AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stock markets sagged on Friday after U.S. tech shares retreated from recent rallies, though optimism about U.S. corporate earnings and the global economy underpinned overall sentiment. Overall, investors' sentiment remained solid on the back of upbeat corporate earning results and a bright global economic outlook. The S&P 500 index is on track to post back-to-back, double-digit quarterly earnings growth for the first time in almost six years. U.S. durable goods orders, released on Thursday, surged 6.5 percent last month, the biggest gain in three years. The bullish report came on the eve of the government's advance second-quarter gross domestic product estimate on Friday. Economists expect the data to show growth picking up to 2.6 percent from 1.4 percent in January-March. A series of Japanese economic data released on Friday came in stronger than expected, with household spending rising more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly falling. If the gains are sustained by month-end it would mark the biggest monthly jump in a year and the ninth consecutive month of increases - the longest such spell since 2003-04. In the currency market, the dollar regained some footing after slumping to a 13-month low against a basket of major currencies the previous day when the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy statement led to the perception that it has grown cautious about soft inflation. The biggest mover in the currency market was the Swiss franc, which fell 0.5 percent against the dollar and 0.6 percent versus the euro, due partly to expectations that the Alpine country is likely to keep easy monetary policy even as the European Central Bank looks to dial back its stimulus.
  • Shipments of key U.S.-made capital goods increased in June for a fifth straight month, suggesting that business spending on equipment helped to boost economic growth in the second quarter. Signs that the economy gathered speed in the last quarter were also bolstered by other data on Thursday showing a sharp narrowing in the goods trade deficit in June and increases in both retail and wholesale inventories. The economy grew at a 1.4 percent pace in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.4 percent in May. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement. But core capital goods orders, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, slipped 0.1 percent last month, suggesting equipment spending could moderate in the months ahead. June's drop was the first since December and followed a 0.7 percent jump in May, which was the biggest gain since January. The increase in equipment spending has mostly been driven by the energy sector, where oil and gas drilling has increased significantly after declining in the aftermath of the collapse in crude oil prices. Momentum is, however, slowing as drilling activity cools. The energy sector recovery is supporting manufacturing by offseting some of the drag from declining motor vehicle production. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy. Imports of goods fell $0.7 billion to $192.4 billion. Separately, both retail and wholesale inventories increased 0.6 percent in June. A smaller goods trade deficit and increased stock accumulation are a boost to GDP growth. While another report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 244,000 for the week ended July 22, layoffs remain low and are consistent with a tightening labor market.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Friday but were still near 8-week highs, buoyed by a decline in U.S. inventories and OPEC's ongoing efforts to curb production. Both benchmarks rose to their highest levels since May 31 in the previous session, buoyed by a rally in U.S. gasoline futures after earlier support from OPEC's latest efforts to cut exports and a sharp fall in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. crude stocks fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels in the week to July 21 due to strong refining activity and an increase in exports, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brimming U.S. crude supplies have been a challenge to production cuts to prop up prices led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S. crude oil production has been on the rise since mid-2016, but it dropped to 9.41 barrels per day (bpd) in the week to July 21, from 9.43 million bpd the week before. The decline was mainly due to a fall in Alaskan output, ANZ bank said. Oil prices have been supported by a further agreement between OPEC and some non-OPEC members to limit Nigerian oil output and encourage several members to comply with their pledged production cuts. Since the world's major oil producers held a meeting in St Petersburg on Monday, crude prices have risen some 6 percent on expectations of deepening cuts. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, said it planned to cap crude exports to 6.6 million bpd in August, about 1 million bpd below the level last year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,264-1,270 1,279 1,288
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 49.20-49.70 50.60 52.00
EURO/USD 1.1720 1.1770-1.1840 1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3140-1.3200 1.3300
USD/JPY 111.60 112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,254 1,249 1,264-1,270
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 48.50 47.50-47.00 46.50
EURO/USD 1.1680 1.1620 1.1580-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.2960 1.2900 1.2780
USD/JPY 110.90-110.10 109.50 109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Thursday on and made its intraday high of 1265.15/oz and intraday low of US$1254.41/oz. Gold down by 0.127% at US$1258.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1264-1290 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1254-1249-1241 and 1234-1224. Buy above 1260-1226 with risk below 1226, targeting 1270-1279 and 1288-1296.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,254
S2     1,249
S3     1,264-1,270
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,264-1,270
R2     1,279
R3     1,288

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

1235.25

Buy
20-DMA   1235.25 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.21

Buy
100-DMA   1249.45 Buy
200-DMA   1230.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.201 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.513 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Thursday on made its intraday high of US$16.80/oz and intraday low of US$16.54/oz. Silver settled down by 0.421% at US$16.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.20), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.360 Buy
20-DMA   16.14 Buy
50-DMA   16.65 Sell
100-DMA   17.04 Sell
200-DMA   17.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.643 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.033 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US49.21/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.22/bbl and settled up by 0.904% at US$49.11/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.50-50.60 with stop loss at 50.60; targeting 47.50-47.00 and 46.50-45.30-44.60. Buy above 48.00-44.60 with risk daily closing below 44.60 and targeting 48.50-49.70 and 49.70-50.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.50
S2     47.50-47.00
S3     46.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.20-49.70
R2     50.60
R3     52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.829 Sell
20-DMA   46.43 Sell
50-DMA   46.55 Sell
100-DMA   49.52 Sell
200-DMA   49.52 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.481 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.590 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1649/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1775/EUR and settled the day down by 0.485% at US$1.1675/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1720-1.1900 targeting 1.1680-1.1620 and 1.1580-1.1510 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1900. Buy above 1.1680-1.1500 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1720-1.1770-1.1840 and 1.1900-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1680
S2     1.1620
S3     1.1580-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1720
R2     1.1770-1.1840
R3     1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.693 Buy
20-DMA   1.1512 Buy
50-DMA   1.1341 Buy
100-DMA   1.1072 Buy
200-DMA   1.0865 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.880 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.01121 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3050/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3158/GBP and settled the day up by 0.419% at US$1.3064/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3140-1.3380 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2845, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3160-1.3200 and 1.3300-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2780

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100
R2     1.3140-1.3200
R3     1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.026

Buy
20-DMA   1.2984 Buy
50-DMA   1.2895 Buy
100-DMA   1.2777 Buy
200-DMA   1.2590 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   70.189 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0056 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Thursday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.70/USD and settled the day up by 0.053% at JPY111.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-109.00 with targets of 111.60-112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.10
S2     109.50
S3     109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.284 Buy
20-DMA   112.48 Sell
50-DMA   111.62 Buy
100-DMA   111.55 Buy
200-DMA   112.14 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   30.313 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.191 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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