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  • U.S. employers likely maintained a strong pace of hiring in July while raising wages for workers, signs of labor market tightness that could clear the way for the Federal Reserve to announce next month a plan to start shrinking its massive bond portfolio. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will probably show that non-farm payrolls increased by 183,000 jobs last month after surging 222,000 in June. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.3 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in June. That would be the biggest increase in five months. But the year-on-year increase in wages will probably slow to 2.4 percent as last year's sharp rise drops out of the calculation. Average hourly earnings increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months to June and have been trending lower since surging 2.8 percent in February. Lack of strong wage growth is surprising given that the economy is near full employment. Economists expect the Fed will announce a plan to start reducing its $4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in September. Sluggish wage growth and the accompanying benign inflation, however, suggest the U.S. central bank will delay raising interest rates again until December. The Fed has raised rates twice this year, and its benchmark overnight lending rate now stands in a range of 1 to 1.25 percent. Wage growth is crucial to sustaining the economic expansion after output increased at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, an acceleration from the January-March period's pedestrian 1.2 percent pace. The unemployment rate is forecast to have dropped one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.3 percent, a 16-year touched in May. It has dropped four-tenths of a percentage point this year and matches the most recent Fed median forecast for 2017. July's anticipated employment gains would be close to the 180,000 monthly average for the first half of the year. The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. But after six months in office, the Trump administration has failed to pass any economic legislation and has yet to articulate plans for tax reform and infrastructure as well as most of its planned regulatory roll-backs The jobs composition in July likely mirrored June's. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast increasing by 5,000 jobs. But employment in the automobile sector probably fell further as slowing sales and bloated inventories force manufacturers to cut back on production.
  • A gauge of world stocks declined as Wall Street dipped on Thursday, although European shares rallied, while sterling hit a nine-month low against the euro after the Bank of England's policymakers kept interest rates unchanged. The weaker growth outlook bolstered expectations the British central bank will be less likely to raise rates in the near future. Stocks fell to session lows late in the session after the Wall Street Journal said Special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington to investigate allegations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, but quickly recouped those losses. U.S. labor market data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, a positive factor that may keep the Federal Reserve on course to announce plans next month to start reducing its massive bond portfolio. Claims data, however, has no bearing on July's employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period.
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday, as cautious buying dried up after U.S. crude rose to near $50 a barrel, with concern about high crude supplies from producer club OPEC offsetting the previous day's data showing record U.S. gasoline demand. OPEC crude oil exports rose to a record high in July, driven largely by soaring exports from the group's African members, according to a report by Thomson Reuters Oil Research. Strong demand in the United States has been supporting prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported record gasoline demand of 9.84 million barrels per day (bpd) for last week and a fall in commercial crude inventories of 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels C-STK-T-EIA. That was below levels seen this time last year, an indication of a tightening U.S. market. But traders said high production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was limiting price gains. OPEC and other producers including Russia have promised to restrict output by 1.8 million bpd until the end of March 2018 to help support prices and draw down inventories. Yet OPEC output hit a 2017 high of 33 million bpd in July, up 90,000 bpd from the previous month, a Reuters survey showed this week, led by a further recovery in supply from Libya, one of the countries exempt from the deal. There are signs that the oil industry has adapted to an era of low prices and can produce and operate at levels that would previously have been uneconomic. U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs said this week the oil industry had successfully adapted to oil prices around $50 per barrel.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270 1,279-1,288 1,296
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.35 17.70 18.10
Crude Oil 49.70 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1900 1.1975 1.2080
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3300 1.3375 1.3450
USD/JPY 112.00 113.00-113.90112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254 1,249-1,241
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.20 48.50 49.70
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1770 1.1840-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3110 1.3090-1.3000 1.2960
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.10 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (4th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Thursday on and made its intraday high of 1270.70/oz and intraday low of US$1256.85/oz. Gold up by 0.176% at US$1268.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254
S3     1,249-1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270
R2     1,279-1,288
R3     1,296

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.551

Buy
20-DMA   1244.37 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.26

Buy
100-DMA   1251.96 Buy
200-DMA   1230.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.055 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.063 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Thursday on made its intraday high of US$16.68/oz and intraday low of US$16.41/oz. Silver settled up by 0.483% at US$16.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.80-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.80-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.805 Buy
20-DMA   16.27 Buy
50-DMA   16.62 Sell
100-DMA   17.02 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.557 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.003 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US49.94/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.72/bbl and settled down by 1.351% at US$48.90/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.70-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20
S2     48.50
S3     49.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.70
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.653 Sell
20-DMA   47.48 Sell
50-DMA   46.43 Sell
100-DMA   48.01 Sell
200-DMA   49.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.921 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1829/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1829/EUR and settled the day up by 0.118% at US$1.1868/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1840-1.2080 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1770-1.1620 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800
S2     1.1770
S3     1.1840-1.1900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1840-1.1900
R2     1.1975
R3     1.2080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.820 Buy
20-DMA   1.1633 Buy
50-DMA   1.1406 Buy
100-DMA   1.1130 Buy
200-DMA   1.0889 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.345 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0139 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3137/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3267/GBP and settled the day up by 0.627% at US$1.3137/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3220-1.3450 with targets at 1.3140-1.3090 and 1.3050-1.2960, breakage above 1.3450 look for further upside with 1.3450 as targets. Buy above 1.3140-1.2960 with stop loss closing below 1.2960 targeting 1.3220-1.3300 and 1.3380-1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3110
S2     1.3090-1.3000
S3     1.2960

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3300
R2     1.3375
R3     1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.676

Buy
20-DMA   1.3049 Buy
50-DMA   1.2921 Buy
100-DMA   1.2822 Buy
200-DMA   1.2615 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.783 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0085 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Tuesday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.71/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down by 0.326% at JPY110.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.60-109.50 with targets of 110.90-111.60 and 112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00
R2     113.00-113.90112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.202 Buy
20-DMA   111.70 Sell
50-DMA   111.49 Buy
100-DMA   111.37 Buy
200-DMA   112.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.558 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.435 Sell

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