AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slid on Thursday, led by falls in South Korean tech shares, as investors locked in recent gains after Wall Street's Dow Jones Industrial Average broke the 22,000 barrier for the first time in its 121-year history. Some Seoul shares took an additional hit from President Moon Jae-in's new tax plan. In New York overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped the 22,000 mark for the first time on the strength in Apple shares following its earnings. The S&P 500 gained 0.05 percent, hovering just below its record high touched last week, supported by upbeat earnings and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve's policy tightening will move ahead only slowly. U.S. inflation has been contained even as the country's labor market appears to be in its best shape in many years, with the jobless rate staying near a 17-year low. A report by private payrolls processor ADP showed on Wednesday that private U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in July, slightly below economists' expectations, although payroll gains in June were revised up to 191,000 from an originally reported 158,000. Market participants expect the more closely watched government employment report due on Friday to show a solid expansion in U.S. job creation. In the currency market, the dollar has been losing its luster as the euro zone and a few other countries have been slowly winding back stimulus. The European Central Bank, which is buying 60 billion euro ($71 billion) bonds per month to shore up euro zone economies, is expected to unveil a plan to wind down the asset purchase program in coming months. The common currency has strengthened sharply against the safe-haven Swiss franc, having gained more than four percent in less than two weeks to 1.1488 francs. The British pound held near its highest in almost 11 months against a broadly weaker dollar ahead of the Bank of England's "Super Thursday", which could shed light on how soon interest rates could be lifted. Sterling has been supported in recent weeks by expectations the bank might finally be getting ready for a hike after a series of hawkish comments from policymakers, though Governor Mark Carney could be more cautious.
  • U.S. private employers added 178,000 jobs in July, below economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 185,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 151,000 to 225,000 jobs added. Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised up to 191,000 from an originally reported 158,000 increase. The report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics. The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment. Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 180,000 jobs in July, down from a gain of 187,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to have increased by 183,000.
  • Oil dipped on Thursday as a rally that has pushed up prices by almost 10 percent since early last week lost momentum despite renewed signs of a gradually tightening U.S. market. Strong demand in the United States was supporting prices, while high supplies from OPEC producers were restricting further gains, traders said, pointing to a range-bound market. U.S. crude prices held below $50 per barrel despite record gasoline demand of 9.84 mn bpd last week and a fall in commercial crude inventories in the week to July 28 of 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels, according to the U.S. EIA. That's below levels seen this time last year, an indication of a tightening U.S. market. Traders said ongoing high supplies by the OPEC were capping prices. The high OPEC supplies come despite a pledge by the group, supported by other producers including Russia, to restrict output by 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten the market. Trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that crude oil shipments by OPEC and Russia, which excludes pipeline supplies, hit a 2017 high of around 32 million bpd in July, up from around 30.5 million bpd in January. BMI Research said that the industry had adapted to the low oil prices. This followed U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs saying earlier this week that the oil industry had successfully adapted to oil prices around $50 per barrel. HollyFrontier Corp (HFC.N) said it plans to run its five refineries at or slightly above their combined capacity of 457,000 barrels per day (bpd) in third quarter. Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said Wednesday's price rise had more to do with technical trading than fundamentals.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270 1,279-1,288 1,296
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 49.70 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1900 1.1975 1.2080
GBP/USD 1.3220-1.3300 1.3375 1.3450
USD/JPY 110.90-111.60 112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254 1,249-1,241
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1770 1.1720-1.1680
GBP/USD 1.3140 1.3090-1.3000 1.2960
USD/JPY 110.60-109.50 109.10 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Wednesday on and made its intraday high of 1272.66/oz and intraday low of US$1262.79/oz. Gold down by 0.160% at US$1266.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254
S3     1,249-1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270
R2     1,279-1,288
R3     1,296

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.551

Buy
20-DMA   1244.37 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.26

Buy
100-DMA   1251.96 Buy
200-DMA   1230.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.055 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.063 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$16.92/oz and intraday low of US$16.45/oz. Silver settled down by 0.779% at US$16.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.805 Buy
20-DMA   16.27 Buy
50-DMA   16.62 Sell
100-DMA   17.02 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.557 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.003 Buy Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US49.63/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.52/bbl and settled down by 1.66% at US$48.58/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.70-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.70
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.676 Sell
20-DMA   47.28 Sell
50-DMA   46.45 Sell
100-DMA   48.02 Sell
200-DMA   49.49 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.529 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.991 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1793/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1909/EUR and settled the day up by 0.457% at US$1.1854/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1840-1.2080 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1770-1.1620 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800
S2     1.1770
S3     1.1720-1.1680

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1840-1.1900
R2     1.1975
R3     1.2080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.761 Buy
20-DMA   1.1607 Buy
50-DMA   1.1393 Buy
100-DMA   1.1118 1.0884 Buy
200-DMA   1.0884 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.458 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0135 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3190/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3249/GBP and settled the day up by 0.136% at US$1.3220/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3220-1.3450 with targets at 1.3140-1.3090 and 1.3050-1.2960, breakage above 1.3450 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.3140-1.2960 with stop loss closing below 1.2960 targeting 1.3220-1.3300 and 1.3380-1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3140
S2     1.3090-1.3000
S3     1.2960

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3220-1.3300
R2     1.3375
R3     1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.285

Buy
20-DMA   1.3042 Buy
50-DMA   1.2916 Buy
100-DMA   1.2816 Buy
200-DMA   1.2611 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.350 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0085 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.71/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down by 0.326% at JPY110.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.60-109.50 with targets of 110.90-111.60 and 112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.655 Buy
20-DMA   111.92 Sell
50-DMA   111.53 Buy
100-DMA   111.40 Buy
200-DMA   112.25 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   35.605 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.435 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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