AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar stayed on the defensive on Wednesday as investors wagered any further tightening in the United States would be slow at best, while optimism on China's economy underpinned Asian shares and commodities. The U.S. currency was near multi-month lows after the collapse of the Republicans' push to overhaul healthcare dealt a blow to President Donald Trump's ability to pass promised tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The diminished prospect of fiscal spending was a boon to bonds, especially as a run of soft U.S. inflation results had lessened the risk that the Federal Reserve would need to be aggressive in removing its stimulus. The dollar also carved out a two-year low on the Australian dollar and a one-year trough on the Swiss franc. Losses have been more limited against the yen as the Bank of Japan has stuck with its massive stimulus campaign and stopped yields there from rising. A man holding an umbrella walks in front of an electronic stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo April 7, 2015. Speculation that the Bank of England might soon tighten was also dealt a blow by surprisingly soft inflation figures at home, giving the dollar a leg up on the pound. In Asia, investor sentiment has also been supported by a raft of upbeat economic news out of China. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.4 percent at its highest since April 2015.
  • The dollar nursed losses on Wednesday after skidding to a 10-month low against a currency basket as Republican legislators' failure to pass a stalled healthcare bill raised fears for the rest of President Donald's Trump reform agenda. Republican efforts to overhaul or repeal Obamacare collapsed in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, rattling financial markets and casting doubt on the chances of getting Trump's economic plans, such as tax reform and stimulus, through a divided Congress. The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting on Thursday, with participants seen likely to adjust their language as they edge the ECB towards normalizing policy. Such adjustments may include dropping a reference to the bank's readiness to increase the size or duration of its asset-purchase program before announcing in the autumn how and when it will start winding down its bond-buying. The ECB, keen to retain flexibility in case the outlook sours, is set to keep its asset purchases open-ended rather than setting a potentially distant date on which bond-buying will stop, three sources familiar with the discussion said. ECB President Mario Draghi roiled markets last month when he opened the door to potential adjustments to the quantitative easing program. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about raising interest rates also weighed on the greenback. Economic data on Tuesday showed U.S. import prices falling for a second straight month in June as the cost of petroleum products declined further, suggesting inflation pressures could remain weak for a while. Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled caution in congressional testimony last week, with disappointing U.S. inflation and retail sales data on Friday adding to evidence that the central bank has reason to take its time in tightening. The Bank of Japan will also conclude a policy meeting on Thursday. Policymakers are expected to raise their economic growth forecasts but cut their rosy inflation outlook, sources say, reinforcing expectations it will lag well behind major global central banks in dialling back its massive stimulus program. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to delay again its projected timing for achieving the 2 percent inflation target.
  • Crude traded weaker in Asia on Wednesday as doubts over OPEC production cuts began to spread and the American Petroleum Instute reported an increase in U.S. supplies of crude. U.S. crude oil inventories estimates from the American Petroleum Institute API) on Tuesday reportedly showed an increase of 1.6 million barrels for the week to July 14, against an expected drop of 3.740 million barrels. Inventories of distillates were dropped 2.9 million barrels, according to reports. The market will now look to data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. U.S. drillers added two oil rigs in the week to July 14, bringing the total to 765, Baker Hughes said last Friday, with five new rigs added on average for each of the last five weeks. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for oil production and oil services demand. In Asia, China's refinery activity continued to indicate strong demand, with oil refineries increasing throughput in June. The bullish data from China, coincided with a report from the International Energy Agency released last week, suggesting that stronger consumption in the second half of the year could offset the glut in supply. Overnight, tiny OPEC member Ecuador said would not be able to abide by the group's production curbs. The country had promised to cut 26,000 barrels of oil per day, a small fraction of the 1.8 million barrels per day the cartel has agreed to cut. The fear, however, is that Ecuador's move could push others to follow suit.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,241-1,249 1,260 1,270
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 46.90-47.50 48.10 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1580-1.1620 1.1700 1.1750
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 113.00-113.95 115.00-115.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,234-1,224 1,216 1,205-1,194
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 45.90 45.20-44.60 43.80
EURO/USD 1.1520-1.1460 1.1360 1.1580-1.1620
GBP/USD 1.3000 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 112.00-111.60112.00-111.60 110.90 110.10

Intra-Day Strategy (19th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1244.39/oz and intraday low of US$1232.69/oz. Gold up by 0.669% at US$1242.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1241-1270 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1234-1224-1216 and 1205-1194. Buy above 1234-1190 with risk below 1190, targeting 1241-1254 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,234-1,224
S2     1,216
S3     1,205-1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,241-1,249
R2     1,260
R3     1,270

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.242

Buy
20-DMA   1232.76 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.19

Buy
100-DMA   1247.29 Buy
200-DMA   1230.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.506 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.35490.506 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.31/oz and intraday low of US$16.07/oz. Silver settled by up by 1.119% at US$16.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.30-16.80 and 17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.00-15.60-15.30 and 14.90-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.831 Buy
20-DMA   16.20 Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.14 Sell
200-DMA   17.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.049 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.240 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US46.91/bl and made an intraday low of US$45.80/bbl and settled up by 0.543% at US$46.21/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.90-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 46.30-45.22-44.60 and 43.80-42.90. Buy above 45.90-43.80 with risk daily closing below 43.80 and targeting 46.90-47.50 and 48.10-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.90
S2     45.20-44.60
S3     43.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.90-47.50
R2     48.10
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.9334 Sell
20-DMA   45.26 Sell
50-DMA   46.67 Sell
100-DMA   48.28 Sell
200-DMA   49.60 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.579 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.022 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1470/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1586/EUR and settled the day up by 0.670% at US$1.1553/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1580-1.1750 targeting 1.1460-1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1460-1.1200 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1520-1.1460
S2     1.1360
S3     1.1580-1.1620

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1580-1.1620
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.922 Buy
20-DMA   1.1384 Buy
50-DMA   1.1254 Buy
100-DMA   1.0996 Buy
200-DMA   1.0841 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.195 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3004/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3124/GBP and settled the day down by 0.114% at US$1.3038/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.260

Buy
20-DMA   1.2915 Buy
50-DMA   1.2880 Buy
100-DMA   1.2719 Buy
200-DMA   1.2563 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.214 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0053 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY111.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.67/USD and settled the day down by 0.488% at JPY112.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.95-114.50 and 115.00-115.50 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 110.90-110.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.60112.00-111.60
S2     110.90
S3     110.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.95
R2     115.00-115.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.465 Buy
20-DMA   112.71 Buy
50-DMA   111.79 Buy
100-DMA   111.76 Buy
200-DMA   111.87 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   18.052 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.301 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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