270 1,278 1,286-1,300
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.50-18.05 18.30
Crude Oil 45.22 46.00 46.95-47.50
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1290-1.1370 1.1425
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2980
USD/JPY 110.00-110.40 111.10 111.60-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,253-1,246 1,241 1,231
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 44.45-43.90 43.00 42.30
EURO/USD 1.1150 1.1100-1.1055 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2720 1.2670-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 109.50-109.00 108.55 108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (16th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1254.99/oz and intraday low of US$1251.69/oz. Gold up by 0.522% at US$1253.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1307 keeping stop loss closing above 1307 and targeting 1252-1246 and 1240-1231. Buy above 1260-1240 with risk below 1240, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,253-1,246
S2     1,241
S3     1,231
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,270
R2     1,278
R3     1,286-1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.677

Buy
20-DMA   1266.94 Buy
50-DMA  

1260.17

Buy
100-DMA   1246.33 Buy
200-DMA   1239.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   9.746 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.050 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Thursday on made its intraday high of US$17.05/oz and intraday low of US$16.64/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.889% at US$16.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.49), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.50-18.05
R3     18.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.870 Buy
20-DMA   17.22 Buy
50-DMA   17.25 Sell
100-DMA   17.48 Sell
200-DMA   17.47 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.896 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$44.80/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.21/bbl and settled down by 0.985% at US$44.23/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.20-47.50 with stop loss at 47.50; targeting 44.50-43.90 and 43.00-42.30. Buy above 44.45-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 45.22-46.00 and 46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.45-43.90
S2     43.00
S3     42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.22
R2     46.00
R3     46.95-47.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.212 Sell
20-DMA   47.70 Sell
50-DMA   48.82 Sell
100-DMA   50.21 Sell
200-DMA   49.76 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.682 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.214 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1131/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1227/EUR and settled the day down by 0.641% at US$1.1144/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1425 targeting 1.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1150-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365-1.1425.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1150
S2     1.1100-1.1055
S3     1.0970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.476 Buy
20-DMA   1.1211 Buy
50-DMA   1.0999 Buy
100-DMA   1.0832 Buy
200-DMA   1.0821 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1268/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2794/GBP and settled the day down by 0.047% at US$1.12756/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2790-1.2950 with targets at 1.2720-1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2720-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2720
S2     1.2670-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2980

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.836

Buy
20-DMA   1.2858 Buy
50-DMA   1.2834 Buy
100-DMA   1.2626 Buy
200-DMA   1.2561 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.781 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.26/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day up by 0.445% at JPY110.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.00 with targets of 110.40-111.00-111.40 and 112.00-112.60 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.40-112.00 with risk above 110.200 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.55-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.00
S2     108.55
S3     108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.40
R2     111.10
R3     111.60-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.697 Buy
20-DMA   110.63 Sell
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   111.90 Sell
200-DMA   110.62 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   44.838 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.532 Sell

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