AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar headed for weekly losses on Friday, wallowing at its lowest levels against the euro in nearly two years after what markets perceived as hawkish talk from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi. But the Australian dollar skidded against the greenback after contrastingly dovish comments from a Reserve Bank of Australia official. Draghi said that no exact date had been set for discussing any changes to the ECB's ultra-easy monetary programme but did say policymakers would revisit the topic in the autumn. His comments were perceived as "hawkish, even though the ECB didn't tip its hand as to when it will begin balance sheet normalisation and in fact left the door open to additional easing if needed," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Private Client Group in Helena, Montana. The dollar's losses against the yen were mitigated by market expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep its massive stimulus programme in place far longer than other major central banks amid stubbornly weak inflation. On Thursday, the BOJ kept monetary policy steady as expected and postponed the timeframe to achieve its ambitious inflation target for a sixth time, though it slightly raised its economic growth forecasts. Concerns over low inflation will likely keep the Federal Reserve from raising U.S. rates at its policy meeting next week, analysts said. Fed Chair Janet Yellen signalled caution in her congressional testimony last week, with disappointing U.S. inflation and retail sales data a week ago adding to evidence that the central bank has reason to take its time in tightening even as it has vowed to do so. U.S. President Donald Trump's failure to garner enough support for his healthcare bills in the Senate this week also weighed on the dollar, as it raised fears about similar obstacles in passing his stimulus and tax reform agendas. The Australian dollar plunged after a top central banker said on Friday that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn't need to follow the leader when it comes to global monetary tightening.
  • The euro held near two-year highs against the dollar on Friday after the head of the European Central Bank said tapering of its stimulus will be on the table this autumn, while a solid global economic outlook kept Asian share prices near decade highs. Although ECB President Mario Draghi set no date for changes to the bond-buying plan, investors took his comments on Thursday as confirming their expectations that the discussions would lead to monetary tightening next year. Signs of steady global growth, which have prompted the ECB and a couple of other major central banks to signal future tightening since last month, have kept the world's shares on firm footing. U.S. quarterly earnings are expected to have climbed 8.6 percent, above the 8-percent rise projected at the start of the month, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. About 15 percent of S&P 500 companies having posted results so far. Still, the major U.S. indexes were almost flat on Thursday, not helped by concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's inability to push his through healthcare reform bills, the passage of which will be needed to finance his tax cut plans. While the euro gained sharply on Draghi's comments, global bond markets reacted more calmly, partly as he did not give a clear signal on when the ECB will announce its tapering.
  • Oil prices settled down in Asia after hitting month-long highs overnight and ahead of a meeting of the oil producers on Monday. Oill prices climbed Thursday after U.S. crude oil inventories fell 4.73 million barrels for the week to July 14, the EIA reported. That drop built on a 7.5 million drop recorded the week earlier. Gasoline inventories dropped by 4.4 million barrels. The rally in oil on Thursday, which took prices to highs not seen since June 7, was also powered by expectations that oil producers might cut supplies. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are scheduled to meet Monday in Russia and traders are watching for any signs that Saudi Arabia, the largest producers of crude in the world, may cut its output. In May, OPEC and a number of non-OPEC members like Russia agreed to tackle oversupply in global crude market by cutting production by 1.8 million barrels per day between January 2017 and March 2018. Earlier this week, tiny producer Ecuador signalled it might not abide by the cuts, causing fears that other larger producers might follow suit.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,249-1,260 1,270 1,279
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.80-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 47.50-48.10 49.00 49.60
EURO/USD 1.1680-1.1720 1.1750 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 112.00 113.00-113.95 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,241-1,234 1,224 1,249-1,260
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 46.70 45.90 45.20-44.60
EURO/USD 1.1620 1.1580 1.1510-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2960 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 111.60-110.90 110.10 109.50

Intra-Day Strategy (21st July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Thursday and made its intraday high of 1247.39/oz and intraday low of US$1235.16/oz. Gold up by 0.282% at US$1244.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1249-1270 keeping stop loss closing above 1270 and targeting 1241-1234-1224 and 1216-1205. Buy above 1241-1205 with risk below 1190, targeting 1254-1260 and 1270-1279.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,241-1,234
S2     1,224
S3     1,249-1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,249-1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,279

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.745

Buy
20-DMA   1231.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1248.95

Buy
100-DMA   1247.36 Buy
200-DMA   1230.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.111 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.587 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Thursday on made its intraday high of US$16.39/oz and intraday low of US$16.12/oz. Silver settled up by 0.307% at US$16.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.10 targeting 16.30-16.80 and 17.35-18.05; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.30-17.70 with stop loss above 17.70; targeting 16.00-15.60-15.30 and 14.90-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40
R2     16.80-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.164 Buy
20-DMA   16.20 Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.09 Sell
200-DMA   17.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.258 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.117 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US47.71/bl and made an intraday low of US$46.79/bbl and settled down by 0.783% at US$46.87/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 47.50-49.60 with stop loss at 49.60; targeting 46.90-46.30-45.22 and 44.60-43.80. Buy above 46.90-44.60 with risk daily closing below 44.00 and targeting 47.50-48.10 and 49.00-.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.70
S2     45.90
S3     45.20-44.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.50-48.10
R2     49.00
R3     49.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.735 Sell
20-DMA   45.72 Sell
50-DMA   46.66 Sell
100-DMA   48.17 Sell
200-DMA   49.57 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.494 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.174 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1478/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1656/EUR and settled the day down by 0.999% at US$1.1629/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1680-1.1800 targeting 1.1620-1.1580-1.1510 and 1.1460-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800. Buy above 1.1620-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460 targeting 1.1680-1.1720 and 1.1750-1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1620
S2     1.1580
S3     1.1510-1.1460

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1680-1.1720
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.142 Buy
20-DMA   1.1430 Buy
50-DMA   1.1283 Buy
100-DMA   1.1017 Buy
200-DMA   1.0847 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.195 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2932/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3031/GBP and settled the day down by 0.384% at US$1.2970/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.297

Buy
20-DMA   1.2942 Buy
50-DMA   1.2884 Buy
100-DMA   1.2733 Buy
200-DMA   1.2570 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.214 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Thursday to made intra‐day low of JPY111.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.41/USD and settled the day down by 0.053% at JPY111.88/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.60-109.50 with targets of 112.00-113.00-113.95 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 115.00. Sell below 112.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 111.60-110.90 and 110.10-109.5.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60-110.90
S2     110.10
S3     109.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00
R2     113.00-113.95
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.78443.784 Buy
20-DMA   112.76 Buy
50-DMA   111.72 Buy
100-DMA   111.71 Buy
200-DMA   111.95 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   21.082 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.127 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING