AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Monday thanks to a robust Wall Street performance at the end of last week, while the U.S. dollar extended gains made after much stronger than expected June employment data. On Friday, Wall Street closed higher after U.S. jobs growth beat forecasts. However, a lag in wage increases led investors to bet wage data would limit the extent of the Federal Reserve's hawkishness.The Group of 20 meeting in Hamburg over the weekend did not have much impact on markets on Monday. At the meeting, the world's leading economies broke with the U.S. on climate policy and U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to work together on North Korea's nuclear threat and bilateral trade. Trump also discussed forming a cyber security unit to guard against election hacking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, though he later backtracked from that position.
  • The Bank of Japan offered its most optimistic view of the country's regional economies in more than a decade on solid exports and private consumption, underscoring its conviction a steady recovery is gathering momentum. But BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his resolve to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy until inflation is stably above its 2 percent target, a sign the Japanese central bank will not join its U.S. and European counterparts in dialing back stimulus any time soon. In a quarterly report on regional areas of Japan, the BOJ revised up its assessment for five of nine regions and maintained its upbeat view for the remaining four areas. The report described six regional economies as "expanding moderately" or "moving toward a moderate expansion." It was the first time the BOJ used such strong language for so many regions since it began compiling the report in April 2005. In the past two weeks, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have all switched gears to a more hawkish policy stance, suggesting the era of cheap money is nearing an end. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates twice this year and is seen tightening again before year-end.
  • The dollar was on solid footing on Monday, after a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. jobs suggested the Federal Reserve would stick with its tightening plans for the rest of this year. U.S. job growth surged more than expected in June and employers increased hours for workers, suggesting the Fed could stick to its plan for its third interest rate hike this year and begin to reduce its balance sheet despite sluggish wage gains and tepid inflation. Data released on Monday showed Japan's core machinery orders unexpectedly tumbled in May and the government downgraded the outlook for orders for the first time in eight months, raising doubts about the strength of the country's economic recovery. Recent positioning data showed that some investors pared their long dollar positions ahead of the jobs report, amid concerns that a spate of lackluster data would prompt the Fed to alter its hawkish plans. Speculators this week slashed net long bets on the U.S. dollar to their lowest since mid-May 2016 in the week ended July 4, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the dollar's net long positions dropped to $135 million, from net longs of $4.5 billion the previous week. The latest week marked the first time since mid-April 2016 that net long dollar positioning fell to under $1 billion.
  • Oil prices recovered some losses on Monday after a 3 percent fall in the previous session, but markets remain under pressure from high drilling activity in the United States and ample supplies from producer club OPEC. Traders said the higher prices were reflected opportunistic buying following Friday's steep fall, but added that overall market conditions remain weak. U.S. energy firms added seven oil drilling rigs last week, marking a 24th week of increases out of the last 25 and bringing the total count up to 763, the most since April 2015, Baker Hughes energy services company said on Friday. U.S. oil production has risen over 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.34 million bpd. The rising U.S. output comes as supplies from OPEC also remain ample despite a pledge by the group to cut production between January this year and March 2018. OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, 450,000 bpd more than in May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier. Given ongoing oversupply, analysts said that the market was still some way off from finding a closer balance between demand and available supplies.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,216 1,224-1,231 1,241
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.00 16.40 16.80-17.35
Crude Oil 44.60 45.22 46.30-46.90
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1540 1.1620 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160
USD/JPY 114.40 115.00-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,205-1,194 1,181 1,170
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.90 14.50 14.10
Crude Oil 43.80 42.90-42.30 41.30
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2790 1.2720 1.2650
USD/JPY 113.95 113.00-112.00 111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (10th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Friday and made its intraday high of 1228.22/oz and intraday low of US$1207.17/oz. Gold down by 0.974% at US$1212.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1239) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1216-1241 keeping stop loss closing above 1241 and targeting 1205-1194 and 1181-1170. Buy above 1205-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1216-1224-1231 and 1241-1254.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,205-1,194
S2     1,181
S3     1,170
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,216
R2     1,224-1,231
R3     1,241

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.0675

Buy
20-DMA   1241.01 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.45

Buy
100-DMA   1248.44 Buy
200-DMA   1232.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.654 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.062 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.16/oz and intraday low of US$14.32/oz. Silver settled by down by 2.68% at US$15.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.47), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.10 targeting 15.60-16.00-16.30 and 16.80-17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 15.60-17.30 with stop loss above 17.30; targeting 15.30-14.90 and 14.50-14.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.90
S2     14.50
S3     14.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.00
R2     16.40
R3     16.80-17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.283 Buy
20-DMA   16.41 Buy
50-DMA   16.72 Sell
100-DMA   17.27 Sell
200-DMA   17.22 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.228 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.331 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$45.41/bl and made an intraday low of US$43.76/bbl and settled down by 2.205% at US$44.34/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 44.60-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 43.80-42.90 and 42.30-41.50. Buy above 44.45-41.30 with risk daily closing below 41.30 and targeting 44.60-45.20-46.1 and 46.90-47.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     43.80
S2     42.90-42.30
S3     41.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     44.60
R2     45.22
R3     46.30-46.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.089 Sell
20-DMA   44.66 Sell
50-DMA   46.77 Sell
100-DMA   48.84 Sell
200-DMA   49.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.303 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.463 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1438/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1438/EUR and settled the day down by 0.210% at US$1.1398/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1370-1.1620 targeting 1.1290-1.1200 and 1.1140-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1290-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1370-1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1370
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1460-1.1540
R2     1.1620
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.565 Buy
20-DMA   1.1270 Buy
50-DMA   1.1167 Buy
100-DMA   1.0924 Buy
200-DMA   1.0828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2866/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2974/GBP and settled the day down by 0.601% at US$1.2889/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2845 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2845-1.2790
S2     1.2720
S3     1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3100-1.3160

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.054

Buy
20-DMA   1.2825 Buy
50-DMA   1.2873 Buy
100-DMA   1.2681 Buy
200-DMA   1.2544 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.487 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0038 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY113.09/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.17/USD and settled the day up by 0.0088% at JPY113.89/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 113.95-111.60 with targets of 114.40-115.00 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 111.60. Sell below 114.40-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.95-113.00 and 112.10-111.60- 111.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.95
S2     113.00-112.00
S3     111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.40
R2     115.00-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.852 Buy
20-DMA   112.02 Buy
50-DMA   111.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.77 Buy
200-DMA   111.55 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.629 Sell

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