AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Tuesday as investors looked to a barrage of economic data around the world to confirm recent signs the global economy is in fine fettle with inflation staying well contained. Strong inflows from mainland investors via the stock connect program linking Hong Kong and the mainland are seen to be helping drive the recent rise in Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, softening U.S. inflation in recent months prompted investors to bet the Federal Reserve will adopt a patient approach to further interest rate increases. Indeed, besides the United States, recent data from other parts of the world suggest a 'goldilocks' scenario where growth is fast enough to create jobs but not so rapid that it would lead to runaway inflation. A private survey showed growth in China's manufacturing quickened in July, as output and new orders rose at the fastest pace since February on strong export sales. South Korea's trade data also showed the country's exports grew at robust pace in July, led by shipments of memory chips and electronic storage devices. All of these data will be followed by preliminary flash estimates of euro zone gross domestic product at 0900 GMT, and then U.S. spending and manufacturing data, due at 1230 GMT and 1400 GMT respectively. The Chinese yuan hit 10-month highs in both onshore and offshore trade. U.S. political turmoil also weighed on the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed his communications director, Anthony Scaramucci, just over a week after naming him to the job. An administration official said Trump's new chief of staff, retired Marine Corps General John Kelly, who sources said was seeking to impose order and discipline on a White House riven with factions and backbiting, asked for Scaramucci's removal.
  • The dollar skidded to a six-week low versus the yen on Tuesday; its outlook clouded by U.S. political turmoil and doubts over whether there will be another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Uncertainty on the U.S. political front was seen as weighing on the greenback, after President Donald Trump ousted recently hired White House communications chief Anthony Scaramucci on Monday. Declining expectations that Trump will be able to get plans for tax reforms and infrastructure spending through Congress have weakened expectations for U.S. growth and inflation, putting pressure on the dollar. July's drop marked its fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest such stretch since the December 2010 through April 2011. Traders might trim their bullish bets on the euro for now and look for chances to buy the euro on dips, as they look to U.S. economic data this week for fresh clues on the dollar's overall direction, said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia-Pacific for OANDA in Singapore. "I don't think they are going to change their overall bias that the euro is going to be higher," Innes added U.S. economic data this week include the jobs report on Friday. Investors will also focus on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due later on Tuesday. The Australian dollar rose to as high as $0.8043 earlier on Tuesday, after a private survey showed that growth in China's manufacturing quickened in July.
  • Oil prices rose to two-month highs on Monday, ending the strongest month of the year for crude futures, boosted in part by expectations of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector and as supply concerns have waned in recent weeks. During the trading day, chatter centered around potential U.S. Treasury sanctions targeting the country's oil sector in response to Venezuela's Sunday election which Washington denounced as a "sham." That helped boost prices prior to settlement due to concern about possible limits on oil imports from Venezuela or exports of U.S. fuel to that country. After the close, however, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions limited only to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Some OPEC and non-OPEC members will meet on Aug. 7-8 in Abu Dhabi to assess how the group can increase compliance with production cuts that began on Jan. 1. A Reuters survey on Monday indicated output from OPEC members rose, with June production revised up by 200,000 bpd. In Europe, a production outage at Royal Dutch Shell Plc's (RDSa.L) 404,000 barrel-per-day Pernis refinery in the Netherlands following a fire sent benchmark European diesel margins to their highest since November 2015 at $14.60 a barrel. Drilling for new U.S. production is slowing, with just 10 rigs added in July, the fewest since May 2016. However, U.S. shale production is not rolling over, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, who said producers may ramp up production now that oil has rallied.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,296 1,305
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 50.60-51.50 52.00 52.65
EURO/USD 1.1975 1.1975 1.2080
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3140-1.3200 1.3375
USD/JPY 112.00 112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,264 1,254 1,279-1,288
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.70-49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1720-1.1680 1.1620
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3000 1.2960 1.2900-1.2780
USD/JPY 110.10-109.50 109.10 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (1st August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Monday on and made its intraday high of 1270.89/oz and intraday low of US$1265.65/oz. Gold down by 0.051% at US$1269.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,270-1,264
S2     1,254
S3     1,279-1,288
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,296
R3     1,305

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.3100

Buy
20-DMA   1240.56 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.98

Buy
100-DMA   1250.19 Buy
200-DMA   1230.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   95.673 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   6.876 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Monday on made its intraday high of US$16.86/oz and intraday low of US$16.65/oz. Silver settled down by 0.418% at US$16.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.05), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.077 Buy
20-DMA   16.22 Buy
50-DMA   16.65 Sell
100-DMA   17.03 Sell
200-DMA   17.10 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.313 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.038 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US50.39/bbl and made an intraday low of US$49.16/bbl and settled up by 0.50% at US$50.18/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.60-52.65 with stop loss at 52.65; targeting 49.70-49.20 and 48.50-47.00. Buy above 49.70-47.00 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 50.60-51.50 and 52.00-52.65.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.70-49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.60-51.50
R2     52.00
R3     52.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.932 Sell
20-DMA   46.95 Sell
50-DMA   46.50 Sell
100-DMA   48.03 Sell
200-DMA   49.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   96.721 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.051 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1722/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1844/EUR and settled the day up by 0.808% at US$1.1840/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1840-1.2080 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1770-1.1620 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1770
S2     1.1720-1.1680
S3     1.1620

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1975
R2     1.1975
R3     1.2080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.088 Buy
20-DMA   1.1562 Buy
50-DMA   1.1367 Buy
100-DMA   1.1096 Buy
200-DMA   1.0875 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.187 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.3090-1.3000 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3096/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3223/GBP and settled the day up by 0.647% at US$1.3213/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3140-1.3380 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2845, breakage above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3160-1.3200 and 1.3300-1.3380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3090-1.3000
S2     1.2960
S3     1.2900-1.2780

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3140-1.3200
R3     1.3375

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.404

Buy
20-DMA   1.2995 Buy
50-DMA   1.2899 Buy
100-DMA   1.2786 Buy
200-DMA   1.2595 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.189 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.361% at JPY110.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.90-109.00 with targets of 111.60-112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.10-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.257 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Sell
50-DMA   111.60 Buy Buy
100-DMA   111.51 Buy
200-DMA   112.17 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   22.281 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.312 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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