AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish Asian shares went flat on Tuesday as disappointing Chinese trade data clouded the otherwise upbeat outlook on global growth, leaving currencies and commodities becalmed in summer doldrums. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gave up modest early gains to be barely changed, though it was still within a whisker of its recent decade high. Beijing reported exports and imports both grew much less than expected in July, breaking a run of better numbers from the Asian giant that had fueled optimism on global growth and a rally in industrial commodity prices. Ratings agency Fitch this week lifted its outlook for the world economy for this year and next. Volumes were light as the news flow dried up with the U.S. Congress and President Donald Trump on vacation and a bumper profit season drawing to a close. Chinese rebar steel futures surged as much as 7% to their highest in more than four years. Currencies were quieter as the dollar tried to keep a grip on the gains made after upbeat U.S. jobs data last week. Traders are now awaiting U.S. inflation data later in the week but it is widely expected to remain tepid, adding to views the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious policy tightening stance. The dollar steadied in Asian trading on Tuesday, maintaining most of the gains it made on last week's robust employment data that kept hope alive that the U.S. Federal Reserve could still increase interest rates this year. Investors also await clues as to when the Fed will begin shrinking its $4.2 trillion bond portfolio. U.S. producer prices for July due on Thursday and consumer price index figures on Friday will give investors a clue about the extent to which the strengthening labour market is spilling over into inflation. Last Fridays' jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by a bigger-than-forecast 209K jobs in July, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% to match expectations after rising 0.2 percent in June. Comments on Monday from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari had a muted impact on the dollar. Bullard said the Fed can leave interest rates where they are for now because inflation is not likely to rise much even if the U.S. job market continues to improve. The PCE price index excluding food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, has been running at 1.5% and has trended away from the central bank's 2% target in recent months. Bullard's assessment provides market participants with further credence as to why the dollar has not strengthened much, even after the solid jobs data, Northey said.
  • Gold prices edged higher in Asia on Tuesday with a weaker dollar bringing on physical buying interest in India and China, the world's top two importers, ahead of China trade data later in the day. China is expected to report exports rose 10.9% in July year-on-year, down from an 11.3% gain in June, while imports rose 16.6%, compared to a 17.2% increase in the previous month for a trade balance surplus of $46.08 billion, wider than the $42.77 billion in June. Overnight, gold prices traded slightly above breakeven on Monday, bouncing off session lows after the dollar came under pressure following comments from a top Federal Reserve official. Gold continued to pare losses, following a slump on Friday on the back of strong nonfarm payrolls data suggesting the U.S. economy could sustain further rate hikes while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that low interest rates are “likely to remain appropriate” over the near term. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Inflation data later in the week, however, are expected to provide the yellow metal with fresh direction, as market participants are keen to establish whether the slowdown in inflation has continued unabated. The slowdown in inflation, has weighed on the prospect of rate hikes later this year, pressuring both the dollar and bond yields while helping the yellow metal trade close to seven-week highs. The producer price index and the consumer price index data are slated for Thursday and Friday respectively. A slump in trading volumes due to the holidays (in Asia), however, is expected to keep gold prices range bound.
  • Oil prices fell as much as 2 percent on Monday on selling triggered by a rebound in production from Libya's largest oil field, along with worries about higher output from OPEC and the United States. Output at Libya's Sharara field was returning to normal after a brief disruption by armed protesters in the coastal city of Zawiya. The field has boosted Libya's oil production, which climbed to more than 1 million bpd in late June. Doubts have emerged about the effectiveness of output cuts by the OPEC and other big producers including Russia. OPEC output hit a 2017 high in July and its exports hit a record. Officials from a joint OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee are meeting in Abu Dhabi on Monday and Tuesday to discuss ways to boost compliance with the deal to cut 1.8 million bpd in production. Oil output in the United States remained high even though Baker Hughes data on Friday showed a cut of one drilling rig in the week to Aug. 4, bringing the U.S. rig count down to 765. U.S. weekly oil production hit 9.43 million bpd in the week to July 28, the highest since August 2015 and up 12 percent from its most recent low in June last year. Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday it expects to see U.S. oil production growing by 900,000 bpd in the fourth quarter versus a year earlier, up from a forecast of 860,000 bpd earlier.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,270 1,279-1,288
Silver-XAG 16.50 16.90-17.35 17.7017.70
Crude Oil 49.70 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1840-1.1900 1.1975
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200 1.3300
USD/JPY 110.90-111.60 112.00 -0.449

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,254 1,249-1,241 1,235
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1720-1.1680 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2960 1.2900 1.3090-1.3140
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.10 110.90-111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (8th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Monday on and made its intraday high of 1259.82/oz and intraday low of US$1255.66/oz. Gold down by 0.0619% at US$1257.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,254
S2     1,249-1,241
S3     1,235
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260
R2     1,270
R3     1,279-1,288

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.899

Buy
20-DMA   1251.24 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.96

Buy
100-DMA   1252.88 Buy
200-DMA   1230.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.152 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   6.371 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Monday on made its intraday high of US$16.28/oz and intraday low of US$16.11/oz. Silver settled up by 0.184% at US$16.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 16.50-18.10 with stop loss above 18.10; targeting 16.30-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50
R2     16.90-17.35
R3     17.7017.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.261 Buy
20-DMA   16.34 Buy
50-DMA   16.58 Sell
100-DMA   17.00 Sell
200-DMA   17.08 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.038 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.017 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US49.68/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.51/bbl and settled up 0.484% at US$49.32/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.70-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.70-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.70
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.410 Sell
20-DMA   47.76 Sell
50-DMA   46.43 Sell
100-DMA   48.02 Sell
200-DMA   49.49 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.964 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1769/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1813/EUR and settled the day up by 0.186% at US$1.1794/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1975 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1770-1.1620 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1770
S2     1.1720-1.1680
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1840-1.1900
R3     1.1975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.335 Buy
20-DMA   1.1664 Buy
50-DMA   1.1429 Buy
100-DMA   1.1149 Buy
200-DMA   1.0896 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.212 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0122 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3012/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3058/GBP and settled the day down by 0.053% at US$1.3033/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3090-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2825, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2960
S2     1.2900
S3     1.3090-1.3140

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3090-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.715

Buy
20-DMA   1.3062 Buy
50-DMA   1.2927 Buy
100-DMA   1.2834 Buy
200-DMA   1.2623 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.549 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0048 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.63/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.91/USD and settled the day up by 0.0271% at JPY110.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 110.60-109.50 with targets of 110.90-111.60 and 112.00-113.00-113.95 with stop below 109.00. Sell below 111.6-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.10 and 109.5-108.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     110.90-111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     -0.449

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.067 Buy
20-DMA   111.39 Sell
50-DMA   111.49 Sell
100-DMA   111.35 Sell
200-DMA   112.34 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.327 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.449 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING