AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks steadied on Wednesday and the dollar held firm as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day for more clues on its tightening plans. The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting later on Wednesday, and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. With a rate hike not in the picture this time, the focus will be on the Fed's statement, with markets looking for signs of when the central bank will begin paring its massive bond holdings and next raise rates. Its statement is expected at 1800 GMT. Federal funds futures implied traders saw the chance of a Fed rate increase in September at about 8 percent and a December hike possibility at 48 percent. A more assertive policy message by the Fed, on the other hand, would likely lift U.S. yields and boost the dollar. The dollar regained some ground against major currencies in the previous session after U.S. Treasury yields jumped the most in almost five months in response to Wall Street's rise and on reduced demand for safe-haven bonds. But the greenback remained hobbled by uncertainty about the progress of healthcare reforms and the prospect of further delays for President Donald's Trump's ambitious stimulus and tax reform policies. U.S. Senate Republicans narrowly agreed on Tuesday to open debate on a bill to end Democratic President Barack Obama's signature healthcare law, but it still faces significant hurdles. Indeed, the first of many expected votes this week on repealing or replacing elements of Obamacare failed to get the 60 votes needed for approval Tuesday night. The dollar has also been kept in check by political uncertainty as lawmakers investigate possible meddling by Russia in the 2016 presidential election and whether there was any collusion by Trump's campaign. The euro was effectively flat at $1.1639, pulling back from a two-year high of $1.1712 hit on Tuesday on a stronger-than-expected German Ifo business survey. Expectations that the European Central Bank would begin phasing out its easy monetary policy sooner rather than later have supported the common currency this month.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and possibly hint that it will start winding down its massive holdings of bonds as soon as September in what would be a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. The U.S. central bank will issue its latest rates decision following the end of a two-day policy meeting at 2 p.m. EDT. Economists expect the Fed's benchmark lending rate to remain in a target range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent. That would mark another pause in the monetary tightening campaign that the Fed began in December 2015. The central bank has raised rates twice this year, including at its last policy meeting in June. Wall Street analysts see little chance the Fed will announce the start of the wind down of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. However, the Fed's policy statement may provide more visibility on when that might occur. After pushing rates nearly to zero in a bid to boost investment and hiring, the Fed pumped over $3 trillion into the economy through purchases of U.S. Treasury securities and government-backed mortgage debt to further reduce rates. That program drew criticism from Republican lawmakers in Congress. The subsequent economic recovery, marked by strong and steady job gains, has pushed the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3 percent, near a 16-year low. Fed policymakers have said labor market strength could eventually push inflation too high. The Fed recently signaled it would begin to trim its balance sheet this year. Yellen said earlier this month that process could begin relatively soon and economists polled by Reuters expect the announcement will come in September.
  • Oil rose 3.3 percent on Tuesday to the highest close in more than a month, a day after U.S. oil producer Anadarko said it would cut capital spending plans and Saudi Arabia vowed to reduce crude exports to help curb global oversupply. The lower oil prices in June and July may have been affecting U.S. shale production, said Mark Watkins, regional investment manager at U.S. Bank. On Monday, Anadarko Petroleum Corp posted a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and said it would cut its 2017 capital budget by $300 million because of depressed oil prices, the first major U.S. oil producer to do so. Earlier, Halliburton's executive chairman said growth in North America's rig count was "showing signs of plateauing." At a meeting of the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Monday in St Petersburg, Russia, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said his country would limit crude exports to 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, down almost 1 million bpd from a year earlier. Nigeria agreed to join the deal by capping or cutting its output from 1.8 million bpd once it stabilizes at that level. OPEC said stocks held by industrial nations had fallen by 90 million barrels in the first six months of the year but were still 250 million barrels above the five-year average, which is the target level for OPEC and non-OPEC members. U.S. crude stocks fell sharply last week as refineries boosted output, while gasoline inventories increased and distillate stocks decreased, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Crude inventories fell by 10.2 million barrels in the week ending July 21 to 487 million, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Both benchmarks rose more than 2 dollars after the data in post-settlement trading.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,249 1,260-1,270 1,279
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 48.50-49.20 49.70 50.60
EURO/USD 1.1680-1.1720 1.1750 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3140 1.3200 1.3380
USD/JPY 112.00 113.00-113.90 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,241-1,234 1,224 1,214
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 47.50-47.00 46.50 45.30-44.60
EURO/USD 1.1620 1.1580 1.1510-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2960 1.2900 1.2845-1.2790
USD/JPY 111.60 110.90-110.10 109.50

Intra-Day Strategy (26th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Tuesday on and made its intraday high of 1257.60/oz and intraday low of US$1248.96/oz. Gold up by 0.407% at US$1249.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1289 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1241-1234 and 1224-1216. Buy above 1241-1216 with risk below 1216, targeting 1254-1260 and 1270-1279.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,241-1,234
S2     1,224
S3     1,214
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,249
R2     1,260-1,270
R3     1,279

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.178

Buy
20-DMA   1232.90 Buy
50-DMA  

1249.58

Buy
100-DMA   1248.20 Buy
200-DMA   1230.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.344 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.875 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.60/oz and intraday low of US$16.22/oz. Silver settled down by 0.242% at US$16.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.042 Buy
20-DMA   16.13 Buy
50-DMA   16.65 Sell
100-DMA   17.04 Sell
200-DMA   17.12 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.279 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0568 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US48.64/bbl and made an intraday low of US$45.38/bbl and settled up by 4.587% at US$48.56/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.50-50.60 with stop loss at 50.60; targeting 47.50-47.00 and 46.50-45.30-44.60. Buy above 48.00-44.60 with risk daily closing below 44.60 and targeting 48.50-49.70 and 49.70-50.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     47.50-47.00
S2     46.50
S3     45.30-44.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.50-49.20
R2     49.70
R3     50.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.572 Sell
20-DMA   46.22 Sell
50-DMA   46.57 Sell
100-DMA   48.00 Sell
200-DMA   49.52 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.242 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.454 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1630/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1711/EUR and settled the day up by 0.051% at US$1.1645/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1680-1.1800 targeting 1.1620-1.1580-1.1510 and 1.1460-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800. Buy above 1.1620-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460 targeting 1.1680-1.1720 and 1.1750-1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1620
S2     1.1580
S3     1.1510-1.1460

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1680-1.1720
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.267 Buy
20-DMA   1.1469 Buy
50-DMA   1.1308 Buy
100-DMA   1.1039 Buy
200-DMA   1.0853 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.241 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0104 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3006/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3083/GBP and settled the day up by 0.030% at US$1.3023/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3050-1.3380 with targets at 1.2960-1.2900-1.2845 and 1.2790- 1.2700, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.2960-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3050-1.3160 and 1.3200-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2845-1.2790

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3050-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.923

Buy
20-DMA   1.2973 Buy
50-DMA   1.2890 Buy
100-DMA   1.2758 Buy
200-DMA   1.2582 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.276 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0047 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.94/USD and settled the day down by 0.018% at JPY111.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 111.60-109.50 with targets of 112.00-113.00 and 113.95-114.50 with stop below 108.70. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.60-110.90 and 110.10-109.5.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.60
S2     110.90-110.10
S3     109.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00
R2     113.00-113.90
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.086 Buy
20-DMA   112.64 Sell
50-DMA   111.65 Buy
100-DMA   111.63 Buy
200-DMA   112.07 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   52.613 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.124 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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