AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar held above a 13-month low on Tuesday after readings on U.S. factory and services activity beat expectations ahead of the start of a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, but Asian stocks were subdued with few catalysts to drive them. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose on expectations the Fed will signal its readiness to begin reducing its bond portfolio at its September meeting. On Monday, Markit's U.S. manufacturing and services flash surveys both beat expectations, while euro zone business growth at the start of the second half of the year slowed. Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor, told Senate investigators on Monday he had met with Russian officials four times last year but said he did not collude with Moscow to influence the 2016 U.S. election. The ongoing probes into Russia's meddling in the election by congressional panels and a Justice Department special counsel, as well as weak U.S. economic data and reduced inflation expectations, have weighed on the dollar for much of the month. The U.S. dollar rose from its lowest in more than a year and U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors braced for news from this week's U.S. central bank meeting and possible hints on when the next interest rate hike is coming. The Nasdaq hit a record high ahead of a big week of technology earnings reports, though stocks on global markets were mostly lower. Developments in Washington, weak U.S. economic data and reduced inflation expectations have weighed on the dollar for much of the month. Many analysts and investors expect the Federal Reserve to say it will begin reducing its bond portfolio at its September meeting, but will await firmer indications on the timing of this effort at this week's two-day meeting, which begins Tuesday. Further U.S. rate hikes are not seen as likely until December. Futures traders are pricing in a 47-percent chance that the Fed will raise rates at its December meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Data this week includes U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter which is due on Friday.
  • Gold prices remained roughly unchanged on Monday, as investors mulled over mostly upbeat economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week while continued U.S. political uncertainty limited downside momentum. Gold prices pulled back from highs on Monday, amid an uptick in the greenback, following upbeat economic reports easing investor concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy. On Monday, Markit's manufacturing and services flash surveys both showed the U.S. beating expectations. In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said Monday, sales of second-hand homes slid in June to the lowest level since February as tight supply and high prices weighed on housing activity despite strong demand. Sales of previously-owned homes fell 1.8% in June from the previous month, to an annualized pace of 5.52m units. U.S. political uncertainty also added a measure of support for the precious metal, as President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kusher, in his testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, said neither that he nor anyone in the Trump campaign team colluded with Russian officials over the US election. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A rise in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, decreases demand. The trio of economic reports come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting slated for Wednesday, with the majority of analysts expecting the Fed to keep its benchmark rate unchanged.
  • Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia pledged to curb exports from next month and OPEC called on several members to boost compliance with output cuts to help rein in oversupply and tackle flagging prices. Gains were also supported by a warning from Halliburton's executive chairman that the growth in North America's rig count was "showing signs of plateauing," a possible threat to U.S. shale oil production. In a meeting in St. Petersburg on Monday, the OPEC and non-OPEC producers discussed extending their deal to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) beyond March 2018 if necessary. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih added his country would limit its crude exports to 6.6 million bpd in August, almost 1 million bpd below levels of a year ago. Nigeria voluntarily agreed to join the deal by capping or cutting its output from 1.8 million bpd, once it stabilizes at that level. Nigeria, which has been producing 1.7 million bpd recently, had been exempt from the output cuts. OPEC said stocks held by industrial nations had fallen by 90 million barrels over January to June, but were still 250 million barrels above the five-year average, which is the target for OPEC and non-OPEC. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said an additional 200,000 bpd of oil could be removed from the market if compliance to OPEC-led deal was 100 percent. China's crude imports will exceed 400 million tonnes (8 mn bpd) this year and likely grow by double digits next year, a Sinopec Group executive said. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories likely fell by 3 million barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed ahead of a data release from the American Petroleum Institute.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,270 1,279 1,289
Silver-XAG 16.80-17 35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 47.00 47.50-48.10 49.00
EURO/USD 1.1680-1.1720 1.1750 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3140 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 111.60 112.00 113.00-113.95

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,249 1,241-1,234 1,224
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 46.50 45.30-44.60 44.00
EURO/USD 1.1620 1.1580 1.1680-1.1720
GBP/USD 1.2960 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 110.90-110.10 109.50 108.70

Intra-Day Strategy (25th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed up on Monday and made its intraday high of 1258.69/oz and intraday low of US$1251.81/oz. Gold up by 0.002% at US$1255.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1260-1289 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1249-1241-1234 and 1224-1216. Buy above 1249-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1260-1270 and 1279-1289.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,249
S2     1,241-1,234
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,270
R2     1,279
R3     1,289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.153

Buy
20-DMA   1232.90 Buy
50-DMA  

1249.61

Buy
100-DMA   1247.65 Buy
200-DMA   1230.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.111 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.321 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Monday on made its intraday high of US$16.57/oz and intraday low of US$16.40/oz. Silver settled down by 0.242% at US$16.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17 35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.841 Buy
20-DMA   16.16 Buy
50-DMA   16.66 Sell
100-DMA   17.06 Sell
200-DMA   17.12 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.269 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0694 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US46.50/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.38/bbl and settled up by 1.864% at US$46.44/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 46.70-49.00 with stop loss at 49.00; targeting 45.30-44.60 and 44.00-43.00. Buy above 45.30-43.00 with risk daily closing below 43.00 and targeting 46.70-47.50 and 48.10-49.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.50
S2     45.30-44.60
S3     44.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.00
R2     47.50-48.10
R3     49.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.734 Sell
20-DMA   45.09 Sell
50-DMA   46.70 Sell
100-DMA   48.37 Sell
200-DMA   49.62 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.519 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.005 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1625/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1683/EUR and settled the day down by 0.180% at US$1.1640/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1680-1.1800 targeting 1.1620-1.1580-1.1510 and 1.1460-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800. Buy above 1.1620-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460 targeting 1.1680-1.1720 and 1.1750-1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1620
S2     1.1580
S3     1.1680-1.1720

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1680-1.1720
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.686 Buy
20-DMA   1.1469 Buy
50-DMA   1.1308 Buy
100-DMA   1.1039 Buy
200-DMA   1.0853 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.928 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0104 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2984/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3057/GBP and settled the day up by 0.323% at US$1.3027/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3050-1.3380 with targets at 1.2960-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2960-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3050-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3050-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.180

Buy
20-DMA   1.2968 Buy
50-DMA   1.2889 Buy
100-DMA   1.2749 Buy
200-DMA   1.2578 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0048 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.61/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.31/USD and settled the day down by 0.018% at JPY111.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-108.70 with targets of 111.60-112.00 and 113.00-113.95 with stop below 108.70. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.60-110.90 and 110.10-109.5.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.10
S2     109.50
S3     108.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   112.62 Buy
20-DMA   112.62 Buy
50-DMA   111.61 Buy
100-DMA   111.65 Buy
200-DMA   112.02 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   16.727 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING