Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar hit a three-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, after an influential Federal Reserve official said U.S. inflation would pick up as wages improved, bolstering bets on the Fed continuing to raise interest rates. The greenback got a further lift on Tuesday when Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said now was not the time to raise British interest rates, sending sterling down more than half a percent against the U.S. currency. New York Fed President William Dudley said on Monday that tightening in the labor market should help drive up inflation, reinforcing the message that a recent patch of weak data is unlikely to derail plans to keep raising interest rates. Separately, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday it may be worthwhile for the U.S. central bank to wait until year-end to decide whether to raise interest rates again. The greenback has edged higher since the Fed on June 14 raised interest rates for a second time in 2017 and announced it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities later this year, while indicating that a recent softening in inflation was seen as transitory. The dollar may see further gains against the yen, especially after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week indicated the BOJ would be in no hurry to dial back its massive stimulus program, said Tan Teck Leng, forex analyst for UBS Wealth Management in Singapore.
• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Tuesday warned that while the U.S. and other countries have taken steps to make their housing finance systems stronger, more needs to be done to prevent a future crisis. Fischer did not address the outlook for U.S. monetary policy or the economy in remarks prepared for delivery to the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam. Instead he focused on preventing financial instability, arguing that since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in the United States, "the core of the financial system is much stronger, the worst lending practices have been curtailed, much progress has been made in processes to reduce unnecessary foreclosures," and a 2008 law helped clarify the status of government support for housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But to prevent a new crisis, he said, governments ought to do more, including stress tests for banks on their resilience should house prices decline dramatically, and making it easier to avoid foreclosures, which hurt both lenders and borrowers.
• Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, but gains were limited as the market weighed ongoing efforts by major producers to cut output and reduce a global glut against a relentless increase in U.S. drilling activity. Oil prices lost around 1% on Monday as concerns over a steady increase in U.S. production added to fears over a glut in the market. U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 22nd week in a row, according to data from energy services company Baker Hughes, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The increase in U.S. drilling activity and shale production has mostly offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market. Last month, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. Investors looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products. Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (2030GMT) later on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday, amid forecasts for an oil-stock drop of around 2.2 million barrels. Natural gas futures for July delivery ticked up 0.7 cents to $2.901 per million British thermal units. OPEC supplies jumped in May as output recovered in Libya and Nigeria, two countries exempt from the production cut agreement. Libya's oil production has risen more than 50,000 bpd after the state oil company settled a dispute with Germany's Wintershall, a Libyan source told Reuters. Analysts said rising U.S. crude production has fed the global glut. Data on Friday showed a record 22nd consecutive week of increases in U.S. oil rig numbers. Still, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih remained confident OPEC's cuts were working. The oil market is heading in the right direction but still needs time to rebalance, al-Falih told the London-based newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.

Gold – XAU

Gold closed up on Monday and made its intraday high of 1255.52/oz and intraday low of US$1242.92/oz. Gold down by 0.845% at US$1243.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

Silver - XAG

Silver closed down Monday on made its intraday high of US$16.68/oz and intraday low of US$16.46/oz. Silver settled by down by 1.140% at US$16.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.10-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$45.04/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.00/bbl and settled down by 1.254% at US$44.09/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.20-47.50 with stop loss at 47.50; targeting 44.50-43.90 and 43.00-42.30. Buy above 44.45-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 45.22-46.00 and 46.95-47.50 and 48.40-49.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1142/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1212/EUR and settled the day down by 0.579% at US$1.1147/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1425 targeting 1.1150-1.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1425. Buy above 1.1150-1.0970 with risk below 1.0970 targeting 1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365-1.1425.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2722/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2813/GBP and settled the day down by 0.203% at US$1.12736/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2720-1.2950 with targets at 1.2670-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2720-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2720-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900-1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.59/USD and settled the day up by 0.577% at JPY111.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.10-109.50 with targets of 111.60-112.30-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 111.60-113.95 with risk above 113.95 targeting 111.10-110.40 and 110.00-109.50-109.00.