AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks edged slightly higher on Monday, while the European Central Bank's apparent equanimity at the euro's nearly two-year highs left the dollar languishing. Despite a pullback in Asia-Pacific stocks, sentiment remains solid, said Jim McCafferty, head of equity research for Asia Pacific at Nomura.. ECB President Mario Draghi's comments on Thursday, which conspicuously avoided citing the euro's recent strength as a problem, emboldened traders convinced the central bank will begin tapering its bond-buying program later this year. The common currency's advance was limited after euro zone yields fell across the board on Friday, with the strong currency prompting investors to question the timing of the ECB's planned stimulus withdrawal. The euro has been on strong footing this month after what the markets perceived as hawkish talk from ECB President Mario Draghi reinforced views that the central bank would begin moving away from its easy policy sooner rather than later.
  • The dollar struggled near a 13-month low against a basket of major currencies on Monday as U.S. political turmoil dampened hopes for quick passage of President Donald Trump's stimulus and tax reform agendas and the euro extended gains. The Trump administration, already dogged by investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. election, took a fresh hit on Friday after White House spokesman Sean Spicer resigned, highlighting the upheaval within the president's inner circle. Neither did he express any concern at the currency's strength. Speculators' bets on the U.S. dollar swung to a net short for the first time in more than a year, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday According to the same data, Japanese yen net shorts grew to their largest since January 2014. Koji Fukaya, president at FPG Securities in Tokyo, said the high level of yen shorts probably reflected yen trades versus non-dollar currencies, so called cross trades. The Bank of Japan has stuck to its easy monetary policy while other major central banks have signaled shifts to normalizing policy, which is why some investors have expected a weaker yen. The Japanese currency stood in proximity of a 17-month low against the euro and a 19-month trough versus the Australian dollar.
  • Gold ticked slightly lower in Asia on Monday with the latest views from the Fed expected to set the tone later this week. On Wednesday, the Fed will give its latest views on rates ahead of the first look at U.S. second quarter growth on Friday. The Fed is expected to hold steady. Last week, gold prices rose for a sixth straight session on Friday, to notch up the largest weekly gain in two months as the U.S. dollar slid to its lowest level in more than a year. A weaker dollar tends to boost prices for gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency. The greenback was pressured lower by the stronger euro, which was boosted by expectations that the European Central Bank is moving closer to tapering its bond-buying program and fresh political turmoil in Washington. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that the investigation into alleged links between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia in last year’s election is extending into his business. Earlier in the week, Republican lawmakers pulled the plug on the latest version of a contentious bill to replace Obamacare, delivering a major policy blow to the Trump administration. The failure to deliver on healthcare reform indicated that Trump’s other legislative efforts, such as overhauling the tax code and implementing fiscal stimulus could face difficulties.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia on Monday ahead of a July 24 meeting on OPEC and allies to review progress on output cuts. On Wednesday, the Fed will give its latest views on rates ahead of the first look at U.S. second quarter growth on Friday. Last week, oil prices settled lower for the second session in a row on Friday, ending at its weakest level in about a week as sentiment soured amid indications that supply from OPEC was set to rise, despite the cartel's agreement to curb production. Oil sank on Friday after tanker-tracking firm PetroLogistics said crude output from OPEC members was set to rise by 145,000 barrels a day in July from a month earlier. The increase in oil supply would push production above 33 million barrels per day, due to increased output from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Nigeria. The news comes ahead of a highly-anticipated meeting of some oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Russia on Monday, who are gathering to discuss compliance with the cartel's deal to cut production. Market experts say the ministers will likely recommend maintaining the policy of holding back output at current levels, but efforts will be made to bring Nigeria and Libya into the framework due to the recent recovery of their production. In May, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended an agreement to slash 1.8 mn bpd in supply until March 2018. So far, the agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, in the U.S., weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil declined by 1 to 764 last week, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,270 1,279 1,289
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 46.70 47.50-48.10 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1680-1.1720 1.1750 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3140 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 111.60 112.00 113.00-113.95

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,249 1,241-1,234 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 45.30-44.60 44.00 43.50
EURO/USD 1.1620 1.1580 1.1750
GBP/USD 1.2960 1.2900 1.3050-1.3140
USD/JPY 110.90-110.10 109.50 108.70

Intra-Day Strategy (24th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Friday and made its intraday high of 1255.59/oz and intraday low of US$1235.16/oz. Gold up by 0.855% at US$1254.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1260-1289 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1249-1241-1234 and 1224-1216. Buy above 1249-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1279-1289.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,249
S2     1,241-1,234
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,270
R2     1,279
R3     1,289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.153

Buy
20-DMA   1232.90 Buy
50-DMA  

1249.61

Buy
100-DMA   1247.65 Buy
200-DMA   1230.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.111 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.321 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.50/oz and intraday low of US$16.28/oz. Silver settled up by 1.165% at US$16.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.989 Buy
20-DMA   16.17 Buy
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   17.09 Sell
200-DMA   17.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.258 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US47.18/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.52/bbl and settled down by 2.75% at US$45.59/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.70-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.30-44.60 and 44.00-43.00. Buy above 45.30-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.70-47.50 and 48.10-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.30-44.60
S2     44.00
S3     43.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     46.70
R2     47.50-48.10
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.734 Sell
20-DMA   45.77 Sell
50-DMA   46.57 Sell
100-DMA   48.09 Sell
200-DMA   49.54 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.677 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.090 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1618/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1682/EUR and settled the day up by 0.275% at US$1.1661/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1680-1.1800 targeting 1.1620-1.1580-1.1510 and 1.1460-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800. Buy above 1.1620-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460 targeting 1.1680-1.1720 and 1.1750-1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1620
S2     1.1580
S3     1.1750

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1680-1.1720
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.662 Buy
20-DMA   1.1454 Buy
50-DMA   1.1028 Buy
100-DMA   1.1028 Buy
200-DMA   1.0850 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.195 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2952/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3018/GBP and settled the day up by 0.192% at US$1.2995/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3380 with targets at 1.2990-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2990-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.3050-1.3140

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3050-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.197

Buy
20-DMA   1.2956 Buy
50-DMA   1.2886 Buy
100-DMA   1.2740 Buy
200-DMA   1.2574 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.214 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0045 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY111.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.07/USD and settled the day down by 0.679% at JPY111.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-108.70 with targets of 111.60-112.00 and 113.00-113.95 with stop below 108.70. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.60-110.90 and 110.10-109.5.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.10
S2     109.50
S3     108.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.231 Buy
20-DMA   112.68 Buy
50-DMA   111.65 Buy
100-DMA   111.68 Buy
200-DMA   111.98 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   14.273 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.035 Sell

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