AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares lost ground on Friday after a weak session on Wall Street, while global sovereign debt yields were elevated across the board on bets the European Central Bank is moving closer to unwinding its massive monetary stimulus. The prospect of the ECB turning off the flow of easy money has been a dominant global market theme since President Mario Draghi's hawkish comments last week, pushing bond yields higher and hurting equities. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell to an 11-week low the previous day and the German 10-year bund yield rose above 0.5 percent to an 18-month high after the ECB's June meeting minutes showed the central bank opening the door to dropping a long-standing bond buying pledge. But the rise prompted the Bank of Japan to act, pushing the 10-year JGB yield back to 0.090 percent. The central bank, which has tasked itself to control the yield curve as a part of its easy policy, offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year JGBs on Friday in order to cap yields. The markets looked ahead to the closely watched U.S. non-farm jobs report due later in the day. Much focus was on the wage component of the employment report and whether spending by U.S. consumers would be strong enough to back the Fed's intention to further tighten policy. Crude oil prices slipped after a sharp but short-lived boost from a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories of crude and gasoline faded.
  • U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in June and boosted wages for workers, signs of labor market strength that could keep the Federal Reserve on course for a third interest rate increase this year. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will probably show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 179,000 jobs last month after gaining 138,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast steady at a 16-year low of 4.3 percent. It has dropped five-tenths of a percentage point this year and matches the most recent Fed median forecast for 2017. Economists say labor market buoyancy could also encourage the U.S. central bank to announce plans to start reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in September. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in June for the second time this year. But with inflation retreating further below the central bank's 2 percent target in May, economists expect another rate hike only in December. June's anticipated employment gains would be close to the 186,000 monthly average for 2016 and reinforce views that the economy regained speed in the second quarter after a sluggish performance at the start of the year. But the pace of job growth is expected to slow as the labor market hits full employment. There is growing anecdotal evidence of companies struggling to find qualified workers. As a result, some companies are raising wages in an effort to attract and retain their workforces.
  • The European Central Bank should adjust its policy carefully, flexibly and transparently to avoid an abrupt market adjustment, ECB board member Benoit Coeure told France's Le Monde and Italy's La Stampa in a joint interview. "If needed, the Governing Council will continue to adjust its instruments both qualitatively and quantitatively," Coeure was quoted on Friday as saying. "But when this is needed, it should do so carefully and flexibly, and based on what matters for us within the framework of our mandate: the inflation outlook." "We must be transparent in our communications on these developments," he said. "Otherwise we run the risk of a more abrupt adjustment for the markets when the decisions are actually taken."
  • Crude oil prices fell sharply in Asia on Friday as investors shrugged off U.S. inventory data and concentrated on a continued global supply glut. Crude futures settled higher on Thursday, buoyed by data showing that supplies of U.S. crude fell by more than expected, easing concerns that U.S. output would continue to add to the glut in supply. Crude prices eased from highs but ultimately settled higher, after an upbeat report from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday, spurred a recovery in oil prices from a 4% drop sustained in the previous session, as both gasoline and crude stocks piles fell more than expected.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,224-1,231 1,241 1,254-1,260
Silver-XAG 16.00 16.40 16.80-17.35
Crude Oil 45.22 46.30-46.90 47.70
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1465-1.1540 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200
USD/JPY 113.95 114.40 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,194 1,194 1,181
Silver-XAG 15.60-15.30 14.90 14.30
Crude Oil 44.45 42.90-42.30 41.30
EURO/USD 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140 1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2790 1.2790 1.2900
USD/JPY 113.00-112.00 111.60 111.04-110.40

Intra-Day Strategy (7th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1229.06/oz and intraday low of US$1222.43/oz. Gold down by 0.146% at US$1224.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1224-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260 and targeting 1216-1205 and 1194-1181. Buy above 1216-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1224-1231-1241 and 1254-1260.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,194
S2     1,194
S3     1,181
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,224-1,231
R2     1,241
R3     1,254-1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.901

Buy
20-DMA   1244.41 Buy
50-DMA  

1249.52

Buy
100-DMA   1248.75 Buy
200-DMA   1233.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.481 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.373 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Thursday on made its intraday high of US$16.08/oz and intraday low of US$15.92/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.186% at US$16.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.30 targeting 16.30-16.80-17.35 and 18.05-18.30; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-18.30 with stop loss above 18.30; targeting 16.00-15.65 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60-15.30
S2     14.90
S3     14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.00
R2     16.40
R3     16.80-17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.883 Buy
20-DMA   16.49 Buy
50-DMA   16.75 Sell
100-DMA   17.29 Sell
200-DMA   17.24 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   46.170 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.136 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$46.49/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.16/bbl and settled down by 0.723% at US$45.31/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 45.22-47.70 with stop loss at 47.70; targeting 44.45-42.90 and 42.30-41.50. Buy above 44.45-41.30 with risk daily closing below 41.30 and targeting 45.20-46.10-46.90 and 47.70-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     44.45
S2     42.90-42.30
S3     41.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.22
R2     46.30-46.90
R3     47.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.970 Sell
20-DMA   44.78 Sell
50-DMA   46.87 Sell
100-DMA   48.94 Sell
200-DMA   49.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   27.261 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.383 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1329/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1424/EUR and settled the day up by 0.625% at US$1.1422/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1370-1.1620 targeting 1.1290-1.1200 and 1.1140-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1290-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1370-1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1290
S2     1.1200-1.1140
S3     1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1370
R2     1.1465-1.1540
R3     1.1620

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.565 Buy
20-DMA   1.1270 Buy
50-DMA   1.1167 Buy
100-DMA   1.0924 Buy
200-DMA   1.0828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2918/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2982/GBP and settled the day up by 0.286% at US$1.2969/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3100-1.3160
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.373

Buy
20-DMA   1.2817 Buy
50-DMA   1.2875 Buy
100-DMA   1.2677 Buy
200-DMA   1.2544 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.045 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0038 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Thursday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.46/USD and settled the day down by 0.0088% at JPY113.19/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.10-109.50 with targets of 113.00-113.95 and 114.40-115.00 with stop below 109.50. Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 111.05-110.40- 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.00
S2     111.60
S3     111.04-110.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.95
R2     114.40
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.978 Buy
20-DMA   111.80 Sell
50-DMA   111.78 Buy
100-DMA   111.76 Sell
200-DMA   111.48 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   81.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.629 Sell

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