AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose to their highest levels in nearly a decade on Thursday, bolstered by a surge in global markets, while the yen eased after the Bank of Japan reinforced expectations that it will keep massive stimulus in place far longer than other major central banks. In currency markets, the yen weakened after the BOJ once again pushed back its projected timing for hitting its 2 percent inflation target, as it cut price forecasts until fiscal year 2020. The common currency hit 14-month high this week following seemingly hawkish comments by ECB President Mario Draghi. At Thursday's meeting, the ECB may drop a reference to its readiness to increase the size or duration of its asset-purchase program before announcing in the autumn how and when it will start winding down its bond buying.
  • The European Central Bank is expected to lay the groundwork for an autumn policy shift when it meets on Thursday, emphasizing improved growth while tempering expectations after previously setting off a mini tantrum in financial markets. ECB President Mario Draghi opened the door to policy tweaks in a speech in Sintra, Portugal, last month that was viewed as unexpectedly hawkish. He is unlikely to backtrack, but may temper or at least nuance the message to keep markets at bay. With the end of unprecedented central bank stimulus now within sight, financial investors are nervously sifting through clues, trying to gauge how big central banks around the globe will unwind unconventional policy that have kept borrowing costs at rock bottom. A key discussion for the ECB on Thursday may be whether policymakers should remove their pledge to increase the volume or duration of asset buys if the outlook worsens, a topic already discussed in June when further rate cuts were ruled out. Such a move was seen by some as a foregone conclusion until Draghi sent bond yields and the euro sharply higher when he argued in Sintra that improved growth may provide room for the ECB to tighten policy. But policymakers speaking to Reuters earlier voiced concern about doubling German 10-year yields and the euro's 3 percent rise, fearing that a fresh signal now may be self defeating, pushing up borrowing costs and thwarting a broadening but still relatively young recovery. The ECB has to resolve an apparent disconnect between weak inflation and improving growth. While the bank is not under pressure to make a call on the future of asset buys now, they are now set to run until the end of the year.
  • Gold continued to slide in Asia on Thursday after the dollar showed signs of stopping a long plunge that has taken it to multi-month lows. Gold prices have lost some upward traction as the US dollar halted a plunge but stayed around 10-month lows. The plunge was slowed down by expectations, fuelled last week by the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, that any monetary tightening in the US would happen slowly and reports from China that suggested growth there is slightly ahead of target for the year. Earlier this week, China released second quarter GDP growth with a gain of 1.7% that matched expectations and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% that came in slightly higher than the expected 6.8%. At the same time, China reported industrial production gained 7.6% from a year earlier in June and retail sales rose 11% in June.
  • Oil prices held steady on Thursday, hanging on to gains made the previous session when falling U.S. crude inventories lifted the market, as analysts offered mixed supply outlooks for the commodity ahead of a key OPEC meeting next week. Crude oil prices are still capped below the key $50-per-barrel mark on concerns about high production from the OPEC despite its pledge to cut output along with non-OPEC producers. Prices for both crudes jumped more than 1.5 percent in the previous session on a report showing U.S. crude and fuel stocks fell last week. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week to July 14, according to data from the EIA, against analyst expectations for a decrease of 3.2 million barrels. Traders said this was in part due to steadily rising U.S. production, which has increased by almost 12 percent since mid-2016 to 9.4 million bpd. The rising U.S. output and high inventories as well as the increased production from some OPEC members are preventing prices from rising much further, traders said. U.S. crude stockpiles are just over 490 million barrels versus an average of about 401 mn barrels over the past five years. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are due to meet in St. Petersburg, Russia, next Monday to discuss the current situation in oil markets. OPEC and non-member producers, including Russia, have pledged to cut production by 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018. A lack of compliance by some, though, and exemptions for Nigeria and Libya have undermined that OPEC-led effort, preventing prices from rising by much. Analysts, however, pointed to rising political risk factors, including potential U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, that could impact oil prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,241-1,249 1,260 1,270
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 47.50-48.10 49.00 49.60
EURO/USD 1.1580-1.1620 1.1700 1.1750
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3160 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 113.00-113.95 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,205-1,194 1,205-1,194 1,205-1,194
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 46.90 45.90 45.20-44.60
EURO/USD 1.1510-1.1460 1.1360 1.1290-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3000 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 112.00-111.60 110.90 110.10

Intra-Day Strategy (20th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Tuesday and made its intraday high of 1244.39/oz and intraday low of US$1232.69/oz. Gold up by 0.669% at US$1242.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1241-1270 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1234-1224-1216 and 1205-1194. Buy above 1234-1190 with risk below 1190, targeting 1241-1254 and 1260-1270.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,205-1,194
S2     1,205-1,194
S3     1,205-1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,241-1,249
R2     1,260
R3     1,270

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.242

Buy
20-DMA   1232.76 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.19

Buy
100-DMA   1247.29 Buy
200-DMA   1230.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.506 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.354 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$16.34/oz and intraday low of US$16.13/oz. Silver settled by down by 0.0615% at US$16.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.30-16.80 and 17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.00-15.60-15.30 and 14.90-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.164 Buy
20-DMA   16.20 Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.09 Sell
200-DMA   17.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.258 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.117 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US47.25/bl and made an intraday low of US$46.11/bbl and settled up by 1.904% at US$47.08/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 47.50-49.60 with stop loss at 49.60; targeting 46.90-46.30-45.22 and 44.60-43.80. Buy above 46.90-44.60 with risk daily closing below 44.00 and targeting 47.50-48.10 and 49.00-.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.90
S2     45.90
S3     45.20-44.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.50-48.10
R2     49.00
R3     49.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.368 Sell
20-DMA   45.53 Sell
50-DMA   46.68 Sell
100-DMA   48.23 Sell
200-DMA   49.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.818 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.174 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1509/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1556/EUR and settled the day down by 0.328% at US$1.1514/EUR on session close. On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0877), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1580-1.1750 targeting 1.1460-1.1370-1.1290 and 1.1200-1.1140 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1090. Buy above 1.1460-1.1200 with risk below 1.1090 targeting 1.1540-1.1620 and 1.1700-1.1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1510-1.1460
S2     1.1360
S3     1.1290-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1580-1.1620
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.045 Buy
20-DMA   1.1401 Buy
50-DMA   1.1267 Buy
100-DMA   1.1006 Buy
200-DMA   1.0843 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.195 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3010/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3052/GBP and settled the day down by 0.138% at US$1.3020/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2616) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3160
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.285

Buy
20-DMA   1.2931 Buy
50-DMA   1.2883 Buy
100-DMA   1.2726 Buy
200-DMA   1.2566 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.214 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0053 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Wednesday to made intra‐day low of JPY111.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.22/USD and settled the day down by 0.089% at JPY111.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 112.00-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.95-114.50 and 115.00-115.50 with stop below 110.00. Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.10-111.60 and 110.90-110.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.60
S2     110.90
S3     110.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.95
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.152 Buy
20-DMA   112.74 Buy
50-DMA   111.75111.75 Buy
100-DMA   111.74 Buy
200-DMA   111.91 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   21.190 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.217 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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