AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • China's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter as industrial output and consumption picked up and investment remained strong, though analysts expect slower growth over the rest of the year as policymakers seek to reduce financial risk. The economy grew 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the same rate as the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the April-June quarter. On a quarterly basis, growth picked up to 1.7 percent from 1.3 percent in the first quarter, in line with expectations. Strength in retail sale and industrial output data helped offset a weak start for China stocks, which may have been linked to talk of tighter financial regulations. Growth in China's economy this year has beaten expectations as exports recover and property construction remains strong, though many analysts expect the world's second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as policy measures to rein in red-hot housing prices and a rapid build-up in debt take a greater toll on growth. The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year's actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years. China's factory output grew 7.6 percent in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three months, while fixed-asset investment expanded 8.6 percent in the first six months of the year, both beating forecasts. Retail sales rose 11.0 percent in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace since December 2015 and beating analysts' expectations for a 10.6 percent rise. An upturn in global demand for Chinese products could be a boon for the country's leaders as they seek to contain a dangerous build-up in debt that has ballooned to 277 percent of GDP. China's steel output rose 5.7 percent in June to a record 73.23 million tonnes, as mills in the world's top producer ramp up production due to fat profits from rallying prices. This comes despite authorities pushing forward supply-side reforms to cut excess capacity in steel and coal sectors. Data last week showed both China's exports and imports rose faster-than-expected in June from a year earlier, which could offset weakness in other parts of economy in the second quarter. Beijing's more modest growth target of around 6.5 percent for 2017 theoretically offers more wiggle room for reforms after the economy grew 6.7 percent in 2016 - the weakest pace in 26 years. China's economic growth is expected to cool further to 6.6 percent in 2017, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, with the pace of expansion slowing steadily in the third- and fourth-quarter.
  • The dollar huddled near a 10-month trough on Monday as upbeat Chinese news and the prospect of only gradual policy tightening in the United States sent investors piling into leveraged positions in higher yielding currencies and risky assets. The repeated disappointment on prices cast a question mark over the Federal Reserve's confidence that inflation would soon rebound. Fed funds futures imply around a 50-50 chance of another hike by December, and have less than two moves priced in for all of next year. Fed policymakers have pencilled in one more rise this year and a further four in 2018. Such periods of market calm favour carry trades since they lessen the risk of sharp and sudden reversals that would stop investors out of their leveraged positions. That encouraged flows into higher-yielding currencies, ranging from the Australian dollar to the Mexican peso and South African rand, and into emerging markets stocks.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by a slowdown in the growth of rigs looking for crude in the United States and because of strong refinery demand from China. Analysts said the rising prices were a result of strong demand as well as signs that a relentless climb in U.S. oil production was slowing. U.S. drillers added two oil rigs in the week to July 14, bringing the total to 765, Baker Hughes said on Friday. While that is the highest level since April 2015, the rate of additions has slowed. New rigs over the past four weeks averaged five, the lowest since November 2016. In Asia, China's refinery activity indicates strong fuel demand. Chinese refineries increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record, with some independent plants raising output even as state oil majors prepare to take drastic steps to cut production during the peak summer season. Throughput last month hit 46.08 million tonnes, or 11.21 million barrels per day (bpd), a 2.3-percent rise from a year ago and up from May's 10.98 million bpd, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. The number was just short of December's record high of 11.26 million bpd. Brent is at similar levels as its average price since 2015, Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows. Most price changes since 2015 have occurred in the first half, or towards the end, of a year. Overall, the second halves of every year since 2015 have seen relatively little price movement.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,241 1,249 1,260
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 46.90-47.50 48.10 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1460 1.1540-1.1620 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 113.00-113.95 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,224 1,216 1,205-1,194
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 46.30 45.22-44.60 43.80
EURO/USD 1.1360 1.1290 1.1200-1.1140
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 112.00-111.60 110.90 110.10

Intra-Day Strategy (17th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1232.70/oz and intraday low of US$1214.67/oz. Gold down by 0.989% at US$1228.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1234-1260 keeping stop loss closing above 1260 and targeting 1224-1216-1205 and 1194-1181. Buy above 1224-1190 with risk below 1190, targeting 1234-1241 and 1254.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,224
S2     1,216
S3     1,205-1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,234-1,241
R2     1,249
R3     1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.519

Buy
20-DMA   1232.97 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.28

Buy
100-DMA   1247.45 Buy
200-DMA   1230.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.119 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.734 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.06/oz and intraday low of US$15.59/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.850% at US$15.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.00-16.30 and 16.80-17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.00-17.30 with stop loss above 17.30; targeting 15.60-15.30-14.90 and 14.50-14.10.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.465 Buy Buy
20-DMA   16.21 Buy Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.16 Sell
200-DMA   17.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.049 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.279 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US46.72/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.77/bbl and settled up by 1.302% at US$46.67/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.90-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 46.30-45.22-44.60 and 43.80-42.90. Buy above 46.30-43.80 with risk daily closing below 43.80 and targeting 46.90-47.50 and 48.10-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.30
S2     45.22-44.60
S3     43.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.90-47.50
R2     48.10
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.794 Sell
20-DMA   44.96 Sell
50-DMA   46.71 Sell
100-DMA   48.45 Sell
200-DMA   49.64 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   93.667 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.026 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1390/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1471/EUR and settled the day up by 0.622% at US$1.1468/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1460-1.1750 targeting 1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1370-1.1140 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1360
S2     1.1290
S3     1.1200-1.1140

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1460
R2     1.1540-1.1620
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.075 Buy
20-DMA   1.1317 Buy
50-DMA   1.1207 Buy
100-DMA   1.0959 Buy
200-DMA   1.0831 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.526 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0071 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2934/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3113/GBP and settled the day up by 1.229% at US$1.3096/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.900

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2877 Buy
100-DMA   1.2705 Buy
200-DMA   1.2554 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.336 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.57/USD and settled the day down by 0.653% at JPY112.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.95-114.50 and 115.00-115.50 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 110.90-110.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.60
S2     110.90
S3     110.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.95
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.040 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Buy
50-DMA   111.87 Buy
100-DMA   111.79 Buy
200-DMA   111.79 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   20.875 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.496 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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