AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares turned positive on Monday, shrugging off a new North Korean missile test as investors turned their attention to a raft of global economic data and earnings this week, while the dollar crept up but remained capped by U.S. political concerns. That strong performance came despite a slip in official Chinese manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices in July, although they stayed above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Investors remained wary after North Korea conducted a missile test late on Friday that it said proved its ability to strike the U.S. mainland. The U.S. responded by flying two bombers over the Korean peninsula on Sunday. S&P E-mini futures were down almost 0.1 percent on Monday. Markets are awaiting speeches by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Tuesday, for further insight into whether the central bank has turned more dovish in light of recently muted inflation. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on data including euro zone core inflation for July on Monday; the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, at which it is expected to stay on hold, and U.S. manufacturing conditions, due Tuesday; the Reserve Bank of India's meeting on Wednesday, at which it is expected to cut rates; and Bank of England on Thursday, where it is likely to leave rates unchanged. A raft of private manufacturing surveys will also be released on Tuesday. In commodities, oil prices rose for their sixth straight session on tightening U.S. supplies and the threat of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector.
  • The dollar struggled on Monday, wallowing near a 2-1/2-year low against the euro, weighed down by U.S. political uncertainty and uninspiring U.S. data that added to doubts about whether there will be another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Growth in the world's largest economy picked up to 2.6 percent in the second quarter, matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters, but growth in the first quarter was revised down to 1.2 percent. U.S. labor costs also rose less than expected in the second quarter, data on Friday showed, adding to concerns that inflation will remain low. Deepening U.S. political uncertainty was also expected to keep the greenback on the defensive. President Donald Trump on Friday replaced his White House chief of staff, Reince Priebus, installing retired General John Kelly in his place, in a major shake-up of his top team. Hopes that the Trump administration will implement tax reforms and economic stimulus in the near future, seen as dollar-positive factors, also faded after the U.S. Senate on Friday failed to dismantle Obamacare, in another political setback for the president. The U.S. central bank said last week it expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon." It also noted that both overall inflation and a measure of underlying price gains had declined and said it would "carefully monitor" price trends.
  • Oil prices hit a two-month high on Monday, lifted by a tightening U.S. crude market and the threat of sanctions against OPEC-member Venezuela. The price rises put both crude benchmarks on track for a sixth consecutive session of gains. Prices have risen around 10 percent since the last meeting of leading members by the OPEC and other major producers, including Russia, when the group discussed potential measures to further tighten oil markets. The United States is considering imposing sanctions on Venezuela's vital oil sector in response to Sunday's election of a constitutional super-body that Washington has denounced as a "sham" vote. But traders said the biggest price supporter was currently a tightening U.S. oil market. U.S. crude inventories have fallen by 10 percent from their March peaks to 483.4 million barrels. In production, U.S. output dipped by 0.2 percent to 9.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week to July 21, after rising by more than 10 percent since mid-2016. Drilling for new U.S. production is also slowing, with just 10 rigs added in July, the fewest since May 2016. The tighter market was also visible in the price curve, which shows backwardation in the front end. Backwardation is a market condition in which prices for immediate delivery of a product are higher than those later on. Despite the signs of a tighter market in the United States, supplies in China remain plentiful. China's June crude inventories rose to the highest level since September 2016, marking the third month of gain, data from the official Xinhua News Agency showed. Crude stocks rose 4 percent to 30.57 million tonnes (around 224 million barrels), while total oil products stockpiles inched up to 18.1 million tonnes.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st July 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,279 1,288 1,296
Silver-XAG 16.80-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 50.60-51.50 52.00 52.65
EURO/USD 1.1770-1.1840 1.1900 1.1975
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3300 1.3375
USD/JPY 110.90-111.60 112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st July 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,264 1,254 1,249-1,241
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.70-49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1680 1.1620 1.1580-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3000 1.2960 1.2900-1.2780
USD/JPY 110.10-109.50 109.10 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (31st July 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Friday on and made its intraday high of 1270.69/oz and intraday low of US$1270.69/oz. Gold down by 0.127% at US$1269.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1270-1290 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1264-1254-1249-1241 and 1234-1224. Buy above 1264-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1270-1279 and 1288-1296.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,264
S2     1,254
S3     1,249-1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270-1,279
R2     1,288
R3     1,296

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.603

Buy
20-DMA   1238.14 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.56

Buy
100-DMA   1250.18 Buy
200-DMA   1230.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.376 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.838 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed down Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.73/oz and intraday low of US$16.50/oz. Silver settled down by 1.087% at US$16.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.05), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.80-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.577 Buy
20-DMA   16.18 Buy
50-DMA   16.65 Sell
100-DMA   17.03 Sell
200-DMA   17.10 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.643 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.038 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US49.78/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.84/bbl and settled up by 1.282% at US$49.77/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.60-52.65 with stop loss at 52.65; targeting 49.70-49.20 and 48.50-47.00. Buy above 49.70-47.00 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 50.60-51.50 and 52.00-52.65.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.70-49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.60-51.50
R2     52.00
R3     52.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.932 Sell
20-DMA   46.78 Sell
50-DMA   46.52 Sell
100-DMA   48.01 Sell
200-DMA   49.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   98.899 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.918 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1670/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1763/EUR and settled the day up by 0.642% at US$1.1749/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1770-1.1975 targeting 1.1700-1.1620 and 1.1580-1.1510 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1900. Buy above 1.1700-1.1500 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1720-1.1770-1.1840 and 1.1900-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1680
S2     1.1620
S3     1.1580-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770-1.1840
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.449 Buy
20-DMA   1.1533 Buy
50-DMA   1.1352 Buy
100-DMA   1.1083 Buy
200-DMA   1.0869 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.566 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.01176 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3050/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3158/GBP and settled the day up by 0.558% at US$1.3134/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3140-1.3380 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2845, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3160-1.3200 and 1.3300-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3090-1.3000
S2     1.2960
S3     1.2900-1.2780

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3375

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.404

Buy
20-DMA   1.2995 Buy
50-DMA   1.2899 Buy
100-DMA   1.2786 Buy
200-DMA   1.2595 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.189 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.32/USD and settled the day down by 0.485% at JPY110.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-109.00 with targets of 111.60-112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.10-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.257 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Sell
50-DMA   111.60 Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Buy
200-DMA   112.17 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   22.281 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.312 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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