AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Global stocks scaled record highs on Friday, with Asian equities rising for the fifth straight session, as signs the Federal Reserve will pursue a gradual rate tightening path and hopes of a strong earnings season lifted appetite for risk assets. The dollar was also supported by data showing the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week for the first time in a month and producer prices unexpectedly rose in June. Investors are awaiting a host of U.S. economic indicators, including core inflation, retail sales and industrial production for June later in the session for more insight into how the Fed might proceed with monetary policy tightening this year. For now, markets appear to be shrugging off the revelation by U.S. President Donald Trump's son this week that he'd met with a Russian lawyer during the 2016 presidential campaign after being told she might have damaging information about Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. But political concerns in the U.S. may once again vex investors, as a revised Senate plan to dismantle Obamacare drew criticism from both Republican and Democratic senators. The European Central Bank is likely to signal in September that its bond-buying scheme will be gradually wound down next year and ECB chief Mario Draghi could give the next clue on the plans in late August, the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.
  • The dollar advanced to session highs against a basket of global currencies on Thursday, shrugging off a duo of weaker than expected economic reports. The dollar hit session highs despite data showing that both wholesale inflation and initial jobless claims undershot expectations. Inflation continued to stutter as U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% in June, missing expectations of a 0.2% rise. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims fell by 3000 to 247,000 in the week ended July 7, missing forecasts of a 5,000 decline. The latest batch of soft inflation data come amid a second day of testimony from Fed chair Janet Yellen, which was mainly focused on regulatory issues, but Yellen did mention there weren’t any signs the current economic expansion will come to end soon.
  • Gold lost ground on Friday in Asia as the US dollar gained ground and equity markets continued to climb. Better-than-expected trade figures out of China helped shore up confidence in currencies and equity markets and take some of the shine out of gold, which is usually seen as a safe haven in troubled times. The greenback weakened on Thursday after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expressed dovish views on the outlook for the US economy and the prospect of raising interest rates, saying more rates are likely to happen but without providing a timeline. Yellen's testimony coupled with ongoing political concersn in the U.S. surrounding any links that may exist between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia. Stock markets throughout Asia continued to gain ground on Friday, with investors anticipating relatively strong economic performances in both the U.S. and the major Asian economies for the rest of the year.
  • Oil markets dipped on Friday, pulled down by high fuel inventories and improving industry efficiency, but were still on track for a solid weekly gain. Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and OPEC pledged to withhold around 1.8 million bpd of output between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market. "OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 percent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 percent of the OPEC cuts. U.S. oil production has risen by more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.4 million bpd. Oil analysts at research and brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil stocks remain high. It added that the upside for oil prices looked limited even if OPEC took more action due to high U.S. shale production. Goldman Sachs said that the crude oil price outlook remained weak, largely due to rising cost efficiency from U.S. shale drillers. The slight losses on Friday morning in Asia have done little to cap one of the best weeks for oil in months. Oil prices have been depressed for some three years now, but reports earlier this week of dropping stocks in the U.S. and the possibility of extending an OPEC production cap to members Nigeria and Libya helped shore up markets. Oil started rising on Tuesday after reports that stockpiles in the main delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude in Oklahoma, U.S., had dropped 2.1 million barrels in the week to July 7. Oil rose on again on Wednesday after the US EIA reported a drop in crude supplies of 7.6 million barrels for the week to July 7. The drop was about three times higher than expected and a bit less than the 8.1 million barrel reported by the API the day before. Nigeria reported on late Thursdday that it would limit its output of crude when production after output stabilizes at 1.8 million barrels per day. Nigerian crude output in May hit 1.733 million bpd and June production is expected to be close to the target.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,224-1,231 1,241 1,249
Silver-XAG 16.00 16.40 16.80-17.35
Crude Oil 46.30-46.90 47.50 48.10
EURO/USD 1.1460 1.1540-1.1620 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200
USD/JPY 113.95 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,216 1,205-1,194 1,181
Silver-XAG 15.60 15.30-14.90 14.50
Crude Oil 45.22-44.60 43.80 42.90-42.30
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790 1.2720
USD/JPY 113.00-112.00 111.60 110.90

Intra-Day Strategy (14th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1224.30/oz and intraday low of US$1216.41/oz. Gold down by 0.215% at US$1217.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1224-1249 keeping stop loss closing above 1250 and targeting 1216-1205-1194 and 1181-1170. Buy above 1216-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1224-1231 and 1241-1254.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,216
S2     1,205-1,194
S3     1,181
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,224-1,231
R2     1,241
R3     1,249

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.675

Buy
20-DMA   1236.65 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.36

Buy
100-DMA   1248.11 Buy
200-DMA   1231.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -10.961 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Thursday on made its intraday high of US$15.96/oz and intraday low of US$15.67/oz. Silver settled by up by 0.442% at US$15679/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.00-16.30 and 16.80-17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.00-17.30 with stop loss above 17.30; targeting 15.60-15.30-14.90 and 14.50-14.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60
S2     15.30-14.90
S3     14.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.00
R2     16.40
R3     16.80-17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.569 Buy
20-DMA   16.21 Buy
50-DMA   16.66 Sell
100-DMA   17.18 Sell
200-DMA   17.16 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.900 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.328 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US46.26/bl and made an intraday low of US$44.96/bbl and settled up by 1.453% at US$46.08/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.30-48.10 with stop loss at 48.10; targeting 45.22-44.60 and 43.80-42.90-42.30. Buy above 45.22-42.30 with risk daily closing below 42.30 and targeting 46.30-46.90 and 47.50-48.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.22-44.60
S2     43.80
S3     42.90-42.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.30-46.90
R2     47.50
R3     48.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.176 Sell
20-DMA   44.81 Sell
50-DMA   46.69 Sell
100-DMA   48.51 Sell
200-DMA   49.66 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.667 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.165 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1369/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1455/EUR and settled the day down by 0.113% at US$1.1397/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1460-1.1750 targeting 1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1370-1.1140 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1370
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1460
R2     1.1540-1.1620
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.075 Buy
20-DMA   1.1317 Buy
50-DMA   1.1207 Buy
100-DMA   1.0959 Buy
200-DMA   1.0831 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.526 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2877/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.2954/GBP and settled the day up by 0.434% at US$1.2938/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2900-1.3200 with targets at 1.2845-1.2790 and 1.2700-1.2650, breakage above 1.3200 look for further upside with 1.3280 as targets. Buy above 1.2845-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.2650 targeting 1.2900-1.2990-1.3050 and 1.3100-1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900
S2     1.2845-1.2790
S3     1.2720

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3100-1.3160
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.287

Buy
20-DMA   1.2853 Buy
50-DMA   1.2871 Buy
100-DMA   1.2697 Buy
200-DMA   1.2550 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.336 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Thursday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.85/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.52/USD and settled the day up by 0.114% at JPY113.27/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 113.00-110.90 with targets of 113.95-114.50-115.00 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 111.60. Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.00-112.10 and 111.60- 111.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.00
S2     111.60
S3     110.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.95
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.505 Buy
20-DMA   112.63 Buy
50-DMA   111.90 Buy
100-DMA   111.79 Buy
200-DMA   111.70 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   25.875 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.633 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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