AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Most Asian stock markets fell on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed a lack of consensus on the future pace of U.S. interest rate increases, while oil prices inched higher following a steep decline a day earlier. Trading in Asia has been buffeted this week by tensions on the Korean peninsula after North Korea fired a missile, which U.S. officials concluded was an intercontinental ballistic missile, into Japanese waters. The United States said on Wednesday it was ready to use force if needed to stop North Korea's nuclear missile program but said it preferred global diplomatic action against Pyongyang. Fed policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises, according to minutes released on Wednesday of the central bank's June 13-14 policy meeting. Several officials also wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August, but others preferred to wait until later in the year. Markets are waiting for the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data for June, due on Friday, for a steer on Fed policy. The steep decline on Wednesday came on the back of data showing rising OPEC exports. That snapped an eight-day winning streak for U.S. oil, the longest rally in more than five years.
  • Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises, according to the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting on June 13-14 released on Wednesday. The details of the meeting, at which the U.S. central bank voted to raise interest rates, also showed that several officials wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August but others wanted to wait until later in the year. The committee questioned why financial conditions had not tightened despite recent rate rises and a few said equity prices were elevated. Last month's 8-1 vote to lift the benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point, its second this year, signaled the Fed's confidence in a growing U.S. economy and the eventual inflationary effects of low unemployment. In a press conference at the time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen described a recent decline in inflation as temporary and the central bank kept its forecast of one more rate rise this year and three the next. Some policymakers since then, however, have shown increasing worry about the Fed's struggle to get inflation back to its 2 percent objective. The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation slipped again in May to 1.4 percent, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, and has run below target for more than five years.
  • The dollar steadied against its peers early on Thursday after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes took the wind out of its advance, with the market awaiting comments by central bankers and U.S. data for its next cues. But the dollar's advance stalled after the Fed's minutes on its June 13-14 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed a rift among policymakers over the pace of future U.S. rate increases and disappointed some dollar bulls. U.S. data on tap later in the day includes the ADP employment report, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the initial jobless claims. Investors will also look to comments from San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell for their potential impact on U.S. yields. For the euro and European bond markets, markets await the European Central Bank's June policy meeting minutes due later on Thursday. ECB executive board member Peter Praet is also scheduled to take part in a conference in Paris.
  • Oil prices retreated about 4 percent on Wednesday, ending their longest bull-run in more than five years, as climbing OPEC exports and a stronger dollar turned sentiment more bearish. Oil exports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed for a second month in June, Thomson Reuters Oil Research data showed. OPEC exported 25.92 mn bpd in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 mn bpd more than a year earlier. The rise in exports came despite OPEC's vow to rein in production until March 2018 and followed hot on the heels of Reuters' monthly OPEC production survey which found output jumped to a 2017 high last month as OPEC members Nigeria and Libya continued to pump more. Another analyst said the strong dollar provided less incentive to invest in greenback-denominated commodities such as crude oil. The dollar pared some of its early gains but was still up versus a basket of currencies ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes on its June policy meeting. The head of the International Energy Agency told Reuters that rising output from key oil producers could hamper expectations that the oil market would rebalance in the second half of the year. Traders were also eyeing U.S. crude inventory data, delayed by a day due to the U.S. Fourth of July holiday, which is forecast to show a drop of 2.3 million barrels for last week. U.S. oil traders are hoping the sweltering days of July are also hot ones for demand, and that the new month is the last best opportunity this year to see the overhang of inventories finally subside.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,231 1,241-1,254 1,260
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 46.30-46.90 47.70 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1465-1.1540 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200
USD/JPY 113.95 114.4.0 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,205 1,205 1,190
Silver-XAG 15.60-15.30 15.60-15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 45.22 44.45 42.90-42.30
EURO/USD 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2845 1.2790 1.2900
USD/JPY 113.00-112.00 111.60 111.04-110.40

Intra-Day Strategy (6th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Wednesday and made its intraday high of 1228.72/oz and intraday low of US$1217.32/oz. Gold up by 0.222% at US$1226.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1231-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260 and targeting 1224-1216 and 1205-1200. Buy above 1224-1190 with risk below 1190, targeting 1231-1241-1254 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,205
S2     1,205
S3     1,190
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,231
R2     1,241-1,254
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.567

Buy
20-DMA   1246.41 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.45

Buy
100-DMA   1248.93 Buy
200-DMA   1233.22 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.000 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.744 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$16.20/oz and intraday low of US$15.86/oz. Silver settled by u by 0.062% at US$16.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.30-16.80-17.35 and 18.05-18.30; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-18.30 with stop loss above 18.30; targeting 16.00-15.65 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60-15.30
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.087 Buy Buy
20-DMA   16.56 Buy
50-DMA   16.78 Sell
100-DMA   17.31 Sell
200-DMA   17.25 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.033 Sell Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.136 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$47.20/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.51/bbl and settled up by 3.08% at US$45.59/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.00-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.22-44.45 and 42.90-42.30-41.50. Buy above 45.20-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 46.10-47.00 and 47.70-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22
S2     44.45
S3     42.90-42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.30-46.90
R2     47.70
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.936 Sell
20-DMA   44.85 Sell
50-DMA   46.96 Sell
100-DMA   49.03 Sell
200-DMA   49.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.907 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.728 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1311/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1367/EUR and settled the day up by 0.079% at US$1.1351/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1370-1.1620 targeting 1.1290-1.1200 and 1.1140-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1290-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1370-1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1290
S2     1.1200-1.1140
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1370
R2     1.1465-1.1540
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.971 Buy
20-DMA   1.1226 Buy
50-DMA   1.1155 Buy
100-DMA   1.0916 Buy
200-DMA   1.0827 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.381 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0064 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2892/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2947/GBP and settled the day up by 0.147% at US$1.2932/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2845
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3100-1.3160
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.960

Buy
20-DMA   1.2804 Buy
50-DMA   1.2873 Buy
100-DMA   1.2671 Buy
200-DMA   1.2544 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.045 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Wednesday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.68/USD and settled the day down by 0.0088% at JPY113.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.10-109.50 with targets of 113.00-113.95 and 114.40-115.00 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 111.05-110.40- 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.00
S2     111.60
S3     111.04-110.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.95
R2     114.4.0
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.027 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Sell
50-DMA   111.52 Buy
100-DMA   111.77 Sell
200-DMA   111.17 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   64.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.273 Sell

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