AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Japanese stocks edged towards two-year highs on Tuesday as exporters benefited from dollar strength, with investors expecting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to support the Fed's projection for one more interest rate rise this year. Yellen is scheduled to take part in a discussion on global economic issues at London's Royal Academy and a number of other top Fed officials are also due to speak later in the global day. Long-dated Treasury yields dropped to seven-month lows on Monday and the yield curve between five-year notes and 30-year bonds fell to its flattest level since 2007 after the weak U.S. durable goods orders raised concerns about tepid growth and slowing inflation. The euro was steady overnight after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended the central bank's easy monetary policy. There was also a general sense of caution in financial markets, analysts said, noting that commodities like crude oil, which is suffering from a glut, remained shaky though a recent selloff has stalled.
  • The dollar dipped against a basket of the other major currencies on Tuesday as investors awaited comments later in the day by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Traders were waiting to see if Yellen would maintain a positive outlook on the U.S. economy despite a recent batch of weak economic reports, which would support the Fed’s projection for one more rate hike this year and three rate hikes next year. Recent weakness in economic reports have raised questions over the Fed’s plans to tighten monetary policy, with investors now expecting that the pace of its tightening could be much slower than policymakers want. The dollar touched session lows on Monday after data showed that U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May after declining 0.9% in April, pointing to a loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector The euro ended Monday’s session lower after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended its monetary stimulus program and rejected calls to begin scaling back stimulus, arguing that premature tightening would lead to a fresh recession. Sterling was little changed against the dollar, with GBP/USD at 1.2721 as the Bank of England prepared to release its financial stability report later in the day, followed by a press conference with Governor Mark Carney.
  • Gold prices edged higher in European trade on Tuesday, recovering from the prior session's six-week low as market players looked ahead to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for further signs of the central bank's likely rate hike trajectory through the end of the year. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about global economic issues at the British Academy's 2017 President's Lecture in London at 1:00PM ET (1700GMT) on Tuesday. Audience questions are expected. Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy and the timing of when the Fed will next raise interest rates. The Fed chair could be asked about the U.S. central bank's plan to start shrinking its massive balance sheet, which ballooned to $4.5 trillion in wake of the financial crisis. Besides Yellen, a pair of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances on Tuesday that may offer further insight into the debate among policymakers on the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is set to speak about the economic outlook and international trade at the European Economics & Financial Centre, in London, while Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall event in Michigan. The Fed raised interest rates for the second time this year earlier in June and maintained plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. Despite the Fed's message, market players remained doubtful over the central bank's ability to raise rates as much as it would like in the coming months due to softening inflation.
  • Oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as investors covered short positions, although worries over a persistent global supply glut still lingered. The gains mean the market is up slightly so far this week, after spending much of the last month in negative territory. The OPEC and its partners have been trying to reduce a global crude glut with production cuts. OPEC nations and 11 other exporters agreed in May to extend cuts of 1.8 million bpd until March 2018. Despite the cuts, which started in January, markets remain well supplied due to rising output elsewhere. OPEC members Nigeria and Libya are exempt from the cuts and have raised production. OPEC member Iran was also allowed a small increase to recover market share lost under Western sanctions over its nuclear programme. U.S. shale oil output has risen about 10 percent since last year to 9.4 million bpd , with the number of U.S. oil rigs in operation at the highest in more than three years. Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said demand was not growing quickly enough to absorb output, especially since imports in Asia are stuttering. A fuel glut in China, a hangover from demonetisation in India, and an ageing, declining population in Japan are holding back crude oil demand growth in three of the world's top four oil buyers.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1254-1,260 1,270 1,278-1,286
Silver-XAG 16.80 17.00-17.50 18.05
Crude Oil 44.45-45.22 46.10 47.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1290-1.1370 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.2790-1.2845 1.2900 1.2990
USD/JPY 112.30-113.00 113.95 114.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,241 1,231 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 42.90 42.30-41.50 40.90
EURO/USD 1.1140-1.1100 1.0970 1.0940
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2650-1.2615 1.2570
USD/JPY 111.60 111.04 110.40-110.00

Intra-Day Strategy (27th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Monday and made its intraday high of 1257.98/oz and intraday low of US$1235.73/oz. Gold down by 1.007% at US$1244.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,241
S2     1,231
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1254-1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,278-1,286

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.273

Buy
20-DMA   1262.62 Buy
50-DMA  

1256.27

Buy
100-DMA   1248.90 Buy
200-DMA   1236.50 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.615 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.176 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.73/oz and intraday low of US$16.24/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.718% at US$16.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80
R2     17.00-17.50
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.653 Buy
20-DMA   16.96 Buy
50-DMA   16.98 Sell
100-DMA   17.42 Sell
200-DMA   17.36 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.470 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.176 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$43.63/bl and made an intraday low of US$42.60/bbl and settled up by 0.765% at US$43.46/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 44.45-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 42.90-42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.90-40.90 with risk daily closing below 40.90 and targeting 44.45-45.22 and 46.10-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.90
S2     42.30-41.50
S3     40.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     44.45-45.22
R2     46.10
R3     47.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.116 Sell
20-DMA   45.34 Sell
50-DMA   47.50 Sell
100-DMA   49.53 Sell
200-DMA   49.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.750 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.451 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1171/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1219/EUR and settled the day down by 0.160% at US$1.1180/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1200-1.1420 targeting 1.1150-1.1100-1.1054 and 1.0970-1.0900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.1100-1.0940 with risk below 1.0940 targeting 1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1365.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1140-1.1100
S2     1.0970
S3     1.0940

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1290-1.1370
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.200 Buy
20-DMA   1.1202 Buy
50-DMA   1.1074 Buy
100-DMA   1.0862 Buy
200-DMA   1.0820 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.737 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0022 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2705/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2759/GBP and settled the day down by 0.094% at US$1.2721/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2790-1.3000 with targets at 1.2700-1.2650-1.2615 and 1.2570-1.2500, breakage above 1.2950 look for further upside with 1.300 as targets. Buy above 1.2700-1.2500 with stop loss closing below 1.2500 targeting 1.2790-1.2845 and 1.2900-1.2990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2700
S2     1.2650-1.2615
S3     1.2570

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790-1.2845
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.229

Buy
20-DMA   1.2784 Buy
50-DMA   1.2854 Buy
100-DMA   1.2638 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.980 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0042 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.09/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.93/USD and settled the day up by 0.647% at JPY111.84/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.10-109.50 with targets of 111.60-112.30-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 111.60-113.95 with risk above 113.95 targeting 111.10-110.40 and 110.00-109.50-109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60
S2     111.04
S3     110.40-110.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.30-113.00
R2     113.95
R3     114.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.675 Buy
20-DMA   110.71 Sell
50-DMA   111.33 Buy
100-DMA   111.78 Sell
200-DMA   110.99 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   70.860 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.096 Sell

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