AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares stepped back from more than two-year highs on Tuesday and the dollar extended losses as passage of a U.S. healthcare bill grew doubtful, and as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about raising interest rates. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1 percent, a day after scaling its loftiest levels since April 2015. Republican Senators Jerry Moran and Mike Lee announced their opposition on Monday to legislation to dismantle and replace the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, leaving it without enough votes to pass. Fading support for U.S. President Donald Trump was weighing on the dollar, he said, as the U.S. administration struggled to gather enough backers in the Senate to pass the healthcare reform bill, raising doubts about how the rest of its ambitious agenda would fare. Fading U.S. rate hike bets also weighed on the dollar. Fed funds futures continue to show less than a 50 percent chance of a rate hike in December after Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounded a cautious tone last week in congressional testimony, and following downbeat U.S. inflation and retail sales data on Friday. Overall Asian sentiment remained underpinned by solid China data on Monday, which showed its economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent clip in the second quarter, setting the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target.
  • The U.S. dollar sank to a 10-month low against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, hobbled by uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy tightening and worries that President Donald Trump will fail to deliver healthcare reforms. Two more Republican Senators, Jerry Moran and Mike Lee, announced their opposition on Monday to a revised Republican healthcare bill, delivering a serious blow to the legislation. Friday's weak reading on U.S. inflation and retail sales also fanned speculation that the Fed may not have justification for another rate hike by the end of this year, despite policymakers' projection for such a move. Money market instruments are now pricing in less than 50 percent chance of a rate increase during the rest of the year. In contrast, central bank policymakers in the euro zone, the UK and Canada have recently signaled they could adjust their policies, with the Bank of Canada raising rates last week for the first time since 2010. The dollar's loss accelerated after the euro rose above a major big number of $1.15. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its policy on hold at its rates review on Thursday while many investors expect it to signal a reduction of its stimulus in the following policy meeting in September. China's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent clip in the second quarter, setting the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target.
  • Gold continue to gain ground on Tuesday in Asia a day after China reported strong second quarter GDP, industrial output and retail sales figures for June with industrial metal demand for housing and property development also in focus. China released second quarter GDP growth with a gain of 1.7% that matched expectations and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% that came in slighltly higher than the expected 6.8%. At the same time, China reported industrial production gained 7.6% from a year earlier in June and retail sales rose 11% in June. A weaker dollar has helped shore up sentiment and gold prices. The market will now look towards Thursday and a meeting of the European Central Bank for fresh clues on when the central bank will shift away from its ultra-easy policy. Markets in Japan are shut on Monday for a holiday. Last week, gold prices rose to two-week highs on Friday as weak U.S. inflation data added to doubts over whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates for a third time this year.
  • Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, supported by strong consumption but weighed by ongoing high supplies from producer club OPEC and also the United States. In a sign of strong demand, data on Monday showed refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record. Despite this, oil markets have struggled with oversupply since 2014, resulting in a more than 50 percent fall in prices since then. A deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018 has so far not led to the tighter market and higher prices that producers have hoped for. That's because supplies from within OPEC remain high largely due to rising output from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC states exempt from the pact, and increasing U.S. production. Ecuador, a small producer within OPEC, also said on Tuesday that it is not complying with its production cut of 26,000 bpd due to the country's fiscal deficit which is expected to hit 7.5 percent of GDP this year. Oil Minister Carlos Perez said that Ecuador was only cutting some 60 percent of that figure, putting current output at 545,000 bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,241-1,249 1,260 1,270
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 46.90-47.50 48.10 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1620 1.1700 1.1750
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 113.00-113.95 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,224 1,216 1,205-1,194
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 45.90 45.20-44.60 43.80
EURO/USD 1.1460 1.1360 1.1290-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 112.00-111.60 110.90 110.10

Intra-Day Strategy (18th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Monday and made its intraday high of 1235.88/oz and intraday low of US$1228.12/oz. Gold up by 0.451% at US$1233.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1241-1270 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1234-1224-1216 and 1205-1194. Buy above 1234-1190 with risk below 1190, targeting 1241-1254 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,234-1,224
S2     1,216
S3     1,205-1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,241-1,249
R2     1,260
R3     1,270

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.765

Buy
20-DMA   1232.83 Buy
50-DMA  

1247.67

Buy
100-DMA   1247.32 Buy
200-DMA   1230.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.441 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.078 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Monday on made its intraday high of US$16.18/oz and intraday low of US$15.94/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.322% at US$15.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.30-16.80 and 17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.00-15.60-15.30 and 14.90-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.874 Buy
20-DMA   16.20 Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.14 Sell
200-DMA   17.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.049 Buy Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.240 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US46.72/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.77/bbl and settled up by 1.302% at US$46.67/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.90-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 46.30-45.22-44.60 and 43.80-42.90. Buy above 45.90-43.80 with risk daily closing below 43.80 and targeting 46.90-47.50 and 48.10-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.90
S2     45.20-44.60
S3     43.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.90-47.50
R2     48.10
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.169 Sell
20-DMA   45.06 Sell
50-DMA   46.69 Sell
100-DMA   48.36 Sell
200-DMA   49.62 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.667 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.026 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1434/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1486/EUR and settled the day up by 0.043% at US$1.1477/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving sell crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1540-1.1750 targeting 1.1460-1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1460-1.1200 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1460
S2     1.1360
S3     1.1290-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1540-1.1620
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.203 Buy
20-DMA   1.1364 Buy
50-DMA   1.1240 Buy
100-DMA   1.0986 Buy
200-DMA   1.0838 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.526 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0076 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3045/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3111/GBP and settled the day up by 1.229% at US$1.3053/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.787

Buy
20-DMA   1.2900 Buy
50-DMA   1.2880 Buy
100-DMA   1.2712 Buy
200-DMA   1.2559 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.904 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0055 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY112.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.86/USD and settled the day up by 0.160% at JPY112.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.95-114.50 and 115.00-115.50 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 110.90-110.10

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.60
S2     110.90
S3     110.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.95
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.258 Buy
20-DMA   112.67 Buy
50-DMA   111.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.78 Buy
200-DMA   111.83 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.052 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.381 Sell

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