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Daily Market Lookup

  • The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, but remains at levels consistent with a tight labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended June 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless claims rising to 240,000 in the latest week. Following the report, the dollar held at slightly lower levels against a basket of currencies while U.S. Treasuries were little changed. Jobless claims for the prior week were revised upwards by 1,000 to 238,000 from 237,000. The week's tally is the 120th consecutive week that claims have been below 300,000, the threshold associated with a strong labor market. It's the longest stretch that claims have remained below that level since 1970. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it smoothes week-to-week volatility, rose 1,500 to 244,750 last week, the highest since early April. Many economists consider the labor market to be at or near full employment. The unemployment rate in May declined to a 16-year low of 4.3 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point last week for the second time in three months and signaled it remains on track for one more rate hike this year. Fed officials have been buoyed by the tightening jobs market although it has yet to translate into significant pricing pressures. Indeed, some policymakers at the central bank have begun to show increasing concern that a recent pullback in inflation may point to sustained difficulty in returning it to the Fed's 2 percent target. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the claims data. Only claims for Louisiana were estimated. Thursday's claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 8,000 to 1.94 million in the week ended June 10.
  • The dollar was quoted weaker in early Asia on Friday with no major regional data but a close eye on China as borrowing by some major private firms to buy assets overseas comes under the scanner of the country's bank regulator. Reports overnight said China's banking regulator had asked large lender to check credit risk profiles of several companies that had borrowed heavily in greenbacks to buy assets abroad. But details were sparse and there was no immediate indications on the extent of exposure under the scanner.
  • Gold found some safe-have demand from China as borrowing by some major private firms to buy assets overseas comes under the scanner of the country's bank regulator. Reports overnight said China's banking regulator had asked large lender to check credit risk profiles of several companies that had borrowed heavily in greenbacks to buy assets abroad. But details were sparse and there was no immediate indications on the extent of exposure under the scanner. Overnight, gold prices remained on track to end higher for a second-straight session, as subdued weekly initial jobless claims data undershot expectations, helping the precious metal shrug off expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates later this year.
  • Oil rose on Thursday, a day after hitting 10-month lows, but market sentiment remained negative because the global crude glut has persisted despite OPEC-led output cuts. Crude has dropped around 20 percent since late February, erasing gains after OPEC and other countries agreed to cut crude output 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first six months of 2017. Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers extended the output cut deal for nine months. But the global crude glut has persisted, with output rising in Libya and Nigeria, OPEC members exempt from the cuts. The price slide has tested OPEC's pledge to do "whatever it takes" to support oil prices. In the United States, heavy oversupply in gasoline stocks has caused demand on the Colonial pipeline to hit a six-year low. Crude output is still increasing in the United States, where some shale producers can profit even if oil prices drop below $40 a barrel. Oil stocks in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub hit 64.2 million barrels in the week to June 16, the highest in a year, according to data from industry monitor Genscape. Iraq Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said oil prices should start recovering by the end of July, to reach $54 to $56 a barrel by the end of the year. Tropical depression Cindy disrupted some operations in the Gulf of Mexico, home to about 17 percent of U.S. crude and 5 percent of dry natural gas output, supporting markets modestly. However, the storm is on the wane, even though heavy rains still threaten several U.S. Gulf states.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1254-1,260 1,270 1,278-1,286
Silver-XAG 16.80 17.00-17.50 18.05
Crude Oil 42.90 44.45-45.22 46.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1290-1.1370 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900
USD/JPY 111.60-112.30 113.00 113.95

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,231 1,231 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 42.30-41.50 40.90 40.00
EURO/USD 1.1140-1.1100 1.0970 1.0940
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2615 1.2570 1.2500
USD/JPY 111.04 110.40-110.00 109.50

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1254.64/oz and intraday low of US$1241.17/oz. Gold up by 0.422% at US$1250.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,231
S2     1,231
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1254-1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,278-1,286

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.124

Buy
20-DMA   1265.03 Buy
50-DMA  

1258.52

Buy
100-DMA   1248.13 Buy
200-DMA   1237.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.404 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.176 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Thursday on made its intraday high of US$16.66/oz and intraday low of US$16.41/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.730% at US$16.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80
R2     17.00-17.50
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.344 Buy
20-DMA   17.03 Buy
50-DMA   17.04 Sell
100-DMA   17.44 Sell
200-DMA   17.38 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.470 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.176 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$43.31/bl and made an intraday low of US$42.25/bbl and settled up by 0.540% at US$42.76/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 42.90-46.00 with stop loss at 46.00; targeting 42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.30-40.00 with risk daily closing below 40.00 and targeting 42.90-44.45 and 45.22-46.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.30-41.50
S2     40.90
S3     40.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     42.90
R2     44.45-45.22
R3     46.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.410 Sell
20-DMA   46.29 Sell
50-DMA   48.06 Sell
100-DMA   49.83 Sell
200-DMA   49.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.359 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.559 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1138/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1177/EUR and settled the day down by 0.305% at US$1.1151/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1420 targeting 1.1150-1.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.1100-1.0940 with risk below 1.0940 targeting 1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1140-1.1100
S2     1.0970
S3     1.0940

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.369 Buy
20-DMA   1.1199 Buy
50-DMA   1.1053 Buy
100-DMA   1.0852 Buy
200-DMA   1.0820 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.737 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0022 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2653/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2690/GBP and settled the day up by 0.086% at US$1.2680/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2700-1.2950 with targets at 1.2650-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2650-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2700-1.2790 and 1.2845-1.2900

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2615
S2     1.2570
S3     1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2790-1.2845
R3     1.2900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.8897

Buy
20-DMA   1.2801 Buy
50-DMA   1.2849 Buy
100-DMA   1.2631 Buy
200-DMA   1.2556 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.980 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0036 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.035% at JPY111.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.10-109.50 with targets of 111.60-112.30-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 111.60-113.95 with risk above 113.95 targeting 111.10-110.40 and 110.00-109.50-109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.04
S2     110.40-110.00
S3     109.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60-112.30
R2     113.00
R3     113.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.095 Buy
20-DMA   110.64 Sell
50-DMA   111.20 Buy
100-DMA   111.79 Sell
200-DMA   110.89 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   71.053 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.024 Sell

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