AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares gained on Wednesday after Wall Street managed to weather a fresh twist in the controversy over U.S. President Donald Trump's alleged connection with Russia, while investors looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments. U.S. stocks took a brief tumble after emails disclosed Trump's eldest son welcomed help from a Russian lawyer for his father's 2016 election campaign against Hillary Clinton. U.S. shares were helped in part as the Senate announced a two-week delay to its August recess to allow more time to tackle a measure that would repeal key parts of Obamacare, as well as pursue other legislative priorities. Still, it remained unclear whether U.S. Senate Republicans have the votes to pass the measure or even what form it would finally take. On the other hand, the dollar failed to recover after the damage suffered from the new twist in the Trump campaign's alleged links with Russia. The dollar also lost steam against the yen, which had been under renewed pressure following Friday's bond-buying by the Bank of Japan which highlighted divergent monetary polices between the two countries. The move would make Canada the first to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in removing the monetary stimulus poured into the global economy, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England also seen moving in that direction in coming months. Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to Congress on the state of the U.S. economy from 1400 GMT, two of her colleagues cited low wage growth and muted inflation as reasons for caution on further interest rate increases. Fed Governor Lael Brainard embraced the plan to reduce the balance sheet "soon," but suggested her support for any future rate increases will depend in part on how inflation shapes up. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he finds it hard to believe that the U.S. economy is in danger of overheating when wage growth is so low. Traders trimmed expectations of a rate hike by the end of the year, with dollar interest rate futures pricing in about a 55 percent chance compared to about 60 percent earlier, while most investors expect the Fed to decide to start shrinking its balance sheet in September. Reaction was largely muted to a story by Politico that Trump is increasingly unlikely to nominate Yellen next year for a second term, and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is the leading candidate to succeed her.
  • Gold climbed in Asia on Wedneday, continuing a recovery from multi-month lows last week. Gold has been rebounding this week after stronger than expected economic data out of the U.S., a subdued inflation picture in China and a narrower than expected current account surplus in Japan. A strengthening in other commodity prices like oil and iron have also helped while political uncertainty in the U.S. has taken some of the shine off the US dollar. Gold and the dollar typically move in opposite directions, which means if the dollar goes down, gold futures, which are denominated in the U.S. currency, will rise. On Monday, China reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% year-on-year in June and the Producer Price Index rose 5.5%. Earlier, Japan reported its unadjusted current account surplus at •1.654 trillion, narrower than the •1.796 trillion expected, while core machinery orders fell 3.6% on year in May, compared to a gain of 7.7% seen. USD/JPY changed hands at 113.98, up 0.06%. Investors are now looking forward to US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony on monetary policy as well as U.S. data on inflation and retail sales, due out on Friday. Trade data from China on Thursday should also give markets some direction. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has raised doubts over whether officials will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar. Last week, gold prices dropped to almost four-month lows on Friday. The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs last month the Labor Department reported, more than the 179,000 new jobs expected by economists.
  • Oil prices rose more than 1.5 percent on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous day as the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as fuel inventories plunged. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week to July 7 to 495.6 million, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), in an indictor that a long-standing fuel supply overhang is starting to draw down. "All eyes will now turn to the official U.S. crude inventories number this evening," he added. Also, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said late on Tuesday that it expected 2018 crude oil output to rise to 9.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from 9.3 million bpd this year, a 570,000 bpd increase. This was down from last month's forecast 680,000 bpd year-over-year increase. Despite the slight downward revision, U.S. production is still set to break the 9.61 million bpd record from June 2015. At the same time, output from the OPEC remains high despite a pledge led by the producer group to cut supplies between January of this year and March 2018 in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,224-1,231 1,241 1,249
Silver-XAG 16.00 16.40 16.80-17.35
Crude Oil 46.30-46.90 47.50 48.10
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1620 1.1700 1.1750
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160
USD/JPY 113.95 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,216 1,205-1,194 1,181
Silver-XAG 15.60 15.30-14.90 14.50
Crude Oil 45.22-44.60 43.80 42.90-42.30
EURO/USD 1.1460-1.1370 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2845-1.2790 1.2720 1.2650
USD/JPY 113.00-112.00 111.60 110.90

Intra-Day Strategy (12th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1217.30/oz and intraday low of US$1208.06/oz. Gold down by 0.259% at US$1217.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1224-1249 keeping stop loss closing above 1250 and targeting 1216-1205-1194 and 1181-1170. Buy above 1216-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1224-1231 and 1241-1254.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,216
S2     1,205-1,194
S3     1,181
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,224-1,231
R2     1,241
R3     1,249

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.675

Buy
20-DMA   1236.65 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.36

Buy
100-DMA   1248.11 Buy
200-DMA   1231.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -10.961 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$15.84/oz and intraday low of US$15.44/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.343% at US$15.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.24), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.00-16.30 and 16.80-17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.00-17.30 with stop loss above 17.30; targeting 15.60-15.30-14.90 and 14.50-14.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60
S2     15.30-14.90
S3     14.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.00
R2     16.40
R3     16.80-17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.196 Buy
20-DMA   16.32 Buy
50-DMA   16.69 Sell
100-DMA   17.22 Sell
200-DMA   17.19 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.244 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.345 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$45.78/bl and made an intraday low of US$43.81/bbl and settled up by 0.451% at US$45.77/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.30-48.10 with stop loss at 48.10; targeting 45.22-44.60 and 43.80-42.90-42.30. Buy above 45.22-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 46.30-46.90 and 47.50-48.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22-44.60
S2     43.80
S3     42.90-42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.30-46.90
R2     47.50
R3     48.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.079 Sell
20-DMA   44.70 Sell
50-DMA   46.70 Sell
100-DMA   48.68 Sell
200-DMA   49.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.667 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.470 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1382/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1479/EUR and settled the day up by 0.596% at US$1.1466/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving buy crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1540-1.1750 targeting 1.1460-1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1460-1.1140 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460-1.1370
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1540-1.1620
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.108 Buy
20-DMA   1.1305 Buy
50-DMA   1.1200 Buy
100-DMA   1.0951 Buy
200-DMA   1.0831 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2830/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2926/GBP and settled the day down by 0.263% at US$1.2845/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3280 with targets at 1.2845 1.2790-1.2700, breakage above 1.3280 look for further upside with 1.3350 as targets. Buy above 1.2900-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2700 targeting 1.2990-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2845-1.2790
S2     1.2720
S3     1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3100-1.3160

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.080

Buy
20-DMA   1.2834 Buy
50-DMA   1.2871 Buy
100-DMA   1.2688 Buy
200-DMA   1.2545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.336 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0018 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY113.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.49/USD and settled the day up by 0.078% at JPY113.93/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 113.95-111.60 with targets of 114.40-115.00 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 111.60. Sell below 114.40-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.95-113.00 and 112.10-111.60- 111.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.00
S2     111.60
S3     110.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.95
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.624 Buy
20-DMA   112.41 Buy
50-DMA   111.88 Buy
100-DMA   111.78 Buy
200-DMA   111.65 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   0.629 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.629 Sell

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