AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks advanced on Thursday, but oil futures hovered near a 10-month low hit overnight on concerns over a supply glut and falling demand. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer suggested they are concerned less about raising rates too fast or too high than about keeping them too low for too long. The dollar eased versus the yen on Thursday as a recent rally tied to bets on another U.S. interest rate hike this year lost steam, while the New Zealand dollar rose after its central bank stopped short of aggressively trying to talk down the currency. Last week, the Federal Reserve, as expected, raised key borrowing costs by a quarter point to 1.00-1.25 percent, while Fed Chair Janet Yellen downplayed recent signs of inflation softening. Sterling held steady at $1.2670, after having risen 0.3 percent on Wednesday when the Bank of England's chief economist, Andy Haldane, said he expected to back a British rate increase this year.
  • Gold prices rose in Asia on Thursday with a weaker dollar and revised views on the Fed hiking rates for a third time this year offered support. Overnight, gold prices traded above breakeven on Wednesday, as the dollar faded despite data showing that U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose in May while growing expectations for a rate hike later this year limited upside in the precious metal. The dollar failed to capitalize on upbeat housing data, as the National Association of Realtors said strong demand and inexpensive mortgages were driving up prices at an unsustainable rate, as sales of existing homes rose 1.1% in May to an annual rate of 5.62 million. Analysts had forecast U.S. existing home sales to decline by 0.5%. On Tuesday, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said low interest rates do pose financial stability concerns that central bankers and the private sector must take seriously while Bill Dudley, head of the New York Federal Reserve, a day earlier, downplayed the recent slowdown in inflation, warning that halting rate increases at this point would be dangerous. In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds. Weakness in the dollar against a basket of its peers, bolstered commodities across the board.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday after U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles fell, but worries over whether OPEC-led output cuts would be able to rein in a three-year glut continued to drag. The market largely shrugged off comments overnight from Iran's oil minister that members of the OPEC are considering deeper cuts in production. Since peaking in late February, crude has dropped around 20 percent, with only brief rallies, completely erasing gains at the end of the year in the wake of the initial OPEC-led production cut. OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day from January for six months, subsequently extended for a further nine months. With production rising in Nigeria and Libya, countries exempt from the deal, and output surging in the United States, which was not part of the agreement, many bulls appear to have thrown in the towel. A bigger-than-expected cut in U.S. crude stockpiles reported overnight is barely shifting the dial. Crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week to June 16, surpassing analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels, as imports rose marginally by 56,000 barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks fell 578,000 barrels, compared with analyst expectations for a seasonally unusual 443,000-barrel gain, which had been seen as bearish in the market. Stocks of the motor fuel had also risen unexpectedly by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week, despite the start of the summer driving season. Oil prices lost more than 2% on Wednesday, plunging deeper into bear market territory, after U.S. government data revealed a rise in domestic crude production, which more than offset a drop in oil and gasoline stockpiles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly supply report published Wednesday showed that domestic output climbed by 20,000 barrels to 9.35 million barrels a day, almost 8% higher than the same period last year. Last month, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers that are exempt from the deal, such as Libya and Nigeria and a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1254-1,260 1,270 1,278-1,286
Silver-XAG 16.80 17.00-17.50 18.05
Crude Oil 42.90 44.45-45.22 46.00
EURO/USD 1.1150 1.1200 1.1290-1.1370
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900
USD/JPY 111.60-112.30 113.00 113.95

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,241 1,231 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 42.30-41.50 40.90 40.00
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1100 1.0970 1.0940
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2615 1.2570 .2500
USD/JPY 111.04 110.40-110.00 109.50

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1247.68/oz and intraday low of US$1241.17/oz. Gold up by 0.305% at US$1246.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,241
S2     1,231
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1254-1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,278-1,286

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.124

Buy
20-DMA   1265.03 Buy
50-DMA  

1258.52

Buy
100-DMA   1248.13 Buy
200-DMA   1237.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.404 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.176 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$16.51/oz and intraday low of US$16.32/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.121% at US$16.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80
R2     17.00-17.50
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.245 Buy
20-DMA   17.08 Buy
50-DMA   17.08 Sell
100-DMA   17.45 Sell
200-DMA   17.40 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.470 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.165 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$44.17/bl and made an intraday low of US$42.04/bbl and settled down by 2.00% at US$42.49/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$44.17/bl and made an intraday low of US$42.04/bbl and settled down by 2.00% at US$42.49/bbl on session close.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 42.90-46.00 with stop loss at 46.00; targeting 42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.30-40.00 with risk daily closing below 40.00 and targeting 42.90-44.45 and 45.22-46.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.30-41.50
S2     40.90
S3     40.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     42.90
R2     44.45-45.22
R3     46.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.410 Sell
20-DMA   46. 29 Sell
50-DMA   48.06 Sell
100-DMA   49.83 Sell
200-DMA   49.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.359 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.559 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1126/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1168/EUR and settled the day down by 0.305% at US$1.1167/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1150-1.1400 targeting 11.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.1100-1.0940 with risk below 1.0940 targeting 1.1150-1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1150-1.1100
S2     1.0970
S3     1.0940

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1290-1.1370

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.269 Buy
20-DMA   1.1202 Buy
50-DMA   1.1031 Buy
100-DMA   1.0844 Buy
200-DMA   1.0820 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.737 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2588/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2709/GBP and settled the day up by 0.324% at US$1.2669/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2700-1.2950 with targets at 1.2650-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2650-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2700-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2615
S2     1.2570
S3     .2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2790-1.2845
R3     1.2900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.8897

Buy
20-DMA   1.2801 Buy
50-DMA   1.2849 Buy
100-DMA   1.2631 Buy
200-DMA   1.2556 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.980 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0036 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.05/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.73/USD and settled the day down by 0.062% at JPY111.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.04
S2     110.40-110.00
S3     109.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60-112.30
R2     113.00
R3     113.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.809 Buy
20-DMA   110.62 Sell
50-DMA   111.14 Buy
100-DMA   111.80 Sell
200-DMA   110.85 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   77.053 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.106 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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