AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares extended early gains on Tuesday and the dollar notched a four-month high against the yen, as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for clues on when the central bank would tighten U.S. monetary policy. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, added 0.2 percent to 96.163 ahead of Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said Tuesday in Sydney that it was a reasonable view to expect one more rate hike this year, and his own view was to start adjusting the central bank's balance sheet in the next few months. Forecasters are divided on whether the central bank will raise rates but data from the overnight index swaps market shows that money markets are almost fully priced for an increase, while an 80 percent chance of a second hike has been implied by December.
  • The dollar traded below breakeven on Monday, as market participants awaited a raft of economic data due later in the week, expected to provide fresh direction on the greenback while Friday’s solid jobs report limited downside momentum. In what was quiet day for top-tier economic data, the dollar drifted lower but losses were capped as investors continue to cheer Friday’s bullish jobs report suggesting that U.S. economic growth remained robust. Investors are expected to closely monitor events later in the week, which includes testimony from Fed chair Janet Yellen on the state of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. Yellen is scheduled to testify on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee at 14:00GMT Wednesday. On Thursday, she will appear in front the House Financial Services Committee also at 10:00AM ET. The greenback had gained on Friday after a strong U.S. jobs report supported the idea that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates at least once more this year. Investors will be focused this week on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress on Wednesday and U.S. consumer inflation data on Friday.
  • Gold prices generally lost ground in Asia on Tuesday, giving up some gains from Monday, with Tokyo gold standing out as the sole gainer. In the week ahead, investors will focus on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony on monetary policy as well as U.S. data on inflation and retail sales, due out on Friday, and trade data from China on Thursday. A hawkish outlook from the Fed could send gold further down to test multi-month lows. Gold and the dollar typically move in opposite directions, which means if the dollar goes up, gold futures, which are denominated in the U.S. currency, will drop. Last week, gold prices dropped to almost four-month lows on Friday after a stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report boosted the dollar against a basket of the other major currencies. The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs last month the Labor Department reported, more than the 179,000 new jobs expected by economists. The rapid pace of jobs growth reassured investors that the economy is on a strong enough footing to justify the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates once more this year. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has raised doubts over whether officials will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar.
  • Oil edged up on Tuesday, lifted by a strong demand outlook for the coming weeks, but overall market conditions remain weak on the back of an ongoing fuel supply overhang, prompting several banks to cut their price forecasts. Traders said the uptick in prices was in part due to healthy demand expected in the coming weeks. Crude prices are about 18 percent below their 2017 opening levels despite a deal led by the OPEC to cut production from January. OPEC along with some other major exporters like Russia agreed to hold back around 1.8 million bpd of production between January this year and March 2018. However, an over 10 percent jump since mid-2016 in U.S. production to 9.34 million bpd, as well as rising output from Nigeria and Libya, OPEC-members who were exempt from cutting, have undermined efforts to tighten the market. OPEC exported 25.92 million bpd in June, 450,000 bpd more than in May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,216 1,224-1,231 1,241
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.00 16.40 16.80-17.35
Crude Oil 44.60 45.22 46.30-46.90
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1540 1.1620 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160
USD/JPY 114.50 115.00-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,205-1,194 1,181 1,170
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.90 14.50 14.10
Crude Oil 43.80 42.90-42.30 41.30
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2790 1.2720 1.2650
USD/JPY 113.95 113.00-112.00 111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (11th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Friday and made its intraday high of 1215.44/oz and intraday low of US$1204.71/oz. Gold down by 0.127% at US$1214.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1216-1241 keeping stop loss closing above 1241 and targeting 1205-1194 and 1181-1170. Buy above 1205-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1216-1224-1231 and 1241-1254.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,205-1,194
S2     1,181
S3     1,170
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,216
R2     1,224-1,231
R3     1,241

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.026

Buy
20-DMA   1238.34 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.57

Buy
100-DMA   1248.19 Buy
200-DMA   1231.57 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.256 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.660 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$15.72/oz and intraday low of US$15.16/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.320% at US$15.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.24), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-14.10 targeting 15.60-16.00-16.30 and 16.80-17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 15.60-17.30 with stop loss above 17.30; targeting 15.30-14.90 and 14.50-14.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.90
S2     14.50
S3     14.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.00
R2     16.40
R3     16.80-17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   24.068 Buy
20-DMA   16.35 Buy
50-DMA   16.70 Sell
100-DMA   17.24 Sell
200-DMA   17.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.244 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.345 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$44.83/bl and made an intraday low of US$43.63/bbl and settled up by 0.451% at US$44.53/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 44.60-47.00 with stop loss at 47.00; targeting 43.80-42.90 and 42.30-41.50. Buy above 44.45-41.30 with risk daily closing below 41.30 and targeting 44.60-45.20-46.1 and 46.90-47.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     43.80
S2     42.90-42.30
S3     41.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     44.60
R2     45.22
R3     46.30-46.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.135 Sell
20-DMA   44.59 Sell
50-DMA   46.70 Sell
100-DMA   48.75 Sell
200-DMA   49.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.667 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.470 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1381/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1417/EUR and settled the day up by 0.010% at US$1.1398/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1370-1.1620 targeting 1.1290-1.1200 and 1.1140-1.1090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1290-1.1090 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1370-1.1465-1.1540 and 1.1620-1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1370
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1460-1.1540
R2     1.1620
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.565 Buy
20-DMA   1.1270 Buy
50-DMA   1.1167 Buy
100-DMA   1.0924 Buy
200-DMA   1.0828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2854/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2907/GBP and settled the day down by 0.015% at US$1.2879/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2845 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2845-1.2790
S2     1.2720
S3     1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3100-1.3160

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.357

Buy
20-DMA   1.2830 Buy
50-DMA   1.2872 Buy
100-DMA   1.2684 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.487 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0025 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY113.85/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.29/USD and settled the day up by 0.122% at JPY114.02/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 113.95-111.60 with targets of 114.40-115.00 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 111.60. Sell below 114.40-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.95-113.00 and 112.10-111.60- 111.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.95
S2     113.00-112.00
S3     111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.50
R2     115.00-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.852 Buy
20-DMA   112.02 Buy
50-DMA   111.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.77 Buy Buy
200-DMA   111.55 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   85.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.629 Sell

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