AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks advanced on Monday, taking their cue from Wall Street, while the dollar moderated but retained most of its gains after a stronger-than-expected July job report. But Chinese blue chips managed only slight gains, with investors hesitant to stake out fresh positions ahead of a raft of July data due this week and next. Following July foreign exchange reserves data on Monday, China will release trade data on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. Bank lending numbers could come later this week while industrial output, retail sales and investment readings will be released next Monday. Analysts expect the data will show China's economy carried strong growth momentum into the third quarter. The dollar eased on Monday following a strong climb on Friday after data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 209,000 jobs last month, and June's employment gain was revised higher. Growing signs of labor market tightness offer Federal Reserve policymakers some assurance that inflation will gradually rise to the central bank's 2 percent target, and likely clear the way for a plan to start shrinking its massive bond portfolio later this year. But market pricing shows investors are still about evenly divided over whether the Fed will also opt to raise rates again in December. The dollar was also buoyed by comments from National Economic Council director Gary Cohn that the U.S. administration is working on a tax plan that would bring corporate profits back to the United States. But Monday's pull back in the dollar backs some views in markets that Friday's rally may not have legs. South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, agreed to apply maximum pressure and sanctions on North Korea in a telephone call on Monday, while China expressed hope that North and South Korea could resume contact soon. But North Korea's foreign minister said Seoul's proposals to improve ties with the isolated state show a lack of sincerity when South Korea is also imposing sanctions on the North with the U.S. The U.N. Security Council unanimously imposed new sanctions on North Korea on Saturday aimed at pressuring Pyongyang to end its nuclear program. The sanctions could slash North Korea's $3 billion annual export revenue by a third.
  • The dollar held the bulk of its gains on Monday after an upbeat U.S. jobs report lifted it off 15-month lows, with data lined up this week seen as key to whether the greenback's rebound could be sustained in the longer term. The greenback had reached that 15-month trough after a series of weak U.S. indicators added to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's plan to start shrinking its $4.2 trillion bond portfolio and the pace of its rate hikes amid political turmoil gripping Washington. But closely watched U.S. employment data released on Friday helped the dollar snap out of its downturn. Non-farm payrolls increased by a bigger-than-forecast 209,000 jobs last month, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent to match expectations after rising 0.2 percent in June. While the strong jobs data helped the dollar by keeping prospects of a December interest rate hike by the Fed alive, markets are looking for further evidence of robust fundamentals in order to firm up the U.S. currency's upturn. U.S. producer price index numbers for July will be released on Thursday and the consumer price index figures are due on Friday.
  • Oil prices edged down on Monday but still held near nine-week highs, supported by robust U.S. jobs data last week and a slight fall in the U.S. drill rig count, even as rising output from OPEC reined in crude markets. Prices for both benchmarks have been holding near their highest since late May, when oil producers led by the OPEC extended a deal to reduce output by 1.8 million bpd until the end of next March. U.S. employers added an above-forecast 209,000 workers in July and raised wages, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday in its monthly jobs report. U.S. drillers cut one oil rig in the week to Aug. 4, bringing the total count down to 765, energy services firm Baker Hughes also said on Friday. Despite developments in the United States that have supported prices, global oil markets remain under pressure from high and rising production, analysts said. Meanwhile, OPEC's crude oil exports in July rose to a record high of 26.11 million bpd, most of which came from Nigeria, according to a report by Thomson Reuters Oil Research last week. Libya, though, one of the OPEC members who has been exempt from the OPEC-led production cuts, was facing a gradual shutdown of its 270,000-bpd Sharara oilfield after the closure of a control room Officials from a joint OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee are set to meet in Abu Dhabi on Monday and on Tuesday to discuss ways to boost compliance with their supply reduction agreement.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,270 1,279-1,288
Silver-XAG 16.50 16.90-17.35 17.70
Crude Oil 49.70 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1840-1.1900 1.1975
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200 1.3300
USD/JPY 112.00110.90-111.60 112.00 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,254 1,249-1,241 1,235
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1720-1.1680 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.2960 1.2900 1.2825
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.10 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (7th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Friday on and made its intraday high of 1270.07/oz and intraday low of US$1254.04/oz. Gold down by 0.817% at US$1258.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,254
S2     1,249-1,241
S3     1,235
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,279-1,288

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.801

Buy
20-DMA   1249.14 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.03

Buy
100-DMA   1252.36 Buy
200-DMA   1230.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.152 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   6.371 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Friday on made its intraday high of US$16.73/oz and intraday low of US$16.17/oz. Silver settled down by 2.460% at US$16.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.50-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50
R2     16.90-17.35
R3     17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.261 Buy
20-DMA   16.34 Buy
50-DMA   16.58 Sell
100-DMA   17.00 Sell
200-DMA   17.08 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.038 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.017 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US49.62/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.47/bbl and settled up by 1.226% at US$49.52/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.70-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.70
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.410 Sell
20-DMA   47.76 Sell
50-DMA   46.43 Sell
100-DMA   48.02 Sell
200-DMA   49.49 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.964 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1829/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1884/EUR and settled the day down by 0.817% at US$1.1177/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1975 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1770-1.1620 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1770
S2     1.1720-1.1680
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1840-1.1900
R3     1.1975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.510 Buy
20-DMA   1.1647 Buy
50-DMA   1.1417 Buy
100-DMA   1.1139 Buy
200-DMA   1.0892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.889 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0126 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3023/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3163/GBP and settled the day down by 0.730% at US$1.3041/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3090-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2825, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2825

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3090-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.827

Buy
20-DMA   1.3053 Buy
50-DMA   1.2924 Buy
100-DMA   1.2828 Buy
200-DMA   1.2619 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.019 Sell Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0058 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY109.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.04/USD and settled the day up by 0.590% at JPY110.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.60-109.50 with targets of 110.90-111.60 and 112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00110.90-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.202 Buy
20-DMA   111.70 Sell
50-DMA   111.49 Buy
100-DMA   111.37 Buy
200-DMA   112.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.558 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.435 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING