AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets were subdued for a second session on Wednesday as simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula supported safe-harbors including the yen, bonds and gold. A holiday in the United States and a dearth of major data kept activity muted, though minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting due later in the day could provide some impetus. Among the few releases in Asia was the Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China which dropped to 51.6 in June, from 52.8 in May. North Korea said it had conducted a test of a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile that can carry a large and heavy nuclear warhead. South Korean and U.S. troops fired missiles into the waters off South Korea to show their deep strike precision capability. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for global action against Pyongyang's nuclear threat, though it was not entirely clear what new steps could be taken. Investors awaited minutes of the Fed's June meeting to gauge how committed it was to hiking rates gain this year and any detail on plans to wind back its massive balance sheet. Markets imply around a 60 percent chance of another rate rise in December and a much shallower path of future increases than most Fed members. Indeed, while some other central banks had recently sounded more hawkish, signs were any unwinding of stimulus globally would not be a united affair. The chief economist at the European Central Bank noted healthier inflation was "crucially contingent" on policy staying easy, while Sweden's central bank sounded reassuringly cautious even as it acknowledged further rate cuts were now unlikely.
  • Japan's central bank will cut its inflation forecasts but hold off expanding stimulus this month, people familiar with the matter say, in another sign the bank is retreating from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's initial pledge to do whatever it takes to achieve his ambitious inflation target. The inflation downgrade would be a fresh blow to Kuroda less than a year before his tenure ends next April, and underscores the challenges the central bank faces in using monetary stimulus to both lift prices and convince the public that its policies are working. The Bank of Japan's nine-member board will seek to explain why the strength in the economy has yet to translate into inflation, a dilemma they are struggling with as wages and prices remain stubbornly weak, say sources familiar with its thinking. At a rate review on July 19-20, the BOJ is set to keep monetary policy steady and offer a more upbeat assessment of the economy than it did in June to say it is expanding moderately, reflecting robust business sentiment and consumption, the sources said. But the BOJ is likely to cut its inflation forecast for the current year ending in March 2018, and possibly that for the following year, in a quarterly review of its long-term projections to be released on July 20, they said. The downgrades will likely be minor and reflect the effect of recent oil price falls, companies' reluctance to raise prices and weak inflation expectations, the sources said.
  • Gold prices rose ahead of the Wednesday release of Fed minutes from the June meeting expected to provide greater insight into the chances for another hike this year. Gold prices bounced back after a sharp fall on Tuesday amid heightened geopolitical risk after North Korea said it had successfully test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile. South Korea’s military and Japan’s government confirmed that North Korea had fired an “unidentified ballistic missile” which landed in the Sea of Japan. Tokyo strongly protested what it called a clear violation of UN resolutions. The timing of the launch is significant, come just days before leaders from the Group of 20 nations are due to discuss steps to curtail North Korea’s weapons programs. Upbeat U.S. manufacturing data on Monday reinforced expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and helped the dollar index to rebound from Friday’s nine-month trough. Trade volumes were likely to remain thin with U.S. markets closed on Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday. Oil dipped on Wednesday, pulled down by another rise in OPEC supplies despite a pledge to cut production, but geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula and the Middle East put a floor under prices. Oil exports by the OPEC rose for a second month in June, according to Thomson Reuters Oil Research, despite its pledge to hold back production between January this year and March 2018 in order to prop up prices. OPEC exported 25.92 million bpd in June, 450,000 bpd above May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier. Despite ample supplies, traders said that prices were kept from falling further due to global security risks following North Korea's repeated missile tests and the political crisis between Qatar and an alliance of Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,260 1,270-1,278
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.05
Crude Oil 46.30-46.90 47.70 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1465-1.1540 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200
USD/JPY 113.95 114.40 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,231 1,224-1,216 1,205
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 45.22 44.45 42.90-42.30
EURO/USD 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2845 1.2790 1.2900
USD/JPY 113.00-112.00 111.60 111.04-110.40

Intra-Day Strategy (5th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on tuesday and made its intraday high of 1227.27/oz and intraday low of US$1220.73/oz. Gold down by 0.273% at US$1226.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1241-1278 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1231-1224 and 1216-1205. Buy above 1231-1205 with risk below 1205, targeting 1241-1254-1260 and 1270-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,231
S2     1,224-1,216
S3     1,205
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260
R2     1,260
R3     1,270-1,278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.987

Buy
20-DMA   1256.48 Buy
50-DMA  

1253.24

Buy
100-DMA   1249.23 Buy
200-DMA   1235.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.876 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.825 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.20/oz and intraday low of US$16.05/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.185% at US$16.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.30 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 18.05-18.30; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.30 with stop loss above 18.30; targeting 16.80-16.40 and 16.10-15.65-15.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.996 Buy
20-DMA   16.86 Buy
50-DMA   16.89 Sell
100-DMA   17.39 Sell
200-DMA   17.33 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.033 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.136 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$47.31/bl and made an intraday low of US$47.31/bbl and settled up by 0.148% at US$47.13/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.5-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 42.90-42.30-41.50 and 40.90-40.00. Buy above 42.90-40.90 with risk daily closing below 40.90 and targeting 44.45-45.22 and 46.10-47.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22
S2     44.45
S3     42.90-42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.30-46.90
R2     47.70
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.255 Sell
20-DMA   44.86 Sell
50-DMA   47.13 Sell
100-DMA   49.25 Sell
200-DMA   49.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.769 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.728 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1336/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1377/EUR and settled the day down by 0.114% at US$1.1359/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1465-1.1700 targeting 1.1290-1.1200 and 1.1140-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1290-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1370-1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1290
S2     1.1200-1.1140
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1370
R2     1.1465-1.1540
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.843 Buy
20-DMA   1.1243 Buy
50-DMA   1.1129 Buy
100-DMA   1.0894 Buy
200-DMA   1.0825 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.671 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2929/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3024/GBP and settled the day up by 0.092% at US$1.2937/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2845
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3100-1.3160
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.450

Buy
20-DMA   1.2804 Buy
50-DMA   1.2866 Buy
100-DMA   1.2653 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.045 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.39/USD and settled the day down by 0.370% at JPY113.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.10-109.50 with targets of 113.00-113.95 and 114.40-115.00 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 111.05-110.40- 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.00
S2     111.60
S3     111.04-110.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.95
R2     114.40
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.027 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Sell
50-DMA   111.52 Buy
100-DMA   111.77 Sell
200-DMA   111.17 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.273 Sell

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