AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slumped on Wednesday after Wall Street was knocked hard in the wake of a delay to a U.S. healthcare reform vote, while the euro rallied after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB could trim its stimulus this year. On Tuesday, the benchmark S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day drop in about six weeks and closed at its lowest point since May 31, after the U.S. Senate's move to delay voting on a healthcare reform bill rekindled worries on the timeline for President Donald Trump's business-friendly policies. U.S. stocks accelerated their losses after Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell decided to put off a planned vote on a bill to dismantle the Affordable Care Act until after the Senate's July 4 recess, to get more time to garner sufficient votes for its passage.
  • U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe that there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives, thanks largely to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash. Yellen said it would "not be a good thing" if reforms of the financial services industry since the crisis were unwound, and urged those who had helped manage the fallout at the time to be vocal in preventing such a dilution. U.S. President Donald Trump has said during his election campaign that he would cut banking regulation. The U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month proposed easing up on restrictions big banks now face in their trading operations. Yellen declined to comment when asked about her relationship with Trump but said she had a good working relationship with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. She also reiterated her view that the U.S. central bank would continue to raise interest rates only gradually. "We think it will be appropriate for the attainment of our goals to raise interest rates very gradually to levels that are likely to remain quite low, although there is uncertainty about this, to remain low by historical standards for a long time," she said.
  • The euro rose to one-year highs against the dollar on Wednesday, while the dollar hit multi-month lows against a currency basket as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve officials and developments in Washington. The pair rallied 1.39% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day percentage gain since last June after upbeat comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fueled speculation that the central bank could soon unwind its quantitative easing program. Draghi said factors weighing on inflation in the euro area were mainly temporary, adding that the bank could look through them. He also said the ECB’s stimulus will be gradually withdrawn as the euro zone economy improves. The dollar remained on the back foot after Senate Republican leaders postponed a vote on a sweeping healthcare reform until after Congress’ July 4 recess, in order to get more time to gather support for the bill. The delay rekindled concerns over the Trump administration’s ability to push through tax cuts and fiscal stimulus plans, without first getting the healthcare bill passed. Investors were also digesting remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who reiterated Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would continue to gradually raise interest rates. Markets have been closely watching speeches from Fed officials after the bank stuck to its projection for one more rate hike this year at its meeting earlier this month despite the subdued inflation outlook. Recent weakness in economic data has raised questions over the Fed’s plans to tighten monetary policy, with investors now expecting that the pace of its tightening could be much slower than policymakers want.
  • Oil prices were lower in European trade on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products later in the global day. Crude prices posted sharp gains on Tuesday, with the commodity logging its fourth winning session in a row. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its official weekly oil supplies report at 10:30AM ET. Analysts expect crude oil inventories dropped by around 2.5 million barrels at the end of last week, while gasoline supplies are seen decreasing by 583,000 barrels and distillates are forecast to gain about 453,000 barrels. After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. oil inventories rose by 851,000 barrels in the week ended June 23. The API report also showed a gain of 1.35 million barrels in gasoline stocks, while distillate stocks rose by 678,000 barrels. There are often sharp divergences between the API estimates and the official figures from EIA. Oil prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as concern over rising U.S. shale output offset production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members. U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 23rd week in a row, according to data from energy services company Baker Hughes, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The increase in U.S. drilling activity and shale production has mostly offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market. Last month, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th June 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1254-1,260 1,270 1,278-1,286
Silver-XAG 16.80 17.00-17.50 18.05
Crude Oil 44.45-45.22 46.10 47.00
EURO/USD 1.1370-1.1420 1.1465 1.1540
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2900 1.2990 1.3050
USD/JPY 112.30-113.00 113.95 114.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th June 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,241 1,231 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 42.90 42.30-41.50 40.90
EURO/USD 1.1290 1.1200 1.1140-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2790 1.2700 1.2650-1.2615
USD/JPY 111.60 111.04 110.40-110.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th June 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1252.94/oz and intraday low of US$1241.24/oz. Gold up by 0.234% at US$1246.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1286 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1246-1240 and 1231-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1278-1286-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,241
S2     1,231
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1254-1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,278-1,286

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.273

Buy
20-DMA   1262.62 Buy
50-DMA  

1256.27

Buy
100-DMA   1248.90 Buy
200-DMA   1236.50 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.615 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.176 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.73/oz and intraday low of US$16.51/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.422% at US$16.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 17.00-17.50-18.05 and 18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.00-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.60-16.30 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80
R2     17.00-17.50
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.452 Buy
20-DMA   16.93 Buy
50-DMA   16.95 Sell
100-DMA   17.41 Sell
200-DMA   17.35 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.470 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.147 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$44.43/bl and made an intraday low of US$43.29/bbl and settled up by 0.765% at US$43.70/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 44.45-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 42.90-42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.90-40.90 with risk daily closing below 40.90 and targeting 44.45-45.22 and 46.10-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.90
S2     42.30-41.50
S3     40.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     44.45-45.22
R2     46.10
R3     47.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.479 Sell
20-DMA   45.10 Sell
50-DMA   47.36 Sell
100-DMA   49.46 Sell
200-DMA   49.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.048 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.373 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1178/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1348/EUR and settled the day up by 1.404% at US$1.1337/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1370-1.1540 targeting 1.1290-1.1200-1.1140 and 1.1100-1.1054 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1054. Buy above 1.1290-1.100 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1365-1.1420 and 1.1465-1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1290
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1140-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1370-1.1420
R2     1.1465
R3     1.1540

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.820 Buy
20-DMA   1.1216 Buy
50-DMA   1.1090 Buy
100-DMA   1.0870 Buy
200-DMA   1.0822 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.671 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0045 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2715/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2860/GBP and settled the day up by 0.723% at US$1.2813/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2845-1.3050 with targets at 1.2790-1.2700-1.2650 and 1.2615- 1.2570, breakage above 1.3050 look for further upside with 1.3100 as targets. Buy above 1.2790-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2570 targeting 1.2845-1.2900 and 1.2990-1.3050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790
S2     1.2700
S3     1.2650-1.2615

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2845-1.2900
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.990

Buy
20-DMA   1.2786 Buy
50-DMA   1.2857 Buy
100-DMA   1.2642 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.153 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.45/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.45/USD and settled the day up by 0.447% at JPY112.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.60-109.50 with targets of 112.30-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 111.60-113.95 with risk above 113.95 targeting 111.10-110.40 and 110.00-109.50-109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60
S2     111.04
S3     110.40-110.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.30-113.00
R2     113.95
R3     114.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.397 Buy
20-DMA   110.80 Sell
50-DMA   111.40 Buy
100-DMA   111.79 Sell
200-DMA   110.05 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   80.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.197 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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