AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares and U.S. stock futures slipped on Wednesday and investors sought havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold and the yen as tensions on the Korean peninsula escalated, with Pyongyang saying it is considering plans to attack Guam. A spokesman for the Korean People's Army said in a statement that it was "carefully examining" plans for a missile attack on the U.S. Pacific territory, which has a large American military base. The comments came just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump told North Korea that any threat to the United States would be met with "fire and fury", rattling markets globally. Financial markets have tended to quickly shake off North Korea's periodic saber-rattling in the past, dismissing it as bluster, but tensions have lingered this year amid signs that it is making progress in its ballistic missile program and on Trump's growing frustration with Pyongyang. The yen tends to benefit during times of geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world's biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption investors there will repatriate funds should a crisis eventuate.
  • China's exports and imports grew much less than expected in July, raising concerns over whether global demand is starting to cool even as major Western central banks consider scaling back years of massive stimulus support. China and Europe have been driving an increasing share of global growth this year as political conflict stymies stimulus policies being pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump. But while China's overall trade continued to grow at a healthy clip in July, at 8.8 percent it was the slowest rate this year. Some analysts chalked up the softer readings to seasonal or one-off factors, but others said weaker import growth could be the first tangible sign of a long-expected slowdown in the world's second-largest economy after a surprisingly strong first half. China's export growth slowed to 7.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the weakest pace since February and cooling from an 11.3 percent rise in June, official data showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected a 10.9 percent gain. China's imports rose 11.0 percent, the slowest growth since December and down from a 17.2 percent rise in the previous month. That also missed expectations of 16.6 percent growth. That left the country with a trade surplus of $46.74 billion for the month, the highest since January, compared with forecasts for $46.08 billion and June's $42.77 billion. The July trade figures are preliminary.
  • Gold prices scored robust gains on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump warned North Korea it would be "met with fire and fury" if it continued to make threats against the U.S. His comments came on the back of a report that the hermit state had created a miniaturized nuclear weapon that could fit in its missiles. Just hours after Trump's warning, Pyongyang replied it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located. The escalating tension prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and high yielding currencies, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc and gold. With no major economic reports on Wednesday's calendar, market players looked ahead to monthly inflation indicators due later in the week for fresh clues on the timing of the next Fed rate hike. A report on U.S. producer prices for July is due out on Thursday and the consumer price inflation report will be released on Friday. The yellow metal has been well-supported in recent weeks as fading expectations for a third Fed rate hike this year combined with deepening political turmoil in the White House boosted the appeal of the precious metal. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Crude futures fell for a third day on Wednesday despite a bigger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories reported by an industry group, with doubts lingering over OPEC's ability to restrain supply as promised. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. dropped more than expected last week as imports declined and refinery runs increased, while gasoline inventories grew unexpectedly, the API said late on Tuesday. Crude inventories declined by 7.8 mn barrels in the week to 478.4 mn, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels The U.S. EIA will release its weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. On Tuesday, it trimmed its forecast for gains in U.S. oil production for 2018, though it increased its outlook for output growth this year. The market seems immune to bullish signs of falling stockpiles as the OPEC and other major producers struggle to maintain compliance with a deal to cut output. A recovery in Libya's oil output and higher production in Nigeria have complicated OPEC's efforts to curb supply, while U.S. shale oil drillers have ramped up production. Libya and Nigeria are OPEC countries that are exempt from the agreement to limit production through March 2018. Officials from a joint OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee said on Tuesday that they expect greater adherence to the pact to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in production. Saudi state oil company Aramco will cut allocations to its customers worldwide in September by at least 520,000 bpd, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,270 1,279-1,288 1,296
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.35 17.70 18.35
Crude Oil 49.20-49.70 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1800 1.1840-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200 1.3300
USD/JPY 110.00 110.90-111.60 112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254 1,249-1,241
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.00 15.60 15.30-14.90
Crude Oil 48.50 47.50-47.00 46.10
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1680 1.1600 1.1520
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.2960 1.3000-1.2960 1.2825
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.50 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (9th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Tuesday on and made its intraday high of 1265.14/oz and intraday low of US$1251.41/oz. Gold down by 0.307% at US$1260.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254
S3     1,249-1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,270
R2     1,279-1,288
R3     1,296

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.871

Buy
20-DMA   1253.56 Buy
50-DMA  

1250.92

Buy
100-DMA   1253.10 Buy
200-DMA   1230.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.156 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   6.120 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Tuesday on made its intraday high of US$16.46/oz and intraday low of US$16.21/oz. Silver settled up by 1.169% at US$16.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 16.90-17.35 and 17.70-18.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.90-18.35 with stop loss above 18.35; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.35
R2     17.70
R3     18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.181 Buy
20-DMA   16.40 Buy
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.098 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.019 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US49.76/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.84/bbl and settled down 0.649% at US$48.96/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.20-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 48.50-46.10 with risk daily closing below 46.00 and targeting 49.20-49.70-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.50
S2     47.50-47.00
S3     46.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.20-49.70
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.694 Sell
20-DMA   48.09 Sell
50-DMA   46.42 Sell
100-DMA   48.03 Sell
200-DMA   49.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.000 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.858 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1714/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1823/EUR and settled the day down by 0.373% at US$1.1750/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1770-1.1975 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1720-1.1520 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1680
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1520

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1840-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.034 Buy
20-DMA   1.1678 Buy
50-DMA   1.1438 Buy
100-DMA   1.1158 Buy
200-DMA   1.0899 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.953 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0109 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2951/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3052/GBP and settled the day by 0.337% at US$1.2989/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3090-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2825, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3000-1.2960
S2     1.3000-1.2960
S3     1.2825

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3090-1.3140
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.917

Buy
20-DMA   1.3066 Buy
50-DMA   1.2928 Buy
100-DMA   1.2839 Buy
200-DMA   1.2626 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.249 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0036 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.05 with targets of 110.00-110.90 and 111.60-112.00-113.00 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.0-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.5-109.10 and 108.50-108.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00
R2     110.90-111.60
R3     112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.077 Buy
20-DMA   111.22 Sell
50-DMA   111.47 Sell
100-DMA   111.33 Sell
200-DMA   112.37 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   42.364 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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