AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Monday, shaking off Wall Street's subdued performance on Friday, and sterling was steady after a van rammed into worshippers leaving a London mosque, killing at least one person, as markets braced for the start of Brexit talks. Police said one man had been pronounced dead and 10 people were injured, in what Britain's largest Muslim organization said was a deliberate act of Islamophobia. The van driver has been arrested. British Prime Minister Theresa May said police confirmed the incident was being treated as a potential terrorist attack. Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels on Monday, which will be followed by a Brussels summit on Thursday and Friday where May will encounter - but not negotiate with - fellow European Union leaders. Davis's agreement to Monday's agenda led some EU officials to believe that May's government may at last be coming around to Brussels' view of how negotiations should be run for Britain's exit from the EU. May's own immediate political survival is in doubt after she lost her parliamentary majority in an election. Projections showing a strong parliamentary majority for French President Emmanuel Macron following Sunday's vote, giving him a powerful mandate to push through pro-business reforms, lent support to the euro. Sterling held steady on Monday ahead of the start of Brexit negotiations, with investors also awaiting comments from a top Federal Reserve official to see whether the U.S. dollar's recent rise can be sustained. It is expected to remain vulnerable to bouts of volatility in coming months as negotiations proceed on Britain's divorce from European Union. Investors are focusing on the UK government's stance in the talks, after the ruling Conservative party's setback in this month's election deepened uncertainty over both Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans and her political future.
  • The dollar was little changed on Monday. On Friday, it fell after U.S. homebuilding dropped for a third month in May to the lowest in eight months and a barometer of U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in early June, prompting concerns about the Federal Reserve's plans to stick with its monetary policy tightening. The market is awaiting comments by New York Fed President William Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, when he speaks at a business roundtable in New York state. The greenback fared better against the Japanese yen, which remained weak after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged last week. The yen didn't respond to data on Monday showing Japanese exports rose at their fastest pace in May since January 2015.
  • Gold prices remained unchanged on Friday, as safe haven demand remained subdued, despite a pair of disappointing U.S. economic reports raising concerns about the outlook of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter U.S. homebuilding fell for a third straight month in May to the lowest level in eight months, suggesting that subdued housing activity could dent economic growth in the second quarter. Housing starts dropped 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units, the Commerce Department said on Friday, well below forecasts of a 4.1% increase. In a separate report the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment gauged fell to 94.5 in early June from 91.1 in May. Analysts had expected a reading of 97.1. The subdued economic reports weighed on the dollar as it dropped to session lows against its peers. Gold struggled, however, to capitalize on the slump in the dollar as investor sentiment on the precious metal remained negative, after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled that an additional rate hike may be appropriate.
  • Oil prices dipped on Monday, weighed down by a continuing expansion in U.S. drilling that has helped to maintain high global supplies despite an OPEC-led initiative to cut production to tighten the market. Signs of faltering demand have also prompted weakening sentiment, dropping prices to levels comparable to when the output cuts were first announced late last year. Prices for both benchmarks are down by around 14 percent since late May, when producers led by the OPEC extended their pledge to cut production by 1.8 million bpd by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018. Traders said the main factor driving prices lower was a steady rise in U.S. production undermining the OPEC-led effort. U.S. producers have added 431 oil rigs since a trough on May 27, 2016, Goldman said. If the rig count holds at current levels, the bank added, U.S. oil production would increase by 770,000 bpd between the fourth quarter of last year and the same quarter this year in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara shale oil fields. Supplies from OPEC and other countries participating in the output cuts, including top producer Russia, also remain high as some countries have not fully complied with their pledges. There are also indicators that demand growth in Asia, the world's biggest oil-consuming region, is stalling. Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports fell 13.5 percent in May from the same month a year earlier, to 2.83 million bpd, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,270 1,278-1,286
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.50-18.05 18.30
Crude Oil 45.22 46.00 46.95-47.50
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1290-1.1370 1.1425
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2980
USD/JPY 111.10 111.60-112.00 113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,241 1,231 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.60 16.10-15.65 15.30
Crude Oil 44.45-43.90 43.00 42.30
EURO/USD 1.1150 1.1100-1.1055 1.0970
GBP/USD 1.2720 1.2670-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 110.40-110.00 109.50 109.00-108.55

Intra-Day Strategy (19th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1257.00/oz and intraday low of US$1251.69/oz. Gold up by 0.003% at US$1253.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1260-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,241
S2     1,231
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,278-1,286

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.401

Buy
20-DMA   1266.51 Buy
50-DMA  

1260.11

Buy
100-DMA   1246.93 Buy
200-DMA   1238.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.746 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.856 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.81/oz and intraday low of US$16.63/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.299% at US$16.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.49), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60
S2     16.10-15.65
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.50-18.05
R3     18.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.870 Buy
20-DMA   17.22 Buy
50-DMA   17.25 Sell
100-DMA   17.48 Sell
200-DMA   17.47 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.896 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$44.92/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.22/bbl and settled up by 0.994% at US$44.68/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.20-47.50 with stop loss at 47.50; targeting 44.50-43.90 and 43.00-42.30. Buy above 44.45-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 45.22-46.00 and 46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.45-43.90
S2     43.00
S3     42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.22
R2     46.00
R3     46.95-47.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.957 Sell
20-DMA   47.39 Sell
50-DMA   48.67 Sell
100-DMA   50.13 Sell
200-DMA   49.76 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.682 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.226 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1137/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1200/EUR and settled the day up by 0.466% at US$1.1196/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1425 targeting 1.1150-1.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1150-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365-1.1425.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1150
S2     1.1100-1.1055
S3     1.0970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1211 Buy
50-DMA   1.1012 Buy
100-DMA   1.0838 Buy
200-DMA   1.0821 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1274/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2805/GBP and settled the day up by 0.188% at US$1.12780/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2790-1.2950 with targets at 1.2720-1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2720-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2720
S2     1.2670-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2980

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.415

Buy
20-DMA   1.2911 Buy
50-DMA   1.2804 Buy
100-DMA   1.2617 Buy
200-DMA   1.2576 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.304 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.63/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.41/USD and settled the day down by 0.018% at JPY110.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.40-108.55 with targets of 111.10-111.60 and 112.00-112.60 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 111.10-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 110.40-110.00 and 109.50-109.00- 108.55.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.40-110.00
S2     109.50
S3     109.00-108.55

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.10
R2     111.60-112.00
R3     113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.942 Buy
20-DMA   110.66 Sell
50-DMA   111.01 Buy
100-DMA   111.85 Sell
200-DMA   110.71 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   87.838 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.282 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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