AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks hardly budged on Monday on the first day of a new quarter while expectations of credit tightening by the world's major central banks kept global bond markets under pressure. Pan-European Euro first 300 stock index hit a 10-week low on Friday after the European Central Bank and the Bank of England last week signaled their readiness to tighten their monetary policies. Global bond yields have risen sharply following hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last Tuesday, with German bond yields posting their biggest weekly jump since December 2015 last week. The uptick in European bond yields could encourage European investors, who have been pouring their money on higher U.S. yielding bonds, to put their money back in Europe. The rise in U.S. bond yields came even as data showed U.S. inflation cooled in May. The annual rise in core consumer prices excluding food and energy slowed to 1.4 percent, its lowest since December 2015. Signs of stabilizing in China's economy and a recovery in the European economy helped to boost global share prices in the first half of this year. A private sector survey on China's manufacturing showed a surprise recovery in activity, adding to the evidence of steadying growth in the world's second largest economy. The Bank of Japan's tankan corporate survey showed Japanese business sentiment improved slightly more than expected. In the currency market, the euro traded at $1.1405, not far from last week's high of $1.1445, which was its highest level in more than a year as the common currency drew support from expectations that the ECB will likely scale back its stimulus. Jens Weidmann, head of Germany's Bundesbank and a member of the ECB's rate-setting body, said on Saturday that the ECB is working on moving away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. In the Middle East, Qatari shares slumped to 1-1/2-year lows on Sunday as a deadline for Doha to accept a series of political demands by four Arab states were expected to expire late in the day with no sign of the crisis ending.
  • Gold dipped in Asia on Monday after a surprise upbeat reading in the China Caixin PMI in June. Caixin's China manufacturing PMI for June beat expectations, offering hope the world's second-largest economy continues to defy expectations for a slowdown. The private survey came in at 50.4, marking a three-month high. It was up from May's 49.6, which was an 11-month low, and beat a Reuters poll forecast for 49.5. Last week, gold prices were lower at the close on Friday and posted their first weekly decline since March as a rise in global bond yields curbed investor demand for the precious metal. The precious metal still ended the first half of the year with a gain of 8%, boosted by a decline in the dollar to its lows of the year. Gold prices came under pressure amid indications that several major central banks around the world are getting ready to join the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Investor expectations mounted for tighter monetary policy across the globe after the heads of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada adopted a more hawkish view on monetary policy. Hawkish signals from foreign central banks contrasted with doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to hike rates again this year given a recent batch of weak U.S. economic data and growing skepticism that the Trump administration will be able to deliver on its pro-growth agenda. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, but weakness in the dollar in which it is priced, has been offsetting the impact of higher yields. Higher yields tend to increase the opportunity cost of purchasing commodities that don’t bear a yield. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting for fresh cues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Friday’s U.S. jobs report for June will also be closely watched.
  • World No.1 oil exporter Saudi Arabia could raise prices for the heavy crude it sells to Asia in August to the highest in more than three years, trade sources said. The move would come after refiner profits on churning out fuel oil from heavy crude hit record highs, with state oil giant Saudi Aramco cutting heavy crude production as part of a drive led by the OPEC to rein in global output. Saudi Aramco may lift the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Heavy crude to Asia by 20 cents a barrel to $1.65 below the average of Oman and Dubai quotes in August, its narrowest discount since December 2013, according to four Asian crude buyers. A fifth trade source surveyed by Reuters said the price for the grade would remain unchanged from this month. A hike in prices for Saudi heavy crude could buoy demand for such oil from other Middle Eastern producers, as well as supplies from Russia, Angola and the Americas. Meanwhile, the four sources who expected a climb in Saudi heavy crude prices predicted that flagship Arab Light's OSP would fall to a two-month low for August, down 20 cents a barrel after the Dubai market weakened last month. Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 12 million bpd of crude bound for Asia. Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1241-1254 1260 1270-1278
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.05
Crude Oil 46.30-16.90 47.70 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1465-1.1540 1.1620 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200 1.3280
USD/JPY 113.00-113.95 114.40 115.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1231 1224-1216 1205
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 45.22 44.45 42.90-42.30
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.2900-1.2845 1.2790
USD/JPY 112.00-111.60 111.04 110.40-110.00

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Friday and made its intraday high of 1248.10/oz and intraday low of US$1239.05/oz. Gold down by 0.278% at US$1241.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1241-1278 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1231-1224 and 1216-1205. Buy above 1231-1205 with risk below 1205, targeting 1241-1254-1260 and 1270-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1231
S2     1224-1216
S3     1205
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1241-1254
R2     1260
R3     1270-1278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.987

Buy
20-DMA   1256.48 Buy
50-DMA  

1253.24

Buy
100-DMA   1249.23 Buy
200-DMA   1235.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.876 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.825 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.68/oz and intraday low of US$16.50/oz. Silver settled by down by 00.% at US$16.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 18.05-18.30; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.30 with stop loss above 18.30; targeting 16.80-16.40 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.996 Buy
20-DMA   16.86 Buy
50-DMA   16.89 Sell
100-DMA   17.39 Sell
200-DMA   17.33 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.033 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.136 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$46.34/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.80/bbl and settled up by 3.25% at US$46.32/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.5-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 42.90-42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.90-40.90 with risk daily closing below 40.90 and targeting 44.45-45.22 and 46.10-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22
S2     44.45
S3     42.90-42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.30-16.90
R2     47.70
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.255 Sell
20-DMA   44.86 Sell
50-DMA   47.13 Sell
100-DMA   49.25 Sell
200-DMA   49.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.769 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.728 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.13914/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1444/EUR and settled the day down by 0.131% at US$1.1425/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1465-1.1700 targeting 1.1420-1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.1420-1.1140 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1370
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1465-1.1540
R2     1.1620
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.843 Buy
20-DMA   1.1243 Buy
50-DMA   1.1129 Buy
100-DMA   1.0894 Buy
200-DMA   1.0825 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.671 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2944/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3029/GBP and settled the day up by 0.161% at US$1.3026/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3280 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.3050-1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3280.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990
S2     1.2900-1.2845
S3     1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3280

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.450

Buy
20-DMA   1.2804 Buy
50-DMA   1.2866 Buy
100-DMA   1.2653 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.045 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.59/USD and settled the day down by 0.205% at JPY112.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.10-109.50 with targets of 113.00-113.95 and 114.40-115.00 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 111.05-110.40- 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.60
S2     111.04
S3     110.40-110.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.95
R2     114.40
R3     115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.027 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Sell
50-DMA   111.52 Buy
100-DMA   111.77 Sell
200-DMA   111.17 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.273 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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